The word “uncertain” doesn’t usually give us much hope. It implies instability, insecurity, and vulnerability—all things most of us try to avoid. But, perhaps, we can find a way to embrace uncertainty and find a way to make it work in our favor.
As we forge ahead into 2021, there will certainly be a significant amount uncertainty. Generally, we try to predict future trends based on recent past events. However, 2020 had such immense disruption that it is almost useless to use it as a base. Many argue that this uncertainty causes pessimism and lowers expectations. However, I argue we need to embrace uncertainty, as it creates opportunities and should incite positive expectations.
Why? Well, let’s take a look at the following paragraph describing American economic trends: “Despite this prosperity, major shifts were occurring in American business and the workforce. Preexisting corporations were merging and becoming larger, more powerful conglomerates. Consumers increasingly were doing their shopping at discount chain stores and their dining at inexpensive fast-food restaurants, leading to a decrease in the number of single-proprietor businesses. Meanwhile, manufacturers were relocating from the Northeast and Midwest to nonunion Southern states, taking jobs with them and robbing industrial cities of their vitality. Manufacturers also were opening factories in foreign countries to take further advantage of cheap labor. These shifts led to a decline in the power of unions.” (The 1960s Business and the Economy: Overview | Encyclopedia.com)
While this could describe much of today’s economy, it’s actually a description of the 1960s. It shows progress after disruption and it’s arguable that the 1960s had even more disruption than we have currently (consider the assassinations, civil rights, wars, and general social change). After major turmoil, we still achieved more growth, technological improvements, and social change than we’ve seen today. I believe that the stress we’re currently experiencing as a country could produce the same excitement that we saw in the 60s. On the other hand, it may be difficult to replicate Kennedy, the Beatles, a moon launch, the computer explosion, Martin Luther King Jr., and some of the other revolutionary changes that took place during that decade. But, history repeats itself…
And, historically, change usually occurs after disruption (and we have most definitely experienced a lot of that). In my own experience with corporate turnarounds, it’s much easier to motivate, innovate, and develop collaboration in troubled or changing organizations than within those whose culture is based on the closed-minded rule of “we’ve always done it this way.” It’s amazing how many individuals and organizations have incorporated new efforts like E-commerce, work-from-home, Zoom, etc. in order to adapt to the times and, as a result, have actually improved their results.
While we tend to focus on the negatives, there are many circumstances that should create a more positive environment if we learn to embrace uncertainty. The most significant may be the coronavirus. I suggest we focus our planning on the potential of the vaccine by spring or summer more than the tragic experiences of today. In other words, rather than just worrying about the possibility of shutting down in the near future, we should be adopting a mindset of: How do we keep a business viable today in order to thrive in the fall? How do we learn to embrace uncertainty?
I recommend focusing on these three areas that create significant opportunities for positive thinking: technology, expectations, and analytics.
While we seem to constantly advocate for technology, I think we underestimate it. For example, financial advisors continue to advocate balanced portfolios with traditional companies and bonds, but here’s the reality:
In 2016, if you had invested $10,000 in each of P&G, G.E., G.M, and Exxon (all among the leading companies of the day), it would be worth $35,000 or a loss of about $5000. If you had invested the same amount in Amazon, Google, Facebook and Microsoft, it would be worth $169,000 or a gain of about $139,000. If you had invested the $40,000 in 3% bonds, it would be worth about $46,000 or a gain of about $6,000. Yet, advisors tout Exxon as a great opportunity for 2021 despite the growth in electric cars, energy saving efforts, and reduced energy consumption.
Pay attention to areas like E-commerce, A.I., infrastructure, medical research, etc. These will produce dramatic opportunities for growth and investment.
Positive Expectations are a critical cause of growth and success. Venture capital, increased risk, and positive thinking can produce dramatic results. Low interest rates and inflation have had a huge impact on reducing actual risk. My favorite musical has always been My Fair Lady because of the Pygmalion effect, which infers that having positive expectations leads to enhanced performance, which results in a higher probability of success. The implication is that confidence and energy will increase if we believe in ourselves. On the other hand, a negative self-perception results in a significantly lower chance of succeeding. What we think we’re capable of, therefore, basically becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Technology and expectations can be enhanced with improved measurement and analysis. Some simple ways to implement analytics: review goals, probability, risk, and measurement. Basically, ask yourself how you’re doing and where you can improve.
More advanced analysis, testing, and measurement may include creating more dynamic and interactive efforts, which can boost the development of strategies. Allowing for failure and considering alternatives can also be useful. Incorporating operations, customer service, branding, and pricing in decision making can create new, successful approaches. Accept this fact now: Mistakes will occur. So what? Learn from them and move on. Mistakes are only bad if you keep making the same ones.
So, you see, positive expectations can have a dramatic impact on success. Yes, there is uncertainty ahead, but when has there ever been zero uncertainty? A feeling of security at any given moment doesn’t actually equate to certainty. We can’t predict the future and we don’t know what tomorrow holds. There will always be uncertainty, so embrace uncertainty and trust that the “unknown” is where possibility lives. Facing unexpected change is the fastest way to determine if you’re a pessimist or an optimist. What will you be? A defeatist or an opportunist? Why not try expecting greatness? Expect it from yourself, from others, and from the universe. Because when you expect it, it’s easier to find.
Please visit our website www.startupconection.net to book a Free Session in which we can help you develop an action plan that will evaluate potential and risk. We always discuss process, expected outcomes, and cost before you make any commitment.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His expert team will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
“The 1960s Business And The Economy: Overview.” Encyclopedia.com, www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/culture-magazines/1960s-business-and-economy-overview.
Functioning during a pandemic is the ultimate conundrum. While constant uncertainty, risk, and complexity complicates (and slows) every decision, the pressing need for immediate change, adaptation, and redirection never lets up. It’s a relentless balancing act between immediate survival and long-term success and the only sure thing is inconsistency. Amidst so many necessary adjustments, it’s difficult to know the best way to advance effectively as we are maneuvering through a pandemic. But, alas, advance we must.
Are baby steps the answer or is big change the way to go?
As we find ourselves maneuvering through a pandemic, on one hand, some baby steps are critical because problems continue to develop every moment that require urgent and immediate changes. While we are rushing to develop solutions, the nature and complexity of immediate goals has dramatically shifted. Safety must be at the forefront of every program and decision. Short-term financial constraints have become paramount while uncertainty is limiting most forecasting through 2021 at least.
Crises Response:
With forecasting unavailable in a rapidly changing business environment, instant flexibility and response are crucial. For example, work-from-home, online shopping, and crowd avoidance will continue to evolve over the next few months.
People management is requiring more quick decisions and administration. When, who, and how do you bring back staff? How do you make decisions and adapt the organization while considering factors like work-from-home, more volatility, and more uncertainty? Should you consider hiring creative types or especially skilled people who can offer new solutions?
Pricing strategies during a pandemic are critical both in controlling costs and generating volume. In particular, you need to recognize new costs and new customer preferences; which will require analysis and measurement using multiple small trials. Consider alternative pricing tactics as well as the entire pricing package. Online sales, measurement, and flexibility will make these rapid changes executable.
The latest trends in dealing with the crises also bias our decisions. For example, many businesses are executing 25% operating formats that most experts think will fail. Every business owner needs to continue to test a lot of alternatives that integrate expectations, uncertainty, psychology, culture, risk, quality control, consumer confidence, and values.
Planning ahead:
Short-term small efforts must be integrated and designed with long-term strategies and operational efforts in mind. Start with a quick assessment of who you are and where you are going with your business. Don’t worry about the details. Just take a half hour or so and write down key goals, challenges, and opportunities. Make it short so you can focus on priorities rather than overwhelming yourself with too much. You can (and should) come back and revise this list frequently.
Assess your potential profitability and financial needs. There are simple profit models that can help you easily determine your viability, key issues, and alternatives. In particular, the analysis should focus on the impact of various factors on your profitability and potential. One of the surprising aspects of this analysis is that growth and prioritization are frequently more important than cost cutting in business success.
Focus on what you do well and eliminate efforts that will fail.
Keep strategies and programs integrated. Issues like rent, supplier relations, marketing, operations distribution, etc. are critical and must remain flexible on a daily basis. And while finances may be tight, marketing could be the best opportunity for success. Additionally, collaboration with suppliers and landlords will be essential for success. Many tenants and landlords seem to avoiding each other, but I suggest negotiating new rent requirements and marketing efforts in order to survive and generate more business. There are also a number of marketing efforts that can be tested and purchased on a reduced or trial fee.
A lot of great discussions are taking place regarding working-from-home, office spacing, and communication. However, most of the talk revolves around physical settings to accommodate spacing and other requirements. We need to also examine the impact on structure, communication, social interacting, and decision-making.
The new normal must include tools that encourage informal communication in order to help develop relationships, build trust, encourage new ideas, and create safe feedback. Examples: some in-office meetings and social events, including part-time or other department staff, promote health and wellness, and develop community efforts to replace interactions that no longer exist such as “water cooler chats.”
“I just thought we should talk more.”
In general, I support developing confidence and taking more risk. In many cases, we overestimate the costs of failures and underestimate the value of success. Midst pandemic, constant uncertainty makes risk more prevalent in all decision-making. Make sure you understand the value, alternatives, and the probability. Similarly, analytics frequently ignores the potential of innovation and out-of-the-box-solutions. Adapt and be flexible. Most efforts won’t succeed on the first try, but practice integrating the positive components from each trial with some different approaches.
Traditional organizations will most likely fail in the wake of the “new normal” because they are inflexible, hierarchical, and change too slowly. Walter Isaacson’s book, The Innovators, illustrates how commitment, diversity, collaboration, and friction among diverse participants such as Jobs and Wozniak or Gates and Allen led to success. The structural key to change is the need to be open to measurement and feedback. Looking at, understanding, and sharing financials, operations reports, and sales reports are the first step. Simple research studies and social media can be additional tools.
As we find ourselves maneuvering through a pandemic, the solution seems to be found in a paradoxical combination of immediate change and big baby steps. Inarguably, the slate needs to be wiped clean and new paradigms are a necessity. This will include immediate crises and opportunity management as well as long-term strategic considerations. A focus on cooperation, open collaborative systems, and trying to keep in mind that “smaller can be better” may offer hope for organizations as they restructure. Finding a way to stay afloat and, ideally, thrive during such a transformative time requires nuanced decision-making. You’ll need to find a balance between small steps, immediate action, gradual shifts, and drastic change while determining which approach works where and deciding if it’s a short-term response or a long-term solution. Sure, it sounds complicated, but that’s the nature of business. And you already knew that.
The pandemic is rapidly teaching us that personal, organizational, and structural change is going to be tougher and faster than expected. Consequently, we must accept that dramatic solutions are necessary to manage, what is now, an entirely new landscape. We all need to be adapting to the pandemic.
There are several significant changes that have already occurred (and are not going to disappear in the near future) that are worth taking into consideration:
We are implementing financial deficits at local, state, and federal levels that, prior to this, were never considered acceptable.
Health care and service workers are receiving (long overdue) recognition and appreciation. Experts are also saying practices like home care and virtual appointments, which are eliminating marginal procedures and improving efficiency in medical care, will become a more permanent standard.
Social distancing policies are forcing behaviors such as hugging, kissing, and shaking hands to be revolutionized and avoided.
The magic word seems to be “remote.” Tele-doctors, homeschool e-learning, working remotely, food delivery and pickup are becoming the new normal, but standards, expectations, and productivity are still unstable and unsustainable. Adjustments will need to be made to accommodate shifting trends and other obstacles. For example, many pizza parlors are experiencing dramatic increases, but the volume is mostly at dinner rather than a steady all-day flow. Parents are finding it difficult to work while simultaneously caring for their children. And, teachers are struggling to manage students and cover the same amount of material in a virtual classroom.
On one hand, we need faster and more dramatic change. On the other, we need more science, testing, and technology to ensure success. Imagine how an increase in things like control groups, curves, models, and logistics could improve our effectiveness and efficiency as we are adapting to the pandemic.
There are several key areas where dramatic and structural change will be necessary to adequately adapt to a vastly changed environment:
The most dramatic (also evidenced in the 2008 financial crises) is that the big will survive much more effectively than the small. In the last few decades, the number of banks and public companies has reduced by over 30 percent. In contrast, the number of restaurants (about 600,000) has remained the same for years. It’s estimated that 10-20% of those and other small businesses will not survive this crisis. That will significantly alter the opportunities and challenges of small business.
We need to focus more on efficiency and restructuring over simple cost reduction. Amazon and other tech companies have become the main targets of criticism regarding questionable practices. However, we should also recognize their contributions in expanding things like communication, home delivery, cloud sharing, etc. For example, I have a consumer products client who has lost much of her retail business. However, she has more than offset it (via sales on Amazon and on her own website) with higher margins and lower prices.
Better management of increased risk and uncertainty is required. Companies are unwilling and unable to forecast 2021, which makes 2022 equally uncertain. Thus, capital, operations, personnel, and marketing decisions are basically on hold. However, we can look at history, industry, and probability models to provide a little more predictability. In particular, looking at alternative scenarios and their probable outcomes can be a valuable effort.
Technology will be king. Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple will survive and grow as they become even more innovative and efficient. Traditional retailers with large real estate platforms and margin requirements are at great risk. Consumers are enjoying many aspects of the work-at-home, delivery, virtual lifestyle. These conveniences will be expanded and must be integrated into our systems.
We need to face tough decisions in maximizing our success. While the specifics may be uncertain, most organizations require more technical and analytic skills. Can you provide challenges and opportunities for your best people rather than drowning them in bureaucracy? Can you retrain or replace staff who are less effective? How can you create a supportive culture that values risk-taking, innovation, diversity, and embraces the importance of learning from mistakes?
Learn to prioritize. What is working, what is failing, and how do you devote more resources to the successes? Sometimes our fear of change limits our effort to understand that opportunities, not challenges, have the greatest impact.
The most important aspect of adapting to the pandemic that we’re currently experiencing is to recognize its significance and aggressively find solutions. It does require an openness and willingness to test new ideas. Don’t let emotion or bias affect you. Remember that passion, energy, and commitment are strong determinants of success. Take comfort in the fact that risk can be reduced greatly with testing, research, and analysis. And embrace integrated approaches that incorporate new strategies and activities. As Sheryl Sandberg said:
Dr. Bert Shlensky has an MBA and a PhD from the Sloan School of Management at MIT. He is the President of the New York-based consulting firm, The Startup Connection, where he uses his 30 years of high-level business experience to guide his clients toward maximum sales and profit. For a free consultation, please visitwww.startupconnections.net.
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![[while reading "Economic News" at a news stand]
"I'm not as interested in the strength of the economy as in whether it's on my side."](https://i0.wp.com/startupconnection.net/wp-content/uploads/Im-not-as-interested-in-the-strength-of-the-economy.jpg?resize=725%2C236&ssl=1)
