Whether it’s implementing a business strategy or taking a family vacation, we all want to plan accordingly. We try to rely on analytics and intuition. We look at business trends in an attempt to make educated decisions and we check weather forecasts hoping we won’t get stuck in the rain. And, with so much technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are our fingertips, the ways in which we can make these assessments are abundant. But, how can we know what the best strategy is? When is Analytics most reliable and when should we ignore technology and stick with our instincts?
When it comes to predictable events, Analytics is fantastic for providing insight and additional analysis. Currently, there is significant hype for new AI tools. GPS, improved forecasting, trend analysis, and selection have all experienced dramatic gains. I am amazed, for example, how GPS systems monitor traffic and predict an arrival time. However, it’s noteworthy to ask ourselves if we’re simply using them for efficiency and ignoring important considerations. This is one of the problems of using analytics and intuition.
There are two questions we must ask when using AI and Analytics:
First, are the assumptions, data, analysis, and conclusions really valid?
Second, do we limit the use of intuition and small measures in using these tools?
One of the biggest issues with AI is that we simply accept the results because they are impressive or too complicated to understand. We need to review the validity of the data, measurement, and analysis.
For example, the pandemic will require adjustments for data analysis. How do you compare changes from 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to 2021? In particular, how do you forecast 2022 and beyond? How important is an annual average and should you use 2019 or 2021? The analysis is highly dependent on issues like assumptions, demographics, time periods, etc. The answers can also be more dependent on a specific situation rather than general rules. Forecasting things like workers going back to the office, students going back to the classroom, airline passenger growth, business meetings, entertainment, and apparel trends all have different parameters.
We frequently just assume cause and effect when the relationship can be nonexistent. Statistics make it very easy to assume that a relationship among factors is a straight line. However, most relationships involve a variety of factors, as shown in the chart below:
Significant issues with analytics and intuition also occur when intuition, risk, and low probabilities produce better results than analytics. We all know the lottery is a bad bet, but some people do win. Similarly, many billionaires like Gates, Bezos, Jobs, and Must have achieved fame by pursuing high-risk and out-of-the-box alternatives. Many analytical recommendations encourage the “most likely” rather than the best alternatives.
More importantly, the reality is that outliers create much of the innovation, excitement, and change in our society. Steve Jobs probably said it best: “The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.”
In their new book, Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Simony, and Cass Sunstein point out how Analytics can fail to include key metrics. For example, mood, bias, mental state, etc. can alter judicial decisions. Variables like hunger, how much sleep we got, and personal preferences can all affect decisions.
While using Analytics based on AI has limitations, here are several suggestions to make it more effective:
Keep the goal in sight to improve your decision-making. The goal of Analytics is to improve decision-making and identify great alternatives. Focusing on satisfying investors, suppliers, employees, etc. is simply an invitation to long-term problems. Similarly, you need to understand the goals, timeframe, and precision in your research. Are you simply trying to make a living in a short time or build a giant business that you know will lose money in the first few years?
The biggest problem with decision-making is bias. Whether we admit it or not, we all have biases. Analysists love to discuss mathematical formulas and measurement in affecting bias; however, most bias (especially in small businesses) is simply human. For example, our most recent experience can have a significant impact on decisions.
Keep it simple. Simplify wherever possible. Focus on factors that really affect your business so you can understand them and estimate factors that are not as significant. For example, look at aggregate costs and administrative expenses rather than trying to forecast small items like telephone, utility, and insurance costs.
Be more open. Organizations need to be open to measurement and feedback. Observing, understanding, and sharing financials, operations reports, and sales reports is the first step.
Develop, test, measure, and adapt. Many plans, forecasts, and proposals are done in a static format with one-dimensional analysis and results. Often, these end up being flawed because we live in a more dynamic and interactive world. For example, branding, marketing, pricing, and operations must all be viewed as an integrated program rather than separate and isolated activities. Remember the 80-20 rule, which states that 80% of your sales will come from 20% of your products and/or customers. Are you measuring your sales, key items, and customers?
Embrace change. Don’t just talk about change. Take action! Responding to disruptive change like the pandemic requires finding a way to incorporate data, analysis, and pre-existing models while also embracing out-of-the-box thinking and flexibility.
Don’t neglect key elements of success. Operations, customer service, and logistics are just as important as traditional functions.They present huge opportunities for a business to become more efficient and differentiate itself (i.e. selling on Amazon or bundling products).
Relax. You can’t do everything in one day. Pace yourself and remember that there will always be uncertainty and change. Stay focused and take it one day at a time.
Always be willing to improve. What are your biggest challenges? Where are you overlooking potential opportunities? In what areas could you do better? Remember: more Analytics is generally useful for small businesses; however, one must be sure the foundation, reliability, data, and processes of the Analytics have a firm base.
Understand diversity. Demographics are affected by age, location, socioeconomic status, race, gender, etc. Current events have certainly affected trends relating to racial and female groups. Staying up-to-date on your target consumer and their habits will help inform your decisions. Do you know who your customers are and what demographics they belong to?
Analytics provides astute insights for business decisions and should not be underestimated. However, its value is highly dependent on how effectively it is used and the recognition that intuition is still an important factor. In particular, the more creativity and uncertainty involved in any given situation, the more intuition will be required. It is important to use both analytics and intuition.
Contact us for a FREE evaluation and get an alternative perspective on your business. We’d love to help you identify ways to adapt to current trends. No one has time for BS—so we’ll cut straight to the point and answer any questions you have. Reach us at:
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business & President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. Please visit our website: www.StartupConnection.net for more information.
All of our decisions, both personal and business related, are influenced by issues of support versus tough love. When it comes to small business, I prefer an approach that ensures adequate understanding and support in order to help someone develop the confidence and skills required to make sound decisions. This approach can also facilitate tough love strategies (when needed) that require analysis, reality, and challenge. Choosing the timing and nature of the combination can be made effective.
Training, mentoring, teamwork, and confidence are critical for effective decision-making. Nevertheless, tough love in the form of technical information, probability, and risk are necessary to validate the decision process. In other words, you must develop methods of support to realistically assess the tough love components of decision-making.
Here are some suggestions to achieve that balance:
Start with understanding the culture and participants. For example, I tend to be left brain and more technical. Others are more right brain and supportive. You need both. Yet, many people are too proud and reject help. It’s easy to be so convinced of what you’re saying that you end up ignoring how your listeners will receive your words. For example, if you take into account who your audience is, you can cater how you present your information in order to be more effective. This is especially important when dealing with technical information and strong opinions.
Age, status, education, and reputation of the listener and communicator can all dramatically affect perceptions. We frequently underestimate the importance of the perceptions of analytical information in communicating arguments among different groups. For example, our treatment of minority groups like Asians and Native Americans is frequently not considered. If you don’t understand where your audience is coming from, you’re probably not going to be able to help them or communicate effectively with them.
Improve Decision Making. We like simple and easy solutions. People with great intentions can sometimes lack understanding. Simple, clear, and actionable efforts can resolve this. A simple suggestion: annual analysis is much simpler to understand and analyze unless you need the monthly changes.
Communication also needs a “WIN-WIN” mindset instead of a competitive environment. We know positive feedback is received more favorably and, yet, how often do we see (or even participate in) criticism, blame, and one-upping when we find ourselves in pressure situations? Can you find ways to compromise and look for solutions that benefit all instead of just one? For example, following the 80-20 rule and focusing on the best opportunities is one of the most productive efforts to be supportive and address tough love issues.
Tom Peters’ book, Management by Walking Around, is the best management tool for mitigating the support versus tough love dilemma. It encourages a relaxed atmosphere where one can understand the context of an issue or the background of an individual. A corollary of that tool is maintaining informality, which is important in the pandemic environment. Informal meetings with customers and colleagues as well as informal lunches or social events can be highly beneficial. One of the simplest and best tools to develop support is to simply say please, thank you, and ask, “How are you?”
Environmental issues can be the most ignored factor in creating a culture. Hierarchical structures, formal office settings, and even dress code can affect problem solving. We need to understand and adjust to new rules of communication and collaboration. The pandemic has forced us to adapt in a plethora of ways: work from home, social gatherings, video meetings, etc. And there will continue to be change as the “new normal” becomes more defined. It’s important to keep working to understand the environment and how it affects you and your employees, coworkers, and customers. Furthermore, what type of environment can you create to support your small business?
Organizations and individuals with more open communication are more effective. Practices like “need to know” are simply obsolete. The more people know, the more effective they can be in their work. When everyone is on the same page, more gets done efficiently.
We cannot ignore facts, analysis, and challenges when making decisions. It’s critical to remember that they’re most effective when used to support, improve, and understand decisions rather than simply challenge them. Tools like exploring alternatives, listening to experts, writing things down, and informal communication can frequently improve the process. We also need to consider the accuracy and validity of the information, the risk involved in various decisions, and personal preferences. Like so much in life, it’s about finding the right balance and it won’t be the same for everyone. So, take some time to consider: Where can I afford to be more supportive and where do I need to administer some tough love?
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business & President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. Please visit our website: StartupConnection.net for more information.
Just go for it? Really? Yes, really. Sometimes you need to downplay cautions, history, probabilities, and all the other excuses standing in your way. There will always be reasons to hesitate on any decision, but the bottom line is: You can prepare all you want, but you’ll never be 100% prepared.
While observing organizations, I consistently find that while skills, finance resources, competition, marketing, and operations are critical, it’s actually the intangibles that often make the difference. For example, culture, expectations, and excellence greatly affect success more than we acknowledge.
The world is and will always be ever-changing. So, we should accept more uncertainty and take more chances. Jobs, Bezos, Gates, Zuckerberg, etc. all took incredible risk in order to succeed. Should you go for it? Consider this example of alternatives:
Accepting a $100,000/year job with reasonable certainty of continuity versus embarking on an entrepreneurial venture with the potential of being a multi-millionaire and achieving your dream career. If you’re considering the practical probabilities, risks, and potential of these choices, you’ve ignored the argument to go with your intuition, gut, and passion. And so many of us ignore these things naturally because we were taught to analyze excessively and rely heavily on numbers and statistics. But, in many cases, knowing and calculating an expected value actually has more traps than virtue. For instance, you limit yourself by relying on a projected number and, therefore, may disregard solutions and strategies that could have even greater potential.
It is my belief that we don’t choose passion enough. However, there are several factors that actually make the entrepreneurial path more desirable: 1) you can take a job any time 2) you’ll gain great experience from the entrepreneurial endeavor 3) you’ll probably suffer fewer losses than expected. For example, most young people will experience several jobs changes before they’re 30 anyway… So, why not take some risk pursuing a dream? Go for it!
Passion also acts as an important incentive, which can result in success. Don’t underestimate it! Many experts argue that we achieve only a small portion of our potential because we’re stuck in boring, unsatisfying, and dead-end positions. I have many colleagues who remain in dying industries (like retail) and have suffered for years. They’re stuck in declining companies that have failed to adapt to emerging trends like E-commerce, logistics, and operations. But, what could we achieve if we were able to escape those soul-sucking jobs? As Sheryl Sandberg said, “Consider what you would do if you weren’t afraid.”
So, you’ve decided to “Go For It.” Now what?
Establish successful parameters. We frequently underestimate our denial and overestimate perceived barriers. For example, the pandemic is clearly changing parameters and we need to adapt rather than wait for things to return to the way they were. The entertainment industry, energy companies, work at home options, and urban real estate are all areas that are undergoing dramatic change and will permanently alter the economy as well as our lifestyles. Additionally, technology, E-commerce, productivity improvements, and Zoom are opening the door for more opportunities. Use these changes to your advantage.
Consider social factors. Income inequality, partisanship, racial equality, and diversity are among the social topics that are changing our culture, practices, and awareness. Similarly, the aging and minority populations in our country are creating dramatic shifts in our society. We simply spend too much time on partisan arguments about these issues rather than developing solutions and maximizing opportunities.
Encourage positive change. For example, women are fighting for equal opportunities and treatment. This requires some much-needed cultural adjustments as well as some operational changes like creating proportional bathrooms in sports stadiums. Additionally, working from home is enabling many parents to fill both work and parent duties. An important and needed change is actively recognizing that women have been held back and working to maximize their potential.
Accept failure. (But, don’t quit!) Mistakes are inevitable. Edison may have said it best, “Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.”
Look for the positive and be the positive. We’ve all felt what it’s like to work with/around negative people—their energy sucks everyone else down to their level. We feed off of those around us. Create an atmosphere where everyone lifts one another up. When a problem arises, work together to find a solution. When mistakes happen, look for the lesson to be learned and grow. Everyone will be better for it. A structure that focuses on learning from mistakes will always be more equipped to deal with them when they arise.
Support risk taking. If we know we have support, we are more likely to take (appropriate) risks, which can lead to innovation. When people are afraid, they can’t perform to their full potential. Fear is one of the leading factors that holds us back and prevents us from trying new things.
Focus on collaboration. Make sure the organization has the resources it needs to succeed. That may mean providing additional training, one-on-one feedback, updated equipment/software, or extending deadlines. Understand your organization’s needs and let employees know that they can rely on you to back them up.
Treat people equally and individually. This might sound contradictory, but it simply means that, while everyone should be treated fairly and equally, each person’s individual needs must also be taken into consideration. Some might require more supervision or verbal encouragement while others thrive being left with complete autonomy on a project.
“Going for it” does require a different perspective—you must look to the future and not the past. Here are three different examples that illustrate this idea: 1) Wayne Gretzky was a great hockey player who revolutionized the game. One of his contributions was Gretzky’s rule, which states that you skate to where the puck is about to go, rather than where it’s been. 2) Xerox developed the personal computer in the 1970s, but dropped it when they didn’t see any future. Steve Jobs, who bought the technology for almost nothing, toured the facility in 1979 and presumably hopped around and yelled, “What is going on here? You’re sitting on a gold mine! Why aren’t you doing something with this technology? You could change the world!” 3) Prior to Jobs’ revelation, Moore’s Law was created, which states that operating circuits could double their performance every year. That forecast (which was true for decades) allowed the computer industry to shrink all its components and increase performance annually to plan for new developments on the basis of that expectation.
Think about this: What’s the point of a band covering a song if they don’t change it up and put their own spin on it? So, I suggest: Look at what is, but find a way to see beyond that and run with it. Robert Kennedy’s paraphrasing of a George Bernard Shaw quote is quite fitting: “There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?” And I ask: Which will you be?
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection (www.startupconection.net) is a graduate of Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the president of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business as well as the President & CEO of Sure Fit Products. Having provided counseling to over 2,000 clients, he now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses.
Risk is a critical part of every decision. And, frankly, I think we all need more of it. We tend to think of risk as a taboo concept and it’s really not—once you understand it.
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In order to benefit from risk, you need to define what risk is to you. Some people view risk as the “potential for harm or hazard” (think bungee jumping). I view risk as an “uncertain circumstance in which one manages to maximize the gains.” But, how do you maximize the probability of success?
Here are some key parameters that affect risk-based decisions:
Consider conditions. For example, you have almost certain probability that, in general, October will be cooler than September. However, forecasting a certain day adds risk and uncertainty.
Reduce risk where you can to allow even more risk in other areas. For example, more analytics in sports is creating opportunities to assess strengths/weaknesses and create new winning strategies. It has enabled athletes to take more three-point shots, hit more home runs and longer golf drives, and score more touchdowns. Similarly, surfers used to ride 29-30 waves and now they are comfortable in 50 to 80-foot waves. Jet Ski rescues, inflatable vests, and leashes are among the tools that reduce uncertainty and increase potential.
Know the value and probability of the reward. Winning the lottery has an extremely high reward, but also has low probability. Purchasing investment bonds has lower return than buying stocks, but the risk and volatility of buying stocks is higher.
Value is also affected by the law of diminishing returns, which states that: as the input or value increases, the incremental changes become less important. It is easily summarized by the old saying, “Too many cooks spoil the broth.” Other examples include adding superfluous benefits to an offer, endless presentations, annoying excessive service, or just making the reward dramatically above what is needed or desired. Let’s say you love pie, but only have it once in a while as a treat. In this instance, the value is higher. But, if you eat it every day, it becomes less special and the value decreases. The same goes for a visit with your in-laws: Once a month is good, one a week might be less good, and every day might really be pushing it…
Understand the perceived importance of the reward. People generally regret losses more than they appreciate gains—and that is a key factor to consider when making any decision. When choosing a college to attend, decisions depend on area of course study, school size, location, tuition, the school’s reputation, etc. Are some of these factors more important than others? It varies depending on the individual.
The benefits from risk are a result of integrating the above examples to maximize results. Let’s look at the game of craps as an example: When you roll two dice, there is over a 40% probability you will roll a 6, 7, or 8 and about a 6% probability you will roll a 2 or a 12. So, if you’re placing a bet, knowing the odds (i.e. the probability of the reward) will reduce the risk. Betting is based on your willingness to risk in order to earn higher or lower rewards. The most forgotten aspect of craps (and all betting, for that matter) is that, over the long run, the house wins which is why casinos are so profitable.
Risk needs to managed rather than feared. Understanding the risk, the rewards, and the importance of each can help you improve outcomes. Don’t allow fear, uncertainty, or tradition to lower your potential and prevent you from trying something new. Only those who dare to risk going too far can find out how far one can go.
Key factors to consider to increase the benefits from risk:
Understand all the information. Knowing background, probabilities, and parameters can greatly enhance outcomes. For instance, investment decisions are greatly influenced by history and trends. However, because there is so much change due to the pandemic, the risk is now more volatile and opportunistic. Knowing the circumstances around your decisions is key.
Psychology. Assessing risk has a number of psychological constraints: a) People tend to take more risks to win back losses and less risks to follow up on winnings. b) Marketers love to push fear. When you are buying a car, appliance etc., they push its safety, reliability, and excellence. After you commit, they try selling a warranty. They induce fear by citing all the things that can go wrong. c) We overestimate our skills and luck. Tons of profits are made at casinos and in sports betting based on countless people believing that they can beat the odds.
Think about your decisions and the outcomes. We often perceive decisions as win-lose situations where one-party wins and another loses, but there are different types of decisions. Changing that mentality to “win-win” can have dramatic benefits and we tend to underestimate the opportunities we have to achieve this. For example, who would have believed decades ago that the mergers of Vietnam and Germany would be so successful? So, when making a choice, brainstorm ways to maximize benefits all around.
Rethink your strategy: Zero sum game versus non zero-sum game. Which are you employing? The best negotiations result in both parties winning. This takes collaboration, assessing varying (or even opposing) goals, and increasing the metaphorical “pie.” In particular, try to understand what is important and unimportant for each party involved. For example, many traditional retailers viewed online shopping as a liability in terms of disrupting their regular business. Now, they’re viewing it as a savior, recognizing it’s a safe and effective way to meet the needs of their consumers.
Risk mitigation. The best, simplest, inexpensive, and most effective way to mitigate risk is to gather more information. The more you know about making a decision, the less risk it will involve. Other tools include: insurance, diversification, and leverage. One of the challenges of mitigation is that people often use it to take even more risk and that defeats the purpose.
Listen to your gut. Sometimes you just have to ignore some of the information and go for it. We tend to overthink things or we let fear stop us from taking risks, but there is no gain without trying and no reward without risk. If your intuition is telling you something, it’s usually worth listening.
Risk needs to managed rather than feared. Understanding the risk, the rewards, and the importance of each can help you improve outcomes. Don’t allow fear, uncertainty, or tradition to lower your potential and prevent you from trying something new. Only those who dare to risk going too far can find out how far one can go.
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When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster.
Call (914) 632-6977 or email me at bshlensky@startupconnection.net. Don’t leave without signing up for our useful free eBook!
Feeling stumped or overwhelmed? Contact Bert at (914) 632-6977 or Email to start the process. Thanks!
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The pandemic has caused some chaos, to say the least. The uncertainty and severity of the situation has caused most of us to shift focus, reconsider our efforts and priorities, and question risk. As a result, it’s critical to reexamine how to maximize opportunities, results, and challenges. While there’s still plenty of unpredictability, there are several clear rules to follow that will help you prioritize and improve results.
I believe the 80-20 rule (which states 80% of results are from 20% of sales) is one of the most useful guidelines. Reassess and renew efforts on programs that have the most potential. But, it is equally important to eliminate unproductive efforts.
Bigger is getting more important: For example, between 40-50% of online consumer sales are on Amazon. You can’t ignore that impact and its affect on results.
Prioritize innovation. Culture, execution, measurement, marketing, and operations are critical elements that support success from innovation.
Learn to prioritize more effectively. Focus on what you’re good at and pay less attention to your weaknesses. For example, I have a client who has the best product in the industry, but charges a little more money. She has achieved success by moderating some prices, but mostly by developing messaging that explains her quality difference.
Limit objectives to a handful. Limiting strategic priorities allows you to focus on what matters most. It can also serve as a way to drive a decision when faced with difficult trade-offs, which can also increase results. We are frequently encouraged to develop multiple alternatives; yet, spending time on weak alternatives can be extremely wasteful.
Make the hard decisions. We need to be flexible in order to evaluate alternatives and respond to change, but we also need to make firm choices to manage challenges and trade-offs.
Address critical vulnerabilities. We tend to focus on strengths and opportunities and ignore challenges, but this can lead to neglecting a vital aspect of a plan. For example, logistics, customer service, and safety are frequently overlooked, but they can provide important differentiation that will make your business stand out.
Provide specific action plans. They should be concrete enough that participants throughout the organization can understand what to focus on and what to avoid.
Eliminate costly and unproductive activities. This is key. Consider cell phones, email, social media, and the Internet: Most of it is time-consuming junk that can be eliminated or reduced (or, at least, not viewed every minute of the day). Develop a master list of activities and then categorize them into areas like: urgent, maintenance versus development, cost, risk, results, probability of success etc. This will help you see which activities need more focus and which need less as you prioritize.
Consider culture. It’s a critical component of establishing priorities. Sometimes, “now is not the time” is an appropriate response. Other times, opportunities for change are required and you need to be as prepared as possible. For example: Issues like safety, stress, and uncertainty have become critical elements and adapting to the pandemic is unavoidable.
Opportunities to expand your market will arise—so keep the 80-20 rule in mind as things change. Some efforts could be declining while new critical opportunities may be emerging. These instances are worth serious consideration—especially when the investment is minor. You may open up a door to a broader 20 percent.
So remember: prioritization can produce dramatic results. Spend more time analyzing your priorities and watch how that affects your results.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection (www.startupconection.net) has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the president of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business, and President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. Having provided counseling to over 2,000 clients, he now focuses on working with select start-up and small businesses.
When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster.
Call (914) 632-6977 or email me at bshlensky@startupconnection.net. Don’t leave without signing up for our useful free eBook!
Feeling stumped or overwhelmed? Contact Bert at (914) 632-6977 or Email to start the process. Thanks!
