When we discuss misinformation, lying is the most common focus. However, there are numerous other types of misinformation. In particular wrong information, missing information, and unavailable information are key challenges that need to be addressed and possible resolutions provided.
We underestimate the importance of simply wrong information in our decision-making. Sources can change, measurements can be incorrect, and suddenly we’re faced with a bunch of errors that inhibit making accurate conclusions and better decisions.
Economic Forecasting, COVID-19 Impact and Embracing Humility
Many economists and forecasters were mostly wrong in forecasting a recession in 2023. While they understood inflation, they ignored the growth in employment, the economy, and consumer spending. Similarly, we are still adapting to the impact of COVID-19 on current analysis. The shifts from 2020 in almost everything from vaccine practices and death rates to how we consume entertainment to remote work must be considered as we’re considering decisions.
Changes in retail, wars, labor battles, politics, etc. are all causing disruptions in our understanding. And because we lack information and experience on issues like electric cars, A.I. and immigration, we’re in the dark and that makes it far more difficult to be able to make the best decisions.
Critical thinking isn’t just about spotting logical fallacies or identifying bias. It’s about fostering an attitude of intellectual humility, a willingness to admit we don’t know everything and to change our minds when presented with new evidence. It’s about creating a habit of asking, “Is this true? What’s the source? Are there alternate viewpoints?”.
Psychological Constraints in Risk Assessment
Certainty and risk both play a big role in misinformation. We need to understand the probability and value of decisions. We need to understand all the information that is available to us – background, probabilities, and parameters – which can greatly impact outcomes.
Figuring out risks, however, can sometimes be tricky, due to several psychological constraints:
People tend to take more risks to win back losses and less risks to follow up on winnings.
Marketers love to push our pain points and focus on our fears.
We overestimate our skills and luck, as shown in the betting industries, where huge profits are made based on countless people believing that they can beat the odds.
Navigating Bias from Statistical to Social Influences
Bias is one of the greatest complications when it comes to making accurate decisions. Professionals usually focus on statistical problems, but things like demographics, measurement, and timing matter as much, if not more. Remember, your data is only as good as your worst input.
But I think social bias – our preconceived ideas about things – is more misleading than statistical bias. Culture and the environment also factor into bias, affecting how we see things. For instance, in presentations, I’ve learned that having food available to the attendees is a hit. I’ve also learned to never be the last speaker. Past experiences and what we want to see can also cloud our judgment more than future expectations.
Misinformation in Setting Parameters, Taboo Topics and Cause-Effect Confusions
Misinformation also messes with understanding our decision parameters. We tend to see decisions as win-lose but flipping that to a “win-win” mindset can be a game-changer. We often miss out on opportunities because we underestimate the chances of everyone coming out on top.
Misinformation is prevalent in topics we tend to avoid discussing – things like religion, sex and I.Q. Santa Claus is one of the only exceptions where it seems proper to include misinformation.
Cause and effect are frequently misused in reaching decisions as well. Figuring out what really causes what, citing wrong connections, and mixing up relationships with causes – those are all common errors.
Trusting Intuition and Debunking “Bubbbe Meise”
Sometimes you must ignore some of the information and just listen to your gut. In Yiddish, there is the word “bubbbe meise” which basically translates to “old wise tales”. This would include things like chicken soup being a cold cure, or the 5 second rule where it’s safe to eat something that’s fallen on the ground if it hasn’t been there for more than 5 seconds, knocking on wood for luck, and numerous unproven folklore we follow.
My favorite is the 60-40 investment rule which has been wrong for over 10 years. We tend to overthink things or we let fear stop us from taking risks, but there is no gain without trying and no reward without risk. If your intuition is telling you something, it’s usually worth listening.
Measurement Challenges: From Gym Scales to Performance Metrics
Measurement is a clear issue in misinformation. For instance, my scale at the gym had me excited because it showed I’d lost 10 pounds over a few months. However, when I went to the doctor, that scale showed only 4 pounds lost.
So how do we improve goal setting and measurement? The first step is to think about it and consider more details and considerations. Long-term versus short-term, quantitative versus qualitative, risk and caution, objective versus subjective all need to be considered in setting goals. We also need to consider the process and complexity of measurement. For example, do you want specific, general or directional results?
Measurement has become similarly complex. How important are results, speed, motivation, innovation, and quality in measuring performance?
For example, I believe automation has improved the speed and efficiency of many customer service processes. However, customer service and satisfaction are frequently sacrificed for that automation. How many times have we been completely frustrated with ineffective electronic customer service efforts?
Promoting Social Responsibility in Fact-Checking
How do we nurture the social responsibility of fact-checking? First, let’s normalize it. Make fact-checking a routine part of how we interact with information. From the news articles we read to the social media posts we share; each piece of information should go through a fact-checking filter.
Similarly, the bandwagon effect can propel us to jump on board with popular yet baseless narratives. Understanding these psychological tendencies is key to unravelling why misinformation can sometimes be so tricky.
Let’s remember that misinformation isn’t just a problem of the information era; it’s a human problem, rooted in our cognition and emotions. By acknowledging this, we can begin to address misinformation in a more holistic way, weaving psychological insights into our strategies to counter false narratives.
Let’s strive to understand not just the ‘what’ of misinformation, but also the ‘why’. After all, knowing our adversary is half the battle won. And in this fight against misinformation, a solid understanding of the human psyche is a weapon we cannot afford to neglect.
Dr. Bert Shlensky earned a PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T., mentored a few thousand clients at Score and in his own practice, grew Sure Fit products from $50 million to $150 million in sales, including $60 million of direct internet sales, was President of WestPoint Pepperell’s Apparel Fabrics Business and headed the $400 million Culet Shirt Group. Dr. Bert knows what works and can help lead your company to greater profitability and success. For a free initial consult, reach out at bshlenksy@startupconnection.net or 914-632-6977.
At StartupConnection, we’re all about delivering blogs that are not just informative but also packed with actionable insights. We understand that information overload is real. So, we’re testing a new approach – a blog solely dedicated to parameters, giving you the space to prioritize what truly matters. We’d love to hear your thoughts on this, so feel free to drop us some feedback! In this post, we will be discussing optimizing strategies regarding making decisions and taking action.
Developing Programs with Precision
Sometimes, we’re so engrossed in creating programs that we forget about the parameters needed for optimizing strategies. Let’s simplify it. Here are some straightforward tips to consider parameters effectively:
Crafting Your Money-Making Plan
The “Pro Forma Income Statement”
This may sound a bit grand, but it’s your roadmap to cash flow.
Consider how a big marketing budget can affect your income. It may seem counter-intuitive but spending more on marketing might just boost those unit sales.
Investor-Worthy Plans
Investors crave plans but hate wild guesses. Be the entrepreneur who delivers realistic projections using templates. Specific numbers matter, even if they’re just a start. Remember that sales volume goals and pricing strategies are the building blocks of any plan.
Holistic Planning
Comprehensive Considerations
Levels of marketing, overhead, and administrative costs – they all play a role. Analytical, social, and intuitive considerations should also blend seamlessly into your plan.
Adaptability is Key
The world changes fast, and so should your strategy. Regularly review parameters like population, economy, and social values. Stay updated as the latest variables might just be the game-changer.
Navigating Cause and Effect
Decoding Relationships
Cause and effect can be spurious. Relationships involve a mix of factors. Analytics is critical, but don’t ignore intuition, risk, and low probabilities. Just like Gates, Bezos, and Jobs – master the art of thinking outside the box. It is the outliers and risktakers who create much of the innovation, excitement and change in our society.
Managing Bias and Embracing Risk
Navigating the Bias Maze
Bias, especially in small businesses, is human. Be mindful; assumptions, analysis, and data can sway your decisions. Consider different age groups without falling into bias traps.
Risk and Outcomes
Predicting results with historical data is straightforward. However, for new programs or inconsistent data, it’s about educated estimates. Embrace risk as it’s where innovation thrives.
Commit to Action
Nike’s Wisdom: JUST DO IT!
Not making a decision is a decision in itself. Recognize the importance of parameters in your decision processes.
Balancing the 80-20 Rule
Strategic Account Maximization
The 80-20 rule suggests maximizing old accounts with increased potential before reaching out to new accounts. Balance critique with support, collaboration, and teamwork.
The Expertise Quotient
Seeking and using expertise might be the missing link in your strategy. Collaboration enhances effectiveness, so let’s focus on teamwork as well as obtaining expert support.
In summary, understanding and incorporating parameters into your decision-making process is the secret sauce for success. So, let’s navigate these parameters together and remember that optimizing strategies will help to pave the way for effective and strategic decision-making.
Contact us for a FREE evaluation and get an alternative perspective on your business. We’d love to help you identify ways to adapt to current trends. No one has time for BS—so we’ll cut straight to the point and answer any questions you have. Reach us at:
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business & President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. Please visit our website: https://www.startupconnection.net/ for more information.
In a world saturated with negativity, particularly in the wake of the pandemic, it’s high time we shift our focus towards opportunities and unlocking our true potential. Let’s explore some straightforward guides that strike a balance between wisdom and relatability.
Begin with a sprinkle of wisdom. Consider these two thought-provoking quotes:
George Bernard Shaw once mused, “Some people see things as they are and say why? I dream things that never were and say, why not?”
Sheryl Sandberg, addressing the self-doubt that still holds many women back, challenges us with, “What would you do if you weren’t afraid?”
The Realities: A Charted Journey
We all crave success, but let’s not be blind to the ups and downs of the journey. Picture this – a chart revealing the common, bumpy ride to success. It’s a visual cue that appearances can be deceiving, much like those optical illusions where all the lines are r the same length.
Diverse Paths of Entrepreneurship
There are different approaches to entrepreneurship that we sometimes fail to recognize.On one side, big company are all about growth and raising capital, as seen in the fact that 83% of IPOs in the last year were in the red. On the flip side, the majority of entrepreneurs are simply hustling to make ends meet year after year.
Much of corporate innovation is focused is on uncovering superior or novel solutions to existing challenges. Picture this: car companies investing years in refining combustible engines, retailers dedicated to enhancing the shopping experience, and giants like IBM striving to build bigger and better computers.
And yet there’s a whole other league of companies carving a different path. Their mission is to develop entirely new solutions. This shift has given birth to groundbreaking innovations like the electric car, the E-Commerce revolution, and the ever-expanding realm of cloud computing – all championed by these visionary new players. It’s a dynamic landscape where established players and fresh faces alike are shaping the future.
Embracing Change: Cooperation and Collaboration
Change is the only constant, and it’s time to adapt. Cooperation, collaboration, and embracing new resources are the keys to evolving. The game-changer is recognizing that taking risks isn’t synonymous with failure. Testing alternatives to find optimal solutions and gaining experience are crucial aspects of success. Risk is a critical part of every decision. And, frankly, I think we all need more of it. We tend to think of risk as a taboo concept when it’s really not—once you understand it.
Balancing Vision and Execution
“Vision without execution is hallucination,” echoes the wisdom of Thomas Edison.
While we celebrate excellence, we often overlook opportunities to do things better. Streamlining processes, cutting unnecessary costs, and tackling bureaucracy can enhance organizations. Customer service is a function where companies can devote new efforts to improve. Pricing is not a dirty word, and there are numerous tools to improve results without deteriorating your brand. All these actions can contribute to progress and improvement if an organization embraces them.
Battling Bias: The Unseen Culprit
Bias lurks in the background, often leading to unreliable results. Here’s the thing. We love to be right and hate to be wrong. Acknowledging and challenging bias is crucial. The “It won’t happen to me” mindset can be a silent contributor to unexpected volatility. Our brain, working surreptitiously in the background, doesn’t alert us too how biased we actually are. Recognize this unseen force, and decisions become more informed.
Injecting Fun: The Secret Sauce
Don’t forget the fun element!
As Steve Jobs wisely stated, “The only way to do great work is to love what you do.”
And Walt Disney’s advice to “Do what you do so well that they will want to see it again and bring their friends” emphasizes the joy in mastering just having fun.
Tools for Excellence: Reaching Higher Potential
Armed with these insights, recognize the toolbox available to enhance excellence and unlock higher potential. Realistic goals, strategic plans, understanding risks, biases, and having the confidence to embrace your potential – it’s all part of the journey. So, strike that balance, enjoy the ride, and let’s embark on the path to unlocking our fullest potential.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. This combination has been the key to client success. We welcome comments, suggestions and questions You can write him at bshlensky@startupconnection .net or call at 914-632-6977
To effectively gauge opportunities and tackle challenges, take charge – a handy tool is reviewing your past results, current challenges, and potential opportunities down the road. While a bit of analysis and number-crunching can be beneficial, my advice is to keep things informal and swift. The key here is to concentrate on spotting opportunities and embracing change, steering clear of getting bogged down in the intricacies of the review process. Let’s shift the focus to identifying and assessing alternatives instead of merely singing your own praises.
Building on Success
The best opportunities are frequently found by building on success rather than repeating disappointments. Take health, for instance. There’s a world of opportunities to boost your well-being beyond the obvious options of exercise, a balanced diet and annual checkups. In the ever-evolving health scene, there’s a constant flow of new medications to prevent problems that we can take charge of if we stay informed.
Financial Snapshot
Now, let’s ask ourselves the big questions: How are you doing right now, and what do you want to achieve? Get a snapshot of your financial landscape, factoring in your growth, age, wealth, and goals. If retirement is here or peeking around the corner, consider your goals, wealth, income, and maybe leaving a little something for the next generation. Here’s my two cents: take a bit of risk, understand your investments, as well as your financial advisor’s recommendations.
Reality Check
After gathering your data, give your findings a reality check by going over them with someone – a professional, an expert, or a colleague. Trust is key here, so the person you consult with needs to be knowledgeable enough that you can trust their feedback.
Mapping Your Journey
Now let’s talk about career and life. What’s on the horizon for next year? Can you hit your job goals, or is it time to re-evaluate them? Do you need to tweak your work-life balance, maybe dive into some new activities or maybe let go of ones you simply don’t enjoy anymore? This is the time to take charge mapping out your personal GPS for the next leg of your journey.
Communication and Cooperation
When it comes to communication, how do we go about cooperating to create a win-win situation?It is well proven that tactics like collaboration, trust, and listening work better in decision making than dictating, lecturing, and proclaiming false expertise. There’s extensive research supporting the idea that people resist change unless they can see what’s in it for them. When given the opportunity to argue your case, try to emphasize the benefits for the other party. If you can make them, see the positives they’ll reap in the compromise, you’re much more likely to convert them.
Risk and Creativity
Let’s talk risk. Consider when it would be beneficial to break free from the predictable and try something more creative. Making decisions and taking risks are a dance between probability and information. Predicting outcomes with solid data is one thing, but it’s a different ball game when it comes to new ideas. Help take charge of your future. And remember that sharing information often maximizes benefits for everyone.
Fresh Ideas and Strategies for Growth
Below you’ll find links to some recent blogs to help take charge of improvement in all areas. Hopefully, reviewing some of the suggestions from this list inspires you to incorporate some fresh ideas and explore various strategies. We also recommend using the content to develop and test new alternatives and solutions. In your efforts, don’t be afraid of some failures along the way—it’s the best way to learn and grow.
And remember, as the year comes to a close and stress levels tend to increase, be kind to yourself and others, find ways to relax, enjoy time with family, but also make time for yourself. Take deep breaths, cut yourself some slack, and know that your best is enough. Prioritizing can dramatically improve results. Focus on what you are good at and don’t sweat the small stuff. Think about it this way – most sports analytics are based on getting players to focus on the efforts with the greatest probability of success.
In a nutshell, taking stock of your current status can add to the excitement and potential of your efforts. Aim for accomplishment and satisfaction. Prioritize tasks and set realistic goals. Remember that accepting risk and managing change allows you to maximize your efficiency and accomplish more. Don’t shy away from those out-of-the-box opportunities either. And who knows, your next move might be a game-changer in making next year your year.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His expert team will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
We all recognize the importance of change, but also need to consider volatility in affecting change.
Take the stock market, for example – it’s like a rollercoaster influenced by economic twists, social vibes, and market moods. Recently, in 2023, the S&P 500 went up 17% from January to July, then down 11% from July to October, only to bounce back up by 11% from October to November. Minimally, you should evaluate investing for short-term change or simply investing for the longer term.
Rapid Evolution in Our World
Our world is evolving fast. Technology, our tastes, and what’s considered normal are flipping markets on their heads. Leisure, travel, and entertainment are booming unexpectedly. Even the diet industry is getting a facelift thanks to new drugs helping people shed pounds. It’s a game-changer.
Social, political, and economic events are regularly disrupting our environment. From weather havoc to terrorism, it seems like endless crises.
Managing Unpredictability
How do we handle all this unpredictability? First, we’ve got to understand volatility and figure out how to manage it. When bridges suddenly collapsed in Philadelphia and Los Angeles, they were fixed in record time – thanks to clear goals, teamwork, and innovative solutions. We need the same approach for everything, from health issues as we age to dealing with climate events and political shake-ups.
Take our health, for instance. As the years pile on, it’s a good idea to play offense. Waiting for a health crisis to hit is like playing catch-up. Hitting the gym, eating a bit healthier, and throwing in regular checkups are like the MVPs in the game of avoiding health rollercoasters. Same goes for other bumpy rides, like dealing with the economy, wild weather, or political shake-ups.
Look at how we’ve been stepping up our game in handling weather drama like fires and hurricanes. It’s all about staying on top of things, being ready, and finding solutions. That’s the playbook we can follow for other curveballs that life throws our way.
Emphasizing Communication and Cooperation
Communication, coordination, and cooperation should be our priorities. Fire departments focus on safety and prevention rather than just enforcing laws. Why can’t we do the same for issues like crime, making things better between police and communities?
Rethinking Progress and Success While Being Aware of Bias and Risk
It’s time to rethink progress and success. We’ve made huge strides in areas like reducing smoking and drunk driving. Reviewing plans is important, but we need to do it together and be open to expert advice for better problem-solving.
Don’t forget about bias and risk: Bias is, perhaps, the biggest culprit in unreliable results. “It won’t happen to me” may be the greatest cause of unexpected volatility. Here’s the thing. We love to be right. We hate to be wrong. So, we will go to extraordinary lengths to make sure that we’re proven correct. And we won’t even know we’re doing it. Our brain, working surreptitiously in the background, doesn’t alert us too how biased we actually are.
Creating a Supportive Environment and Setting Specific Goals
Creating a supportive environment, both physically and socially, can help us deal with crises better. This includes a safe, productive and supportive physical space, along with social and businesses practices that are fair, consistent and understood can significantly add to the capability to deal with crises.
Getting specific with goals and solutions is key. We all get the importance of goals, but sometimes we spend too much time pointing fingers instead of finding solutions. Take a cue from success stories like fire safety and emergency highway repairs.
It’s all about staying open and analytical. Businesses need to understand their environment, learn from both wins and losses, and be open to new ideas. In other words, don’t be like Jack Nicholson saying, “You can’t handle the truth.”
Embracing Change for Better Solutions
In a nutshell, recognizing that change and ups and downs happen is the first step to tackling problems. We need tools to understand and predict change – just like we do with things like COVID and flu shots. Being prepared and understanding volatility will lead us to better solutions and alternatives.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. We guide your plans for business success and unlock your profits.Our strategy includes clear steps, and over 150 free articles and templates to facilitate your efforts and guide your process. We’re here to help you get on track and stay there as you move forward.
We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write us at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at 914-632-6977.
When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster.
Call (914) 632-6977 or email me at bshlensky@startupconnection.net. Don’t leave without signing up for our useful free eBook!
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