When we expect a certain level of quality from ourselves, we tend to work harder to meet those expectations. If we don’t believe we’re capable of achieving greatness, we probably won’t. In other words, we perform to the standards expect from ourselves. We must turn expectations into probable results.
My favorite musical has always been My Fair Lady because of the Pygmalion effect, which infers that having positive expectations leads to enhanced performance, which results in a higher probability of success. The implication is that confidence and energy will increase if we believe in ourselves. On the other hand, a negative self-perception results in a significantly lower chance of succeeding. What we think we’re capable of, therefore, basically becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. We can turn expectations into probable results.
It’s important to attribute this effect to human behavior rather than science. For example, in a coin flip, the odds of getting “heads or tails” will not change even if you’re full of hope and positive thinking. Similarly, expectations and attitude can help when it comes to things like sports. So, a team might play better if they believe in themselves (the movie Major League is a great and hilarious example of this). BUT, talent, practice, and consistency also play important roles in success—so positivity can’t guarantee that a lousy team will win a championship.
Additionally, if you enjoy what you’re doing, you also have a higher probability of success.
So, when we discuss “projections,” it’s important that expectations and probability (how likely it is that something will happen) are both taken into consideration. For example, when flipping a coin, the probability of getting “heads” is 50 percent. However, the probability of winning the lottery is 1 out of millions. This illustrates how probability is greatly affected by percentage, BUT it is also affected by volatility and variance. For instance, the pandemic is creating highly uncertain and volatile circumstances, which makes it nearly impossible to accurately forecast anything.
Despite this, it is my opinion that dubious circumstances can create opportunities if we remain patient and seek alternative solutions. For example, many restaurants are experiencing immense difficulties, but pizza parlors seem to be thriving. Perhaps the takeaway here is that restaurants should look into cooking and preparing family-style meals to deliver. Another option would be to partner with delivery services like Uber Eats or Postmates, if they haven’t already. At some unknown point, we will go back to attending sporting events, concerts, eating out, and traveling, but until then, we must shift our focus to addressing the needs of the time. That might mean expanding your work-from-home options or pivoting to a different target audience—in other words: it will take work, but that’s business.
Now, in order to effectively utilize expectations and probability, it’s imperative to develop, test, measure and adapt different approaches. Many plans, forecasts, and proposals are done in a static format with one dimensional analysis and results. Those are usually all wrong because we live in a more dynamic and interactive world. For example, branding, marketing, pricing, and operations must all be assessed together rather than viewed separately as isolated activities. Similarly, businesses need to have alternatives plans in place and ready to go so they can adapt quickly. Mistakes will occur. So what? Steve Jobs was fired, Thomas Edison tested thousands of light bulbs before succeeding, and Walt Disney’s editor told him that he “lacked imagination and had no good ideas.”
So how do you use expectations to create positive outcome?
When it comes to the rapid changes that occur constantly in our society and environment, we are frequently afraid of risk. The Internet, digital technology, mobile phones, Google, and Amazon are all examples of technology that is transforming our lives. Therefore, relying on old methods or a “we’ve always done it that way” mentality may actually be riskier than making a change.
Similarly, business analysis, big data, the cloud, and other management tools are great resources to mitigate risk. I’ve done a lot of work testing different pricing strategies to improve performance, especially on the Internet. You can’t just stick with what used to work and, therefore, your expectations must include the assumption that you will need to adapt frequently.
Furthermore, your probability of success increases when your expectations include actionable goals:
If you expect big results, consider taking bigger risks.
If you expect accuracy, focus on obtaining better data and improving your testing, analysis, and measurement tools.
If you expect to keep up with competitors, include innovation and hire exceptional people (this might involve tolerating some “deviant” behavior from employees, but that’s often a side effect of utilizing out-of-the-box thinkers).
If you expect long-term success, create an open company culture that embraces diversity, change, collaboration, communication, and pushes boundaries.
If you expect greatness from your staff, empower them to do their jobs to the best of their abilities. This requires hiring and training good people, trusting them and giving them the authority, they need to perform effectively, and understanding that they will sometimes make mistakes.
If you expect to address and solve problems, develop reliable resources outside of your company. Don’t utilize friends and family who won’t tell you the truth in order to spare your feelings or who may not even understand your business’ needs. Visit places like Google, your library, and incubators for networking opportunities.
If you expect to increase profit, focus more attention on the process of decision-making. How good is the information you’re using, what are the consequences of possible mistakes, and how much risk can you afford? With the exception of issues like safety, I think we can all afford more risk. We’re generally overly concerned with the consequences of mistakes and we lose sight of the potential gains.
If you want to succeed, believe in yourself. Because if you don’t, why should anyone else? You need to turn expectations into probable results.
I have learned that traditional and detailed startup recommendations (like planning and budgeting) are not as important as we previously thought. Instead, a continuous process of analyzing, measuring, and adapting to ever-changing parameters, programs, markets, and risks has a much higher probability of success. Finally, expect greatness from yourself. Learn to turn expectations into probable results. Success requires positive thinking and high expectations. If you truly believe in something, you’ll work tirelessly to make sure it’s successful. So, why can’t that something be you?
Please visit our website www.startupconection.net to book a Free Session in which we can help you develop an action plan that will evaluate potential and risk. We always discuss process, expected outcomes, and cost before you make any commitment.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His expert team will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
Do you ever feel like you’re spreading yourself too thin across too many endeavors? It’s a common occurrence among ambitious people trying to achieve excellence. There’s this notion that we can either be adequate at several things or excellent at one (maybe two). There is substance to this idea: Think of Olympic athletes—they train all day, every day striving to be the very best at what they do. Undoubtedly, this comes with many sacrifices, but no one can argue that they are not exceptional at what they do.
We live in a society where unsolicited advice is shoved at us day in and day out. This comes in the form of advertisements, social media posts, news articles, friends/family, etc. These opinions include recommendations to change this or that, be flexible, be more analytical, more inclusive, more supportive, and so on and so on. While these all seem like noble endeavors, are we spending enough time attempting to truly do them right? Are we dedicated to putting in the work necessary to ensure our efforts make a difference?
Some examples:
Everyone says rely on science and data. However, we frequently advocate conclusions without validating the assumptions. For instance, remote education has become increasingly popular. For the most part, however, eLearning does not properly address the need for one-on-one contact especially among children with special needs.
Organizational structures, procedures, and communication are being challenged because of antiquated practices. However, new approaches may not be adequately researched, tested, or measured. Nearly every retailer that is in bankruptcy or consolidating (such as Penny’s or Hertz) has been advocating new strategies and regularly changing chief executives for years, but with dismal results.
We quickly fall in love with innovation especially when it comes to technology and services (think Airbnb and Uber). Yet, many of these efforts lose millions of dollars and will never actually be profitable. WeWwork and Gilt are notable current examples.
We need a shift in perspective regarding change, execution, and excellence. The following are some specific instances where organizations simply need to better understand their new environment and work to more effectively execute fundamental change:
Demographics are a critical factor for most businesses. The world is simply getting older and more ethnically diverse. A critical issue that affects excellence is: Do you understand your target audience? This includes all of the nuanced social characteristics that go along with it. For example, if your product is geared toward people under the age of 25 and you don’t have a website or online presence, you do not have a clear grasp on the buying habits of your demographic.
Organizations that don’t understand and use the digital transformation need to change, rather than just execute. Opportunities like the cloud, Google, internet, CRM systems, digital phones, apps, etc. are simply changing the processes, costs, and marketing of businesses. Amazon and other online retailers will continue to revolutionize—requiring traditional brick and mortar stores to react and adapt. Similarly, companies like Uber and Airbnb are significantly transforming their industries and will continue to do so.
In the current state of the world, businesses are and will continue to be subjected to radical and continuous change. In order to survive such a turbulent climate, they need to build mechanisms into their processes that can adapt quickly. As we prepare to face ongoing uncertainty and instability, we must focus on changing and simplifying processes in order to reduce risk. Therefore, strategies such as pivoting and “develop/test/measure/adapt” need to be built into our organizations.
Despite the fact that we consistently praise excellence, we frequently ignore opportunities to pursue it and actually do things better. Some simple ways to improve performance and incorporate excellence into your business practices include:
Review how and why you do things the way you do them. Eliminate ineffective practices from our organizations. Some practices may be outdated or just flat out not working.
Focus on customer service. Many companies are devoting new efforts to improve this department. However, these efforts are limited without a culture to reinforce them. Consider this: Do companies really care about their customers and get excited when a customer has a great experience? Many companies treat their customers and employees like expendable pieces of the machine. A critical element of culture is trusting employees and staff. This requires hiring and training good people, giving them the authority they need to do their jobs well, and understanding that they will make mistakes at times—mistakes that need constructive correction and not just reprimand.
Consider pricing adjustments. Pricing is not a dirty word and there are numerous tools to improve results without deteriorating your brand. Packaging efforts like bundling and unbundling, quantities, timing, quality, the Internet, and service are all elements that should be part of pricing strategies. For example, Costco and Four Seasons Hotels follow quite different, but successful value strategies.
Analyze and analyze some more. All of the aforementioned efforts will be even more successful the more open and analytical your organization is. Businesses need to understand their environment, review their successes and failures, listen to new ideas, and be willing to accept the truth even when it’s not what you want to hear.
Remember that business is about people. They are your most important assets. Hire excellent people and then listen to them and reward their behavior. A simple please, thanks, and “How are you?” go a long way. Kindness and appreciation are incredibly easy and efficacious efforts.
When it comes to achieving excellence, remember to evaluate situations and determine the appropriate strategy. Assumptions, efforts, process, and results are greatly improved with analysis. Additionally, evaluating alternatives can also help build support for any processes that are executed.
At the end of the day, keep in mind that you’re only one person and you can’t do everything. And if you try, as mentioned earlier, you’ll probably only achieve mediocre results. So, in your pursuit of excellence, remember that we each have limited financial and human resources. Prioritize and learn to focus on the areas where you can have the greatest impact and the aspects of your business that customers really care about. Training always sounds good, but it frequently fails to achieve its goals. Instead, consider hiring people who can specialize in the areas where you may be lacking and delegate tasks in such a way that will encourage excellence across the board. Finally, when it comes to matters of safety, health, social values, and civil rights, we must incorporate these issues into our values and efforts so as to facilitate excellence and not impede it.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His expert team will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money. Check out his books for the business entrepreneur: Marketing Plan for Startups & Small Business and Passion & Reality for Business Success. Both are available at www.startupconnection.net.
At some point, through everything COVID, we’ve all wondered: when will things return to normal? The short answer is: never. Things won’t (and can’t) return to the way they once were. And, despite extensive planning and attempts to reopen the economy, there will be change and it will usher in a new normal.
Nowhere is this more evident than with the economy. Every day we hear success stories like Peloton and Papa John’s Pizza who are absolutely thriving. However, this drowns out the noise of businesses like Hertz, JCPenney, J. Crew, and Wework who have gone (or are in the process of going) out of business. Everyone is touting the need to preserve and support small businesses with absolutely no idea how to save them. The reality is that hundreds of thousands of small business are no longer viable and will be gone. Industries such as airlines, travel, gyms, hotels, recreation, sports, and restaurants will need completely revamped models in order to survive.
The economic issues are compounded by the integration of social circumstances. Social distancing is the elephant in the room and it’s completely disrupting many industries: 25% to 50% restaurants, hotels, airlines, and theaters cannot function (profitably) this way. Simultaneously, we are learning to like and, perhaps even enthusiastically, incorporate certain aspects of the current situation into our daily lives. Working from home, delivery and take out, and Zoom meetings are all becoming preferred activities.
An obvious game changer would be a vaccine. However, the uncertainty of when and how that might happen leaves us with no choice but to forge ahead with the information we have and the circumstances in which we currently we find ourselves. So, let’s examine some obvious changes that need to be managed to get to a new normal:
Office space, rush hour, lunchtime eating, and traffic will reduce by at least 15-30% as working from home becomes largely preferred.
Entertainment, sports, restaurants, and travel will reduce by 15-30% as patronage drops due to capacity limits / spacing requirements, cleaning protocols, and other restrictions.
2020 is and will continue to be a chaotic disaster. There is already overwhelming uncertainty regarding a vaccine, the virus itself, the economy, unemployment, education, the upcoming election, and increased social unrest in the form of protests.
Many forms of stress release have been taken away or changed due to the stay-at-home order (i.e. entertainment, exercise, visiting with friends). Unmanaged stress can lead to depression, unhealthy behaviors, and increased instances of family abuse.
Other major concerns: absorbing shutdowns, 10% unemployment rate, 100,000 virus deaths, -5% GDP decline, and a few more government stimulus programs.
As states start the process of reopening the economy and more businesses and schools startup again, we might expect a second wave of the virus followed by another (full or partial) shutdown.
Therefore, amidst all of the uncertainty and change, it’s absolutely necessary to focus on stabilizing, developing alternatives, and accepting that a new normal is inevitable.
In contrast, 2021 could offer some huge opportunities and a turnaround in regard to many of the things above. The election, fewer deaths, 4-7% unemployment, 2-5% economic growth, and a gradual relocation / increase of public activities are fairly reasonable predictions.
So, how do we move forward effectively?
Hope for a vaccine should not be discarded, but it also shouldn’t be counted on.
Don’t get distracted looking for quick solutions rather than attempting to implement new paradigms. Drive-in movies and restaurants may be nice temporary activities, but they are not long-term solutions. Meanwhile, opportunities to work-from-home and Zoom calls are providing whole new structural alternatives. The problem, however, is that we need to maximize their potential rather than just settling for their existence.
The pandemic has shed light on the fact that many of our institutions (such as schools, health care, social services, and retirement homes) are extremely broken and require structural change. We need to learn to focus on developing great programs rather than simply putting Band-Aids on problems. For example, nursing homes should be smaller and more patient-centered instead of resembling an overstocked warehouse. Many nursing homes have very diverse populations grouped together with little hope or expertise to service individual needs.
Many other businesses and industries (like post offices) are changing as well. Discussions generally focus on close, fund, or shrink, but alternatives (such as changing models, merging, adding programs etc.) should receive more attention. For example, I have an apparel client who is now making masks and safety equipment. Shifting needs requires shifting business models.
Remote efforts, technology, and innovation are the key trends to keep an eye on. Activities and services that require crowds and/or physical contact will continue to be problematic. I think much of the discussion to follow will be about the technologies regarding issues like social distance in public (i.e. elevators) and how to improve working from home. We have the opportunity to create new work environments and should start by considering the goals, strengths, and constraints. For example, it’s easy to advocate only allowing half the people in an elevator at a time, but that doesn’t get thousands of people up the elevator of a 30-story building in a timely manner.
Everyone tries to discount politics in forecasting, but it is critical during this period. I believe the Democrats will have a landslide in all areas including state and local government. This would certainly embrace climate change, infrastructure, education, health care, taxing the 1%, immigration, and social rights. Less of a landslide or loss would bring about very different changes. Either way, we must incorporate our assumptions into our actions and not ignore politics simply because it’s an uncomfortable topic.
While we’re still not sure what exactly the new normal will require, we do know many of the opportunities and challenges that will come with it. Avoid engaging in obsolete or doomed activities and, instead, embrace innovation, testing, and new paradigms. All cultural change starts with openness, includes a focus on infrastructure and measurement, and requires an awareness of biases. And, ideally, those steps lead the way to cultural change that ends in positive progress.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. This combination has been the key to client success. We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write him at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at: 914-632-6977
Every economics course – at least the good ones – will cover the idea of “ceteris paribus,” and its meaning: “all things being equal.” While it’s central to every economics program, the term is taught early in the class, and then forgotten as the semester goes on, and unfortunately when the student becomes a business owner.
But it is essential that is remembered in business, and especially in decision-making. In everyday language, ceteris paribus translates into “every business plan or analysis assumes certain assumptions that must be valid for the analysis to be useful.” (more…)
The hottest marketing idea in the news was the recent Amazon PRIME sale, where, for a day, prices were dramatically lowered for new and existing PRIME members. Advertised as “Better than Black Friday,” this was simply an online version of the “one-day” sale that your local department store would hold now and then; it’s been around for years. However, it’s hot, because it is perceived as being “new,” but also for showing a 200-300% increase in sales and generating a lot of new traffic for internet retailers.
In contrast to that, I have had small business and startup clients ignore the notion of a “discounted price” and “competitiveness” as critical factors in operating their business. For example: (more…)
When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster.
Call (914) 632-6977 or email me at bshlensky@startupconnection.net. Don’t leave without signing up for our useful free eBook!
Feeling stumped or overwhelmed? Contact Bert at (914) 632-6977 or Email to start the process. Thanks!
Every economics course – at least the good ones – will cover the idea of “ceteris paribus,” and its meaning: “all things being equal.” While it’s central to every economics program, the term is taught early in the class, and then forgotten as the semester goes on, and unfortunately when the student becomes a business owner.