Bureaucracy Doesn’t Work.

Let’s face it: Bureaucracy has lost much of its effectiveness. The entire system needs a dramatic overhaul. Many aspects of bureaucracy actually cause reduced organizational effectiveness. Hierarchy, which implies power based on position, limits the impact of new research and expertise in decision-making. Even Max Weber, one of the original advocates of bureaucracy, understood that it could be threatened when focusing on “the rules” overshadows the actual goals. This happens constantly, which means the system is broken. When things aren’t getting accomplished because we’re stuck following ineffective procedures, it’s time to change the process. We’ve all experienced this. How many times have you found yourself unable to complete (what should be) a simple task because of a flawed system? Ever find yourself passed around from person to person and no one seems to have an answer for you?

We find this model works better for us!

Bureaucracy also lacks the vision and flexibility to deal with innovation and the increased pace of change in our environments. In short, bureaucracy, rather than performance, becomes the goal. My worst nightmare regarding bureaucracy is the phrase, “We’ve always done it that way.” It’s a refusal to consider alternatives and, thus, a recipe for failure.

Even more perplexing is the fact that we continue to ignore some proven models of success. Open systems and collaboration, in my opinion, are like winning the trifecta at the horse track. They have been around for a long time, but are just now becoming the norm for success. They reject bureaucracy, authority, hierarchy, and closed decision-making processes. They encourage participation, diversity, new rules, and to some extent, chaos.

It should come as no surprise that open systems are superior and continuing to do things “the way we’ve always done it” is a dead-end. But, society as well as businesses fail to recognize that old paradigms and structures are failing:

  • Large corporate structures (print publications, big banks, and brick and mortar retailers) are all gradual losers, or even worse. Even Jamie Dimon of Chase recognizes that banks have allowed Fin-Tech startups to threaten their future growth.
  • Companies and society continue to do what they have done in the past, often with poor results. Despite massive economic and political efforts, issues like income inequality, healthcare, and infrastructure investment will continue to hold our economy back.

How do you move away from bureaucracy and toward open communication?

Innovation and Discipline

Innovation and discipline can coexist. It requires improving autonomy at all levels as you simultaneously increase discipline. For example, Google, among other big corporations, are developing artificial intelligence (AI) programs to write and develop artistic works like music and art. They argue that this technology will greatly enhance an artist’s ability to create. Others disagree, saying that it will just replace artists.

My own experience in the knitting industry showed me that automation greatly enhances an artist’s potential and reduces mundane tasks. (At one time, mechanics had to spend hours making chain links to design a new sweater.) I believe that similar improvements are evident in areas like digital photography and inventory management.

Focus and Diversification

Some businesses try to randomly pursue diverse options by simply throwing s**t at the wall and seeing what sticks. Others complete so much research and planning that, in the process, aspects like goals, probabilities, and outcomes are overshadowed or forgotten. Business owners need to identify priorities and focus. From there, test and adopt or change as opportunities or issues arise. It’s important to remember that many plans are based on wrong assumptions or are poorly executed and, therefore, do not succeed or are unable to adjust to change.

For example, I was working with a client who was trying to execute over 15 different educational programs and was stressed out, over budget, and not managing effectively. We simply cut out the least effective programs, which saved money and, as a result, were able to allot additional attention and resources to the more effective ones. Focusing your strategy can be accomplished with a few simple efforts:          

  • Measure, Estimate, Prioritize, and Adapt.
  • Follow the 80-20 rule.
  • Make mistakes and learn from them.
  • Be open to change and feedback.

Experience and Expertise

In his book “Outliers,” Malcolm Gladwell became famous for stating that, “10,000 hours of practice are required to become a world-class expert.” I am not sure it is 10,000 hours, but my experience indicates that experience and expertise are probably the most important factors in achieving success. That doesn’t mean you need expertise in everything, but it does mean you need at least a hook in the field you are pursuing. And if you know you are lacking expertise in a critical area, I suggest hiring someone to help.

For example, right-brain creatives typically don’t like financial analysis so it’s usually a good idea for them to hire an accountant. In the last couple of weeks, I have had clients with seemingly great ideas and passion who overestimated their gross margins by 10-20%. They simply didn’t do the detailed financial work and didn’t understand that those numbers could make a huge difference between profit and loss.

This argument is not intended to ignore the importance of passion, commitment, innovation, testing, and even mistake making. I’m just saying that both individuals and organizations need to realistically assess the risk of failure and the reward of success. Expertise and experience are critical for accurately evaluating opportunities and new innovations.

Risk and Evaluation

Are all of the aspects of a decision understood? Do you know the probability of reward, the amount of the reward, and the value of the reward? For example, what are the goals of your efforts? My clients are usually small businesses who need to make a profit and earn a living. Thus, they frequently pursue less risk. 

In contrast, venture capital firms are frequently pursuing growth and worry whether the enterprise will be large enough to generate large returns. Therefore, they expect a certain amount of loss as well as some lost investments in order to generate large growth and profits in other areas. Where does your business stand? And how much can you afford to risk?

Analytics and Intuition

The increased use of analytics over intuition has been significant in improving the understanding and results of decision-making. While there are no quick and simple resolutions, there are a few simple rules to improve the decision process using both analytics and intuition. 

‘Outcomes…normally we just measure the height of the files.’

Analytics is simply the increased use of research, models, probability, risk, numbers, and analysis to improve decision-making. In some cases, it has proved to be a valuable tool to understand and improve decisions or simply validate prior intuition—particularly where there is plenty of stability and historical data. For example, I have helped several of my clients improve their businesses by focusing on the 20 percent of customers or products, which we know, statistically, accounts for 80 percent of their sales.

Forget Fear.

Few sports teams, sales calls, or competitions achieve more than a 50 percent success rate. Rather than dwell on and sulk over losses, analyze your mistakes and research how to improve. Additionally, cultivate a business culture that values feedback, encourages communication, and supports collaboration. Open and honest communication on all levels is the only way to move past mistakes in a productive manner.

Empower Employees.

Giving your staff and management teams the freedom to make decisions and take (reasonable) risks can result in improved productivity. When you hire and train talented and trustworthy people, you can rest assured that they will do their jobs to the best of their ability and, ideally, add value to your business. When employees feel trusted and are given the autonomy to take chances, they’re more likely to think outside the box and offer alternative solutions. This authority in decision-making also means that employees will make mistakes at times and it’s important to remember, once again, that without failure, there is no success.

Look Beyond Your Circle.

It’s imperative to have external resources for obtaining information and receiving feedback. You need people who will tell you the truth without sugarcoating it. Make sure you have a reliable network that understands your business needs.

In general, I recommend more consideration of the process of decision-making. How good is our information, what are the consequences of mistakes and how much risk can we afford? I believe with the exception of issues like safety we can afford more risk and openness. We generally are overly concerned with the consequences of mistakes rather than the potential of risk.

And finally, let go of bureaucracy. Yes, it can be scary to transition to something new, but familiarity doesn’t equal success. In fact, sticking with something just because it’s comfortable usually isn’t beneficial. And, shockingly enough, sticking with something that doesn’t work (i.e. bureaucracy) also doesn’t work. It’s broken and it’s not worth fixing. It’s time to replace it.

Dr. Bert Shlensky is the president of www.startupconnection.net. He and his team of experts focus on helping businesses develop integrated customer-focused marketing programs that are key to business startup success. Dr. Shlensky’s most recent book is entitled, “Passion and Reality and Small Business Success.”  You can reach Dr. Shlensky at: 914-632-6977 or email him at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net

Get More Reward from Risk

Get More Reward from Risk

Risk is a critical part of every decision. And, frankly, I think we all need more of it. We tend to think of risk as a taboo concept and it’s really not—once you understand it.

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In order to benefit from risk, you need to define what risk is to you. Some people view risk as the “potential for harm or hazard” (think bungee jumping). I view risk as an “uncertain circumstance in which one manages to maximize the gains.” But, how do you maximize the probability of success?

Here are some key parameters that affect risk-based decisions:

  • Consider conditions. For example, you have almost certain probability that, in general, October will be cooler than September. However, forecasting a certain day adds risk and uncertainty.
  • Reduce risk where you can to allow even more risk in other areas. For example, more analytics in sports is creating opportunities to assess strengths/weaknesses and create new winning strategies. It has enabled athletes to take more three-point shots, hit more home runs and longer golf drives, and score more touchdowns. Similarly, surfers used to ride 29-30 waves and now they are comfortable in 50 to 80-foot waves. Jet Ski rescues, inflatable vests, and leashes are among the tools that reduce uncertainty and increase potential.
  • Know the value and probability of the reward. Winning the lottery has an extremely high reward, but also has low probability. Purchasing investment bonds has lower return than buying stocks, but the risk and volatility of buying stocks is higher.

Value is also affected by the law of diminishing returns, which states that: as the input or value increases, the incremental changes become less important. It is easily summarized by the old saying, “Too many cooks spoil the broth.” Other examples include adding superfluous benefits to an offer, endless presentations, annoying excessive service, or just making the reward dramatically above what is needed or desired. Let’s say you love pie, but only have it once in a while as a treat. In this instance, the value is higher. But, if you eat it every day, it becomes less special and the value decreases. The same goes for a visit with your in-laws: Once a month is good, one a week might be less good, and every day might really be pushing it…  

  • Understand the perceived importance of the reward. People generally regret losses more than they appreciate gains—and that is a key factor to consider when making any decision. When choosing a college to attend, decisions depend on area of course study, school size, location, tuition, the school’s reputation, etc. Are some of these factors more important than others? It varies depending on the individual.

The benefits from risk are a result of integrating the above examples to maximize results. Let’s look at the game of craps as an example: When you roll two dice, there is over a 40% probability you will roll a 6, 7, or 8 and about a 6% probability you will roll a 2 or a 12. So, if you’re placing a bet, knowing the odds (i.e. the probability of the reward) will reduce the risk. Betting is based on your willingness to risk in order to earn higher or lower rewards. The most forgotten aspect of craps (and all betting, for that matter) is that, over the long run, the house wins which is why casinos are so profitable. 

Risk needs to managed rather than feared. Understanding the risk, the rewards, and the importance of each can help you improve outcomes. Don’t allow fear, uncertainty, or tradition to lower your potential and prevent you from trying something new. Only those who dare to risk going too far can find out how far one can go.

Key factors to consider to increase the benefits from risk:

  • Understand all the information. Knowing background, probabilities, and parameters can greatly enhance outcomes. For instance, investment decisions are greatly influenced by history and trends. However, because there is so much change due to the pandemic, the risk is now more volatile and opportunistic. Knowing the circumstances around your decisions is key.
  • Psychology. Assessing risk has a number of psychological constraints: a) People tend to take more risks to win back losses and less risks to follow up on winnings. b) Marketers love to push fear. When you are buying a car, appliance etc., they push its safety, reliability, and excellence. After you commit, they try selling a warranty. They induce fear by citing all the things that can go wrong. c) We overestimate our skills and luck. Tons of profits are made at casinos and in sports betting based on countless people believing that they can beat the odds.
  • Think about your decisions and the outcomes. We often perceive decisions as win-lose situations where one-party wins and another loses, but there are different types of decisions. Changing that mentality to “win-win” can have dramatic benefits and we tend to underestimate the opportunities we have to achieve this. For example, who would have believed decades ago that the mergers of Vietnam and Germany would be so successful? So, when making a choice, brainstorm ways to maximize benefits all around.
  • Rethink your strategy: Zero sum game versus non zero-sum game. Which are you employing? The best negotiations result in both parties winning. This takes collaboration, assessing varying (or even opposing) goals, and increasing the metaphorical “pie.” In particular, try to understand what is important and unimportant for each party involved. For example, many traditional retailers viewed online shopping as a liability in terms of disrupting their regular business. Now, they’re viewing it as a savior, recognizing it’s a safe and effective way to meet the needs of their consumers.
  • Risk mitigation. The best, simplest, inexpensive, and most effective way to mitigate risk is to gather more information. The more you know about making a decision, the less risk it will involve. Other tools include: insurance, diversification, and leverage. One of the challenges of mitigation is that people often use it to take even more risk and that defeats the purpose.
  • Listen to your gut. Sometimes you just have to ignore some of the information and go for it. We tend to overthink things or we let fear stop us from taking risks, but there is no gain without trying and no reward without risk. If your intuition is telling you something, it’s usually worth listening.

Risk needs to managed rather than feared. Understanding the risk, the rewards, and the importance of each can help you improve outcomes. Don’t allow fear, uncertainty, or tradition to lower your potential and prevent you from trying something new. Only those who dare to risk going too far can find out how far one can go.

 

Startup Connection

When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster. Call (914) 632-6977 or email me at bshlensky@startupconnection.net. Don’t leave without signing up for our useful free eBook!
Feeling stumped or overwhelmed?
Contact Bert at (914) 632-6977 or Email to start the process. Thanks!

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Bert Shlensky, Ph.D

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Analytics : Pay Attention Then Disregard Everything

Seems a bit like an oxymoron, no? Well, that’s exactly what analytics have become these days: an oxymoron. A real conundrum. On one hand, data helps us predict change and plan for the future. On the other, that data can be wrong or misleading and, therefore, really screw things up. So, I say, take it all in, but then let (most of) it go.

There’s an ongoing debate regarding the roles of data and entrepreneurship. In particular, the increased availability of analytics data and tools is making planning, scheduling, and analysis much simpler and more accurate. Amazon is one of the best examples of using analytics to improve logistics (i.e. more one-day shipping).  

In contrast, the argument stands that these tools are less effective than originally expected. The most significant instances are incorrect data, method, and change. If the data is wrong, access to more data does not improve analysis. Mistakes like Boeing, Afghanistan, WE WORK, G.E. and retail stores represent diverse examples where people simply focused on wrong information. The existence and use of the phrase “alternative facts” supports the unnerving idea that it’s easier to make up lies than it is to refute those lies. That alone does not bode well for analytics and data.

Data can also be misleading when a dramatic change occurs. Disrupters like E-Commerce, ride share apps, and food delivery dramatically affected markets and parameters. Consequently, significant shifts in culture, politics, and buying habits also make economic forecasting much less reliable.

Additionally, analysis is dependent on using the right tools and methods. Many assumptions and approaches may not be appropriate. For example, investment advisors frequently tout their individual excellence while changes in the overall market are usually the largest factor in investment success. Mathematics shows that the more history one has on a topic, the more accurate the analysis. However, if parameters change, history may become irrelevant.

This is why we take it all in. Think on it. Absorb it. Let it all sit for a bit. And then throw most of it out the window.

You should absolutely consider what they teach on the first day of a statistics course (Validity, Reliability, and Accuracy) rather than ignore it.

A recap in case you need a refresher:

Validity is simply focusing on whether your methods are valid. While sampling, correlation, and other tools can improve performance, the analysis must be valid. For example, many of us predict that our team will win. However, the odds in most professional leagues are that about 3% of approximately 30 teams will actually win.

Reliability is the repeatability of results. Differing results in political polls or verifying results of medical tests are examples of reliability issues. 

Accuracy is just the correctness of the measurement process. The most violated rule of accuracy is that you are only as accurate as your least accurate number. There is a famous story about a museum guard answering a child’s question about how old a dinosaur was. He said 280 million years plus 39 years and 20 days. When asked where the number came from, he said, ”When I started, they told me it was about 280 million years old. I have been here 39 years and 20 days.” While this number certainly seems precise, it probably isn’t very accurate.

I would add a fourth factor to this list, which is probably the most important: Bias. On one hand, bias is a complex mathematical term correlated with sampling, randomness, analysis, and other things. On the other, it is how our culture, background, gender, age, and preconceptions etc. affect our attitudes and decisions. For example, many studies have shown that we form an opinion about a presentation within 90 seconds of it starting. I highly recommend that, in dealing with bias, you manage its existence rather than trying to deny it. 

Finally, tools as well as methods of reporting are dramatically changing. A colleague of mine recently challenged my website saying it was “too dependent on PowerPoint and Excel.” While these are both great tools and are the most dominant analytical and presentational methodologies, they can have many limitations: The information can be old, longitudinal analytics is frequently lacking, they are not interactive, they are not visual enough, and they can be very boring and/or misleading. Nothing is worse than being forced to sit through a PowerPoint presentation that is too long and loaded with endless Excel sheets.

In summary, analytical tools offer great potential for success, but they need to be utilized properly and in conjunction with intuition to be effective. So, gather all that data and pay close attention to it, but don’t be afraid to toss it all out.

Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. This combination has been the key to client success.  His book, “Passion and Reality for Small Business Success,” is available at www.startupconnection.net. We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write him at bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at 914-632-6977.

Why Wayne Gretzky and Hockey Say a Lot About Running a Small Business

Business risk happens to be a wolf in sheep’s clothing. However, if you give all the sheep hockey sticks and a puck like Wayne Gretzky, that wolf will likely hide behind the goal’s net. No one likes getting hit by the puck several dozen times! But we get it, though: we’re afraid of ticking off that wolf, and lo and behold: the wolf might come out from behind that net and start really nasty grunge fights with each sheep, and instead of a hockey game, we have a slaughter on our hands.

Honestly, Business Risk Is a Lot Like That: an Angry WolfWayne Gretzky wolf

But here we have the key to taming that wolf — we mentioned Wayne Gretzky.

It turned out he had quite the quote that makes perfect sense in hockey —

“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”

When you think about it, that makes perfect sense! And there’s no way around it. Truthfully, if you’re running a business, you have to accept the fact that you’re always going to be facing risk. And if you run away from it, the risk is even greater.

The key to managing risk is to take those chances — and learn from the historical data. Part of the problem is that we think risk is a lot bigger than it actually is. That wolf does look a lot bigger on the ice rink — until you start chucking pucks at him.

Sadly we’re creatures of habit, and before the innovation of technology — the Internet, mobile, Google, Amazon — we didn’t have a lot of “pucks” to chuck at the wolf like Wayne Gretzky would. So we were stuck on the old methods and didn’t want to try something new. And it’s understandable! — after all, we can’t predict much results with new programs or methods, because there’s nothing as far as historical data for us to analyze.

Thankfully, I Have the Goods Here About How to “Take All the Shots” Like Wayne Gretzky and Manage Risk Without Failure:

Here are some tools to keep in mind as you manage risk head-on while moving forward in your small business:

  • Measure, Estimate, Prioritize, and Adapt — Testing and experimenting are the keys to taming that wolf. In fact, we once had a client simply focus on key inventory items, eliminating unproductive factors by just looking at the clicks and monitoring the Google Analytics data. It’s simple. That’s one slap shot you can take like Wayne Gretzky.
  • Follow the 80/20 and 90/30 Rules — Develop your business methodology down to these numbers, and it’ll be a lot easier to forecast results. The 80/20 rule is how you’ll expect 80% of your sales coming from 20% of the offerings you make. So do the math. Likewise, 90% of all perceptions of your product will be realized in your customers’ heads within 30 seconds. So, in other words — make enough shots at the goalie in a short period of time, and you’ll definitely expect a lot of scores.
  • Lastly…. You Will Make Some Mistakes, and That’s OKAY — Why? Because that gives you the opportunity to adapt. After all, the longer you keep making those shots, the more hits you’ll make over time.

In other words: the more business risk you take, the less risk there will be.

It’s Not Easy, and You Need to Exercise Caution, Obviously

Simply be strategic. Don’t go all out. But balance your efforts. After all, Wayne Gretzky didn’t win on sheer will and tenacity alone; he had the skill.

Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of The Startup Connection, directs all small business clients toward maximum sales and profit thanks to his 40 years of high-quality experience. He does this through technological, social, and online integration, supercharging your business success into the next level, so don’t hesitate to sign up for a free consultation RIGHT NOW.

Business Culture: Don’t Underestimate Its Importance

always-done-it-this-way

Business culture:  know about it, and just as important, don’t underestimate its importance

I read an interesting article in Harvard Business Review (Pisano; June 2015) about the need for better strategies in executing innovation in organizations. While the article has some great recommendations, it ignores one critical element of innovation: the importance of a business culture that nurtures the creative environment.

Here’s one way I could explain “business culture.”  And, forgive me; I do like to use the “shipping” metaphor.  So, let’s pretend that Ship A and Ship B have been given the assignment to go find a new route to some new place that will bring in lots of money.  Ship A is run by a captain that seeks perfection, that likes to follow the path that other ships have taken before, and will not think about the point when his crew has reached the “fork in the sea,” and has to tell the guy who steers the ship which way to turn. Throughout this voyage, he has taken the safe route, has not considered the idea that taking a new route entirely may be the best way to go.  He may either doubt his ability to lead in some way, or does not have the ability to think outside the box.  I’m not feeling too good about Ship A’s chances. (more…)