Success is affected by a variety of factors. Sure, people get lucky and win the lottery while other people spend years focusing on excellence and perfecting their talents without ever catching a break… But, when it comes down to it, most of us usually need a mixture of excellence and luck to succeed.
Not surprisingly, circumstances also affect success. Last year, the pandemic left millions of workers unemployed whereas, this year, many employers can’t find workers. Was the loss of jobs simply “bad luck?” Is the inability to find workers due to a lack of excellence? It’s difficult to say when circumstances are not black and white if it was due to excellence or luck.
In contrast, many efforts like sports and skilled trades require a certain level of excellence to succeed. The application process for elite colleges provides a good example of this. Hundreds of thousands of students with excellent grades, test scores, and experiences apply to the top universities. Many of these universities admit only 3-5% of the applicants. Thus, like many efforts, there is a level of excellence required to participate, but luck can play a part in the final selection process.
So, how do we change our efforts to develop better chances of success?
When it comes to luck, there are lots of ways to improve your chances:
TRY. As Wayne Gretzky said, “Only one thing is ever guaranteed, that is that you will definitely not achieve the goal if you don’t take the shot.” So, buying more lottery tickets or applying to more schools can improve your chances!
Understand your environment. This can include the economy, culture, demographics, etc. You clearly have better chances of succeeding in today’s environment than during the pandemic. Women and minorities are also gaining more employment opportunities than in the past.
Look at more alternatives. The discussion should not be retail versus E-commerce, but how to maximize both. Outsourcing and expert resources should be regular considerations. Automation and the development of inexpensive accounting, inventory, and financial tools can create significant improvements.
Prioritize. This is a critical tool to improve what we perceive as luck. Using the 80-20 rule, eliminating ineffective programs, and focusing on winning results can all benefit effectiveness. For example, I am always amazed at the time and emotion we spend caring about sports teams that have no chance of winning.
In general, there is more potential in improving excellence and effectiveness rather than focusing on luck. Some ways to boost excellence:
Find what you do best. Walt Disney once said, “Do what you do so well that they will want to see it again and bring their friends.” This is one of the best mantras for excellence. Do I (and does our team) have a sense of pride and passion for our efforts?
Spend more time reviewing the processes of change versus excellence. The debate of pursuing improved excellence versus change is affected by a number of issues. We need to understand how problems affected by goals versus tactics can require different solutions. Here are some examples where organizations simply need to understand their new environment and execute better:
Demographics: The world is simply getting older and more ethnically diverse. For example, minority births represent more than 50% of current U.S. births.
Digital transformation: Businesses need to change rather than just execute. Opportunities like the cloud, Google, CRM systems, digital phones, apps, etc. are simply changing the processes, costs, and marketing of business. Amazon and other online retailers are revolutionizing the need for traditional brick and mortar stores. Similarly, sharing sites like Uber and Airbnb are revolutionizing their industries.
Adapt and fully implement change. Businesses are subject to more radical change and need to build mechanisms into their processes. While we will face more uncertainty and instability, we need to focus on changing and simplifying processes to reduce the risks. Strategies like pivoting and develop/test/measure/adapt need to be built into our organizations.
Focus on your customers. Are you satisfying their product, service, and value needs? For example, many companies have improved results by setting a goal of exceeding rather than just meeting customer needs.
Develop a stronger pricing strategy. There are numerous tools to improve results without deteriorating your brand. Packaging efforts like bundling and unbundling, quantities, timing, quality, the Internet, and service are all elements that should be part of pricing strategies. For example, Costco and Four Seasons Hotels follow quite different, but successful value strategies.
Set goals and measure results. Focus on judgement measures as well as quantitative. We must have greater awareness of what, how, and why we are measuring. In particular, it is sometimes easier to measure activity (visits, clicks, customers) than results (sales, conversions, and profits).
Pay attention to how bias and prejudice affect decisions. Last year, everyone criticized the NBA for not hiring black coaches. This year, most of the hiring changes were black. The best part was that race did not seem to be a part of the process.
Excellence and luck are both important for success. They need to be understood and managed rather than viewed as excuses. Understanding the risk, the rewards, and the role experience and skill play in our decisions can improve outcomes. Don’t allow fear, uncertainty, or tradition to lower your potential and prevent you from trying something new.
Everyone’s situation is different—you may start with a little luck and need to focus on excellence or you may be at the top of your game, but just can’t catch a break. Wherever you find yourself, take a step back and look at what you’re working with—what do you need more of? Excellence or Luck? And what will you do to obtain it?
Contact us for a FREE evaluation and get an alternative perspective on your business. We’d love to help you identify ways to adapt to current trends. No one has time for BS—so we’ll cut straight to the point and answer any questions you have. Reach us at:
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business and President & CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. For more information, please visit our website: https://www.startupconnection.net/
When it comes to decision-making, the buzzwords are analytics, science, and facts. These are definitely important aspects to consider, but we must be careful not to ignore the influential and (often) unconscious factors: guilt and denial.
Examples of how guilt and denial influence decision-making:
Sexual harassment scandals are riddled with guilt and denial. The result is delayed progress and little to no corrective action. For example, a few years ago, several leaders introduced an effort that would require independent judgement of sexual harassment cases in the military. However, the military argued that they would manage it themselves, but literally nothing happened. The new leadership team has finally agreed that independent management is required, but it took years for any action to actually be taken.
Many financial advisors recommend a 60%-40% division between stocks and bonds for personal investing. First, they frequently try you use a simple solution rather than customize for individual needs. Second, it has been proven over 10-20 years that stocks have outperformed bonds by at least 10-20%, which has cost investors. Many advisers are in denial and refuse to acknowledge their errors while continuing to advise against changes to portfolios.
The pandemic produced great fear and uncertainty. However, there is clear evidence that economic improvement and the vaccine can rapidly improve things. Despite this, many people seem to be in denial (about the effectiveness of the vaccine and/or the possibility of economic recovery). The result is a deceleration in vaccinations, a continuation of people resisting proper mask use, and a standstill in returning to normal life.
Analysis, statistics, and data can greatly improve our understanding of guilt and denial. However, we also need to acknowledge that the parameters, method of analysis, misinformation, sources, and bias can significantly alter results and conclusions.
Some things to consider:
One of the biggest changes in traditional business is the lack of understanding regarding goals and measurement. We can analyze the strengths of our team and focus on accounting tools like sales, gross profit, EBITA, inventory turn, R.O.I., present value, etc. However, e-commerce and Internet business evaluations are based more on growth, execution, and retention. Consequently, we sometimes deny that clicks, conversions, retentions, and interaction are replacing more traditional measures.
Bias itself is a form of denial and it is one of the greatest complications when it comes to accuracy in the scientific analysis of decisions. This includes statistical problems like sampling, measurement, and development of information.
I also believe that social bias can be more impactful than statistical bias. This includes our preconceived perceptions and assumptions. I’m always amazed that many programmed employee selection tools outperform interviews—especially for jobs requiring specific skills. (One rather surprising bit of evidence that supports this finding is that 3% of the male population is over 6 feet 2 inches tall. However, 33% of CEOS are over 6 feet 2 inches tall.) In particular, tests remove factors like unconscious age, sex, and racial discrimination. Cultural and environmental elements also affect bias: Dress, demographics, weather, location, and culture all affect perceptions in the decision-making process.
Risk also plays a critical part in creating guilt and denial. Frankly, I believe we all need more risk, but there are plenty of people who will deny this out of fear. We tend to think of it as a taboo concept and it’s really not—once you understand it. In order to benefit from risk, you need to define what risk is to you. Risk needs to be managed rather than feared. Understanding the risk, the rewards, and the importance of each can help you improve outcomes. Don’t allow fear, uncertainty, guilt, or tradition to prevent you from trying something new. Only those who dare to risk going too far can find out how far one can go.
A more open and honest culture that encourages communication and collaboration can provide a greater understanding of guilt and denial. Empower your staff and management and trust your employees. This requires hiring and training good people, giving them the authority they need to do their jobs well, and understanding that they will make mistakes at times. Encouraging and supporting open dialogues sends the message that issues will be taken seriously and addressed appropriately.
As we’ve seen, analysis, statistics, and data can greatly improve decision-making. However, we must also acknowledge that the parameters, method of analysis, misinformation, sources, bias, denial, and guilt can greatly alter perceptions, results, and conclusions.
To avoid these traps, try incorporating a “devil’s advocate” approach in the decision process. Just take a moment to look at things from a different perspective—it might help you see the bigger picture more clearly. Maybe some self-reflection will debunk a previously believed theory or, perhaps, it will strengthen your convictions. Either way, you (and your decisions) will be better for it.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. This combination has been the key to client success. We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write him at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at 914-632-6977
Let’s face it: Bureaucracy has lost much of its effectiveness. The entire system needs a dramatic overhaul. Many aspects of bureaucracy actually cause reduced organizational effectiveness. Hierarchy, which implies power based on position, limits the impact of new research and expertise in decision-making. Even Max Weber, one of the original advocates of bureaucracy, understood that it could be threatened when focusing on “the rules” overshadows the actual goals. This happens constantly, which means the system is broken. When things aren’t getting accomplished because we’re stuck following ineffective procedures, it’s time to change the process. We’ve all experienced this. How many times have you found yourself unable to complete (what should be) a simple task because of a flawed system? Ever find yourself passed around from person to person and no one seems to have an answer for you?
We find this model works better for us!
Bureaucracy also lacks the vision and flexibility to deal with innovation and the increased pace of change in our environments. In short, bureaucracy, rather than performance, becomes the goal. My worst nightmare regarding bureaucracy is the phrase, “We’ve always done it that way.” It’s a refusal to consider alternatives and, thus, a recipe for failure.
Even more perplexing is the fact that we continue to ignore some proven models of success. Open systems and collaboration, in my opinion, are like winning the trifecta at the horse track. They have been around for a long time, but are just now becoming the norm for success. They reject bureaucracy, authority, hierarchy, and closed decision-making processes. They encourage participation, diversity, new rules, and to some extent, chaos.
It should come as no surprise that open systems are superior and continuing to do things “the way we’ve always done it” is a dead-end. But, society as well as businesses fail to recognize that old paradigms and structures are failing:
Large corporate structures (print publications, big banks, and brick and mortar retailers) are all gradual losers, or even worse. Even Jamie Dimon of Chase recognizes that banks have allowed Fin-Tech startups to threaten their future growth.
Companies and society continue to do what they have done in the past, often with poor results. Despite massive economic and political efforts, issues like income inequality, healthcare, and infrastructure investment will continue to hold our economy back.
How do you move away from bureaucracy and toward open communication?
Innovation and Discipline
Innovation and discipline can coexist. It requires improving autonomy at all levels as you simultaneously increase discipline. For example, Google, among other big corporations, are developing artificial intelligence (AI) programs to write and develop artistic works like music and art. They argue that this technology will greatly enhance an artist’s ability to create. Others disagree, saying that it will just replace artists.
My own experience in the knitting industry showed me that automation greatly enhances an artist’s potential and reduces mundane tasks. (At one time, mechanics had to spend hours making chain links to design a new sweater.) I believe that similar improvements are evident in areas like digital photography and inventory management.
Focus and Diversification
Some businesses try to randomly pursue diverse options by simply throwing s**t at the wall and seeing what sticks. Others complete so much research and planning that, in the process, aspects like goals, probabilities, and outcomes are overshadowed or forgotten. Business owners need to identify priorities and focus. From there, test and adopt or change as opportunities or issues arise. It’s important to remember that many plans are based on wrong assumptions or are poorly executed and, therefore, do not succeed or are unable to adjust to change.
For example, I was working with a client who was trying to execute over 15 different educational programs and was stressed out, over budget, and not managing effectively. We simply cut out the least effective programs, which saved money and, as a result, were able to allot additional attention and resources to the more effective ones. Focusing your strategy can be accomplished with a few simple efforts:
Measure, Estimate, Prioritize, and Adapt.
Follow the 80-20 rule.
Make mistakes and learn from them.
Be open to change and feedback.
Experience and Expertise
In his book “Outliers,” Malcolm Gladwell became famous for stating that, “10,000 hours of practice are required to become a world-class expert.” I am not sure it is 10,000 hours, but my experience indicates that experience and expertise are probably the most important factors in achieving success. That doesn’t mean you need expertise in everything, but it does mean you need at least a hook in the field you are pursuing. And if you know you are lacking expertise in a critical area, I suggest hiring someone to help.
For example, right-brain creatives typically don’t like financial analysis so it’s usually a good idea for them to hire an accountant. In the last couple of weeks, I have had clients with seemingly great ideas and passion who overestimated their gross margins by 10-20%. They simply didn’t do the detailed financial work and didn’t understand that those numbers could make a huge difference between profit and loss.
This argument is not intended to ignore the importance of passion, commitment, innovation, testing, and even mistake making. I’m just saying that both individuals and organizations need to realistically assess the risk of failure and the reward of success. Expertise and experience are critical for accurately evaluating opportunities and new innovations.
Risk and Evaluation
Are all of the aspects of a decision understood? Do you know the probability of reward, the amount of the reward, and the value of the reward? For example, what are the goals of your efforts? My clients are usually small businesses who need to make a profit and earn a living. Thus, they frequently pursue less risk.
In contrast, venture capital firms are frequently pursuing growth and worry whether the enterprise will be large enough to generate large returns. Therefore, they expect a certain amount of loss as well as some lost investments in order to generate large growth and profits in other areas. Where does your business stand? And how much can you afford to risk?
Analytics and Intuition
The increased use of analytics over intuition has been significant in improving the understanding and results of decision-making. While there are no quick and simple resolutions, there are a few simple rules to improve the decision process using both analytics and intuition.
‘Outcomes…normally we just measure the height of the files.’
Analytics is simply the increased use of research, models, probability, risk, numbers, and analysis to improve decision-making. In some cases, it has proved to be a valuable tool to understand and improve decisions or simply validate prior intuition—particularly where there is plenty of stability and historical data. For example, I have helped several of my clients improve their businesses by focusing on the 20 percent of customers or products, which we know, statistically, accounts for 80 percent of their sales.
Forget Fear.
Few sports teams, sales calls, or competitions achieve more than a 50 percent success rate. Rather than dwell on and sulk over losses, analyze your mistakes and research how to improve. Additionally, cultivate a business culture that values feedback, encourages communication, and supports collaboration. Open and honest communication on all levels is the only way to move past mistakes in a productive manner.
Empower Employees.
Giving your staff and management teams the freedom to make decisions and take (reasonable) risks can result in improved productivity. When you hire and train talented and trustworthy people, you can rest assured that they will do their jobs to the best of their ability and, ideally, add value to your business. When employees feel trusted and are given the autonomy to take chances, they’re more likely to think outside the box and offer alternative solutions. This authority in decision-making also means that employees will make mistakes at times and it’s important to remember, once again, that without failure, there is no success.
Look Beyond Your Circle.
It’s imperative to have external resources for obtaining information and receiving feedback. You need people who will tell you the truth without sugarcoating it. Make sure you have a reliable network that understands your business needs.
In general, I recommend more consideration of the process of decision-making. How good is our information, what are the consequences of mistakes and how much risk can we afford? I believe with the exception of issues like safety we can afford more risk and openness. We generally are overly concerned with the consequences of mistakes rather than the potential of risk.
And finally, let go of bureaucracy. Yes, it can be scary to transition to something new, but familiarity doesn’t equal success. In fact, sticking with something just because it’s comfortable usually isn’t beneficial. And, shockingly enough, sticking with something that doesn’t work (i.e. bureaucracy) also doesn’t work. It’s broken and it’s not worth fixing. It’s time to replace it.
Dr. Bert Shlensky is the president of www.startupconnection.net. He and his team of experts focus on helping businesses develop integrated customer-focused marketing programs that are key to business startup success. Dr. Shlensky’s most recent book is entitled, “Passion and Reality and Small Business Success.” You can reach Dr. Shlensky at: 914-632-6977 or email him at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net
The pandemic is rapidly teaching us that personal, organizational, and structural change is going to be tougher and faster than expected. Consequently, we must accept that dramatic solutions are necessary to manage, what is now, an entirely new landscape. We all need to be adapting to the pandemic.
There are several significant changes that have already occurred (and are not going to disappear in the near future) that are worth taking into consideration:
We are implementing financial deficits at local, state, and federal levels that, prior to this, were never considered acceptable.
Health care and service workers are receiving (long overdue) recognition and appreciation. Experts are also saying practices like home care and virtual appointments, which are eliminating marginal procedures and improving efficiency in medical care, will become a more permanent standard.
Social distancing policies are forcing behaviors such as hugging, kissing, and shaking hands to be revolutionized and avoided.
The magic word seems to be “remote.” Tele-doctors, homeschool e-learning, working remotely, food delivery and pickup are becoming the new normal, but standards, expectations, and productivity are still unstable and unsustainable. Adjustments will need to be made to accommodate shifting trends and other obstacles. For example, many pizza parlors are experiencing dramatic increases, but the volume is mostly at dinner rather than a steady all-day flow. Parents are finding it difficult to work while simultaneously caring for their children. And, teachers are struggling to manage students and cover the same amount of material in a virtual classroom.
On one hand, we need faster and more dramatic change. On the other, we need more science, testing, and technology to ensure success. Imagine how an increase in things like control groups, curves, models, and logistics could improve our effectiveness and efficiency as we are adapting to the pandemic.
There are several key areas where dramatic and structural change will be necessary to adequately adapt to a vastly changed environment:
The most dramatic (also evidenced in the 2008 financial crises) is that the big will survive much more effectively than the small. In the last few decades, the number of banks and public companies has reduced by over 30 percent. In contrast, the number of restaurants (about 600,000) has remained the same for years. It’s estimated that 10-20% of those and other small businesses will not survive this crisis. That will significantly alter the opportunities and challenges of small business.
We need to focus more on efficiency and restructuring over simple cost reduction. Amazon and other tech companies have become the main targets of criticism regarding questionable practices. However, we should also recognize their contributions in expanding things like communication, home delivery, cloud sharing, etc. For example, I have a consumer products client who has lost much of her retail business. However, she has more than offset it (via sales on Amazon and on her own website) with higher margins and lower prices.
Better management of increased risk and uncertainty is required. Companies are unwilling and unable to forecast 2021, which makes 2022 equally uncertain. Thus, capital, operations, personnel, and marketing decisions are basically on hold. However, we can look at history, industry, and probability models to provide a little more predictability. In particular, looking at alternative scenarios and their probable outcomes can be a valuable effort.
Technology will be king. Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple will survive and grow as they become even more innovative and efficient. Traditional retailers with large real estate platforms and margin requirements are at great risk. Consumers are enjoying many aspects of the work-at-home, delivery, virtual lifestyle. These conveniences will be expanded and must be integrated into our systems.
We need to face tough decisions in maximizing our success. While the specifics may be uncertain, most organizations require more technical and analytic skills. Can you provide challenges and opportunities for your best people rather than drowning them in bureaucracy? Can you retrain or replace staff who are less effective? How can you create a supportive culture that values risk-taking, innovation, diversity, and embraces the importance of learning from mistakes?
Learn to prioritize. What is working, what is failing, and how do you devote more resources to the successes? Sometimes our fear of change limits our effort to understand that opportunities, not challenges, have the greatest impact.
The most important aspect of adapting to the pandemic that we’re currently experiencing is to recognize its significance and aggressively find solutions. It does require an openness and willingness to test new ideas. Don’t let emotion or bias affect you. Remember that passion, energy, and commitment are strong determinants of success. Take comfort in the fact that risk can be reduced greatly with testing, research, and analysis. And embrace integrated approaches that incorporate new strategies and activities. As Sheryl Sandberg said:
Dr. Bert Shlensky has an MBA and a PhD from the Sloan School of Management at MIT. He is the President of the New York-based consulting firm, The Startup Connection, where he uses his 30 years of high-level business experience to guide his clients toward maximum sales and profit. For a free consultation, please visitwww.startupconnections.net.
Seems
a bit like an oxymoron, no? Well, that’s exactly what analytics have become
these days: an oxymoron. A real conundrum. On one hand, data helps us predict
change and plan for the future. On the other, that data can be wrong or
misleading and, therefore, really screw things up. So, I say, take it all in,
but then let (most of) it go.
There’s an ongoing debate regarding the roles of data and entrepreneurship. In particular, the increased availability of analytics data and tools is making planning, scheduling, and analysis much simpler and more accurate. Amazon is one of the best examples of using analytics to improve logistics (i.e. more one-day shipping).
In contrast, the argument stands that these tools are less effective than originally expected. The most significant instances are incorrect data, method, and change. If the data is wrong, access to more data does not improve analysis. Mistakes like Boeing, Afghanistan, WE WORK, G.E. and retail stores represent diverse examples where people simply focused on wrong information. The existence and use of the phrase “alternative facts” supports the unnerving idea that it’s easier to make up lies than it is to refute those lies. That alone does not bode well for analytics and data.
Data can also be misleading when a dramatic change occurs.
Disrupters like E-Commerce, ride share apps, and food delivery dramatically
affected markets and parameters. Consequently, significant shifts in culture,
politics, and buying habits also make economic forecasting much less reliable.
Additionally, analysis is dependent on using the right
tools and methods. Many assumptions and approaches may not be appropriate. For
example, investment advisors frequently tout their individual excellence while
changes in the overall market are usually the largest factor in investment
success. Mathematics shows that the more history one has on a topic, the more
accurate the analysis. However, if parameters change, history may become
irrelevant.
This is why we take it all in. Think on it. Absorb it. Let
it all sit for a bit. And then throw most of it out the window.
You should absolutely consider what they teach on the first
day of a statistics course (Validity, Reliability, and Accuracy) rather than
ignore it.
A recap in case you need a refresher:
Validity is simply focusing on whether
your methods are valid. While sampling, correlation, and other tools can improve
performance, the analysis must be valid. For example, many of us predict that
our team will win. However, the odds in most professional leagues are that
about 3% of approximately 30 teams will actually win.
Reliability is the repeatability
of results. Differing results in political polls or verifying results of
medical tests are examples of reliability issues.
Accuracy is just the correctness of
the measurement process. The most violated rule of accuracy is that you are
only as accurate as your least accurate number. There is a famous story about a
museum guard answering a child’s question about how old a dinosaur was. He said
280 million years plus 39 years and 20 days. When asked where the number came
from, he said, ”When I started, they told me it was about 280 million years
old. I have been here 39 years and 20 days.” While this number certainly seems precise, it probably isn’t very accurate.
I would add a fourth factor to this list, which is probably
the most important: Bias. On one hand, bias is a complex mathematical
term correlated with sampling, randomness, analysis, and other things. On the
other, it is how our culture, background, gender, age, and preconceptions etc.
affect our attitudes and decisions. For example, many studies have shown that
we form an opinion about a presentation within 90 seconds of it starting. I
highly recommend that, in dealing with bias, you manage its existence rather
than trying to deny it.
Finally, tools as well as methods of reporting are
dramatically changing. A colleague of mine recently challenged my website saying
it was “too dependent on PowerPoint and Excel.” While these are both great
tools and are the most dominant analytical and presentational methodologies,
they can have many limitations: The information can be old, longitudinal
analytics is frequently lacking, they are not interactive, they are not visual
enough, and they can be very boring and/or misleading. Nothing is worse than being
forced to sit through a PowerPoint presentation that is too long and loaded
with endless Excel sheets.
In summary, analytical tools offer great potential for success, but they need to be utilized properly and in conjunction with intuition to be effective. So, gather all that data and pay close attention to it, but don’t be afraid to toss it all out.
When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster.
Call (914) 632-6977 or email me at bshlensky@startupconnection.net. Don’t leave without signing up for our useful free eBook!
Feeling stumped or overwhelmed? Contact Bert at (914) 632-6977 or Email to start the process. Thanks!
