At StartupConnection, we’re all about delivering blogs that are not just informative but also packed with actionable insights. We understand that information overload is real. So, we’re testing a new approach – a blog solely dedicated to parameters, giving you the space to prioritize what truly matters. We’d love to hear your thoughts on this, so feel free to drop us some feedback! In this post, we will be discussing optimizing strategies regarding making decisions and taking action.
Developing Programs with Precision
Sometimes, we’re so engrossed in creating programs that we forget about the parameters needed for optimizing strategies. Let’s simplify it. Here are some straightforward tips to consider parameters effectively:
Crafting Your Money-Making Plan
The “Pro Forma Income Statement”
This may sound a bit grand, but it’s your roadmap to cash flow.
Consider how a big marketing budget can affect your income. It may seem counter-intuitive but spending more on marketing might just boost those unit sales.
Investor-Worthy Plans
Investors crave plans but hate wild guesses. Be the entrepreneur who delivers realistic projections using templates. Specific numbers matter, even if they’re just a start. Remember that sales volume goals and pricing strategies are the building blocks of any plan.
Holistic Planning
Comprehensive Considerations
Levels of marketing, overhead, and administrative costs – they all play a role. Analytical, social, and intuitive considerations should also blend seamlessly into your plan.
Adaptability is Key
The world changes fast, and so should your strategy. Regularly review parameters like population, economy, and social values. Stay updated as the latest variables might just be the game-changer.
Navigating Cause and Effect
Decoding Relationships
Cause and effect can be spurious. Relationships involve a mix of factors. Analytics is critical, but don’t ignore intuition, risk, and low probabilities. Just like Gates, Bezos, and Jobs – master the art of thinking outside the box. It is the outliers and risktakers who create much of the innovation, excitement and change in our society.
Managing Bias and Embracing Risk
Navigating the Bias Maze
Bias, especially in small businesses, is human. Be mindful; assumptions, analysis, and data can sway your decisions. Consider different age groups without falling into bias traps.
Risk and Outcomes
Predicting results with historical data is straightforward. However, for new programs or inconsistent data, it’s about educated estimates. Embrace risk as it’s where innovation thrives.
Commit to Action
Nike’s Wisdom: JUST DO IT!
Not making a decision is a decision in itself. Recognize the importance of parameters in your decision processes.
Balancing the 80-20 Rule
Strategic Account Maximization
The 80-20 rule suggests maximizing old accounts with increased potential before reaching out to new accounts. Balance critique with support, collaboration, and teamwork.
The Expertise Quotient
Seeking and using expertise might be the missing link in your strategy. Collaboration enhances effectiveness, so let’s focus on teamwork as well as obtaining expert support.
In summary, understanding and incorporating parameters into your decision-making process is the secret sauce for success. So, let’s navigate these parameters together and remember that optimizing strategies will help to pave the way for effective and strategic decision-making.
Contact us for a FREE evaluation and get an alternative perspective on your business. We’d love to help you identify ways to adapt to current trends. No one has time for BS—so we’ll cut straight to the point and answer any questions you have. Reach us at:
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business & President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. Please visit our website: https://www.startupconnection.net/ for more information.
When we consider risk, much of the discussion revolves around analytics, alternatives, probability, and bias. But, there are other important factors to consider, which are frequently excluded and, when dealt with properly, can create new opportunities. These include higher than normal results, lower than normal results, enablers, parameters for consideration, and excluding key unknowns.
Entrepreneurs generally advocate the untapped potential of their ideas without detailed analysis of parameters, requirements, and profitability. For example, Venture capital firms that take the risk of investing in several new companies only expect a few to perform with extraordinary results. Last year, they extended too far and many are in financial trouble today. However, the initial risk is appealing because, statistically, people do win the lottery, and companies like Zoom hit the jackpot and do well, especially when you consider the way they’ve evolved over the past few years.
The reverse is also occurring with unforeseen disruptions increasing risk. The slow pace of going back to work, success of tools like Zoom, supply shortages, and inflation are examples of factors not considered in much of our risk analysis. Political change, an increase in crime, and higher levels of stress are creating more uncertainty when assessing change and potential. These can all add to excessive losses beyond normal probabilities.
Another inhibitor of success are enablers. While experience and expertise can improve results, one of the worst strategies in our changing environment is tradition or the mindset that “we have always done it this way.” It simply ignores change, alternatives, and processes, and is frequently fueled by proponents who fear those same things. Sexual harassment, equal wages, and COVID vaccines are some examples where progress has been exceptionally slow due to people being unwilling to recognize the need for change and accept and implement new ideas.
Currently, everyone seems stressed and frustrated with issues like crime and inflation. However, enablers seem focused on short-term solutions rather than a true commitment to solving the problems. We must also recognize that many of these are worldwide issues. For example, both France and Israel are experiencing political disruption as well.
Additionally, inflation, oil prices, and supply shortages are all causing great disruption, which increases risk, but these unknowns will also create opportunities. Innovation in solutions like electric cars is a key area where there is ample opportunity.
Risk management is also affected by quantitative versus qualitative considerations. On one hand, quantitative measures are objective, comparable, and easier to document. However, we must ensure we are using the right measures and analyzing correctly. Qualitative data, on the other hand, can measure issues we don’t always consider and allows for intuition. But, these processes can be compromised easily or measure wrong factors. In particular, bias occurs much more frequently in qualitative analysis.
Risk analysis should also include the various impacts of diversity. The world is creating a significant amount of new wealth, yet income disparity is increasing, with 1% of U.S. households owning over 50% of the wealth. While there is more integration and assimilation, tensions have also risen in political, economic, and social structures.
When it comes to risk, we also need to consider ignorance and ways to manage it. Ignorance shows up in a number of ways, which require different approaches. Some ignorance is just the unknown—like the economy next year, the long-term pandemic impact, and potential new technologies (such as a longer lasting electric car battery). While we can’t assure certainty, we can research alternatives and their consequences.
Some ignorance comes from a lack of knowledge. Consequently, a focus on bias, parameters, and assumptions should be included in risk analysis. For example, we should understand our target audience and trends like the growing diversity and wealth in our country.
Ignorance can also be a function of pure denial. Assuming excess confidence or unilaterally accepting respected colleagues can affect risk assessments. We can avoid denial by embracing openness and searching for alternatives. Organizations need to welcome measurement and feedback. Observing, understanding, and sharing financials, operations reports, and sales reports are the first step. Simple research tools (which social media can provide) should be used regularly. A management style such as the “walk around” and simply asking, “How are you doing? Is there anything you need?” can be priceless. Look for alternatives and ‘what if’ discussions.
Viewing risk as an opportunity rather than an obstacle can help produce positive results. Change is occurring faster and faster and we must resist the urge to crave the comfort of consistency and reliability. We need to shift our mindset to one that expects risk. This might make you feel uneasy, but know that we are all in the same boat. Try to remember that staying flexible will make adapting easier. And implementing sound, proven strategies will not only set you up for success, but put you in a position to effectively and efficiently manage risk.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His team of experts will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
Risk is a critical part of every decision. And, frankly, I think we all need more of it. We tend to think of risk as a taboo concept and it’s really not—once you understand it.
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In order to benefit from risk, you need to define what risk is to you. Some people view risk as the “potential for harm or hazard” (think bungee jumping). I view risk as an “uncertain circumstance in which one manages to maximize the gains.” But, how do you maximize the probability of success?
Here are some key parameters that affect risk-based decisions:
Consider conditions. For example, you have almost certain probability that, in general, October will be cooler than September. However, forecasting a certain day adds risk and uncertainty.
Reduce risk where you can to allow even more risk in other areas. For example, more analytics in sports is creating opportunities to assess strengths/weaknesses and create new winning strategies. It has enabled athletes to take more three-point shots, hit more home runs and longer golf drives, and score more touchdowns. Similarly, surfers used to ride 29-30 waves and now they are comfortable in 50 to 80-foot waves. Jet Ski rescues, inflatable vests, and leashes are among the tools that reduce uncertainty and increase potential.
Know the value and probability of the reward. Winning the lottery has an extremely high reward, but also has low probability. Purchasing investment bonds has lower return than buying stocks, but the risk and volatility of buying stocks is higher.
Value is also affected by the law of diminishing returns, which states that: as the input or value increases, the incremental changes become less important. It is easily summarized by the old saying, “Too many cooks spoil the broth.” Other examples include adding superfluous benefits to an offer, endless presentations, annoying excessive service, or just making the reward dramatically above what is needed or desired. Let’s say you love pie, but only have it once in a while as a treat. In this instance, the value is higher. But, if you eat it every day, it becomes less special and the value decreases. The same goes for a visit with your in-laws: Once a month is good, one a week might be less good, and every day might really be pushing it…
Understand the perceived importance of the reward. People generally regret losses more than they appreciate gains—and that is a key factor to consider when making any decision. When choosing a college to attend, decisions depend on area of course study, school size, location, tuition, the school’s reputation, etc. Are some of these factors more important than others? It varies depending on the individual.
The benefits from risk are a result of integrating the above examples to maximize results. Let’s look at the game of craps as an example: When you roll two dice, there is over a 40% probability you will roll a 6, 7, or 8 and about a 6% probability you will roll a 2 or a 12. So, if you’re placing a bet, knowing the odds (i.e. the probability of the reward) will reduce the risk. Betting is based on your willingness to risk in order to earn higher or lower rewards. The most forgotten aspect of craps (and all betting, for that matter) is that, over the long run, the house wins which is why casinos are so profitable.
Risk needs to managed rather than feared. Understanding the risk, the rewards, and the importance of each can help you improve outcomes. Don’t allow fear, uncertainty, or tradition to lower your potential and prevent you from trying something new. Only those who dare to risk going too far can find out how far one can go.
Key factors to consider to increase the benefits from risk:
Understand all the information. Knowing background, probabilities, and parameters can greatly enhance outcomes. For instance, investment decisions are greatly influenced by history and trends. However, because there is so much change due to the pandemic, the risk is now more volatile and opportunistic. Knowing the circumstances around your decisions is key.
Psychology. Assessing risk has a number of psychological constraints: a) People tend to take more risks to win back losses and less risks to follow up on winnings. b) Marketers love to push fear. When you are buying a car, appliance etc., they push its safety, reliability, and excellence. After you commit, they try selling a warranty. They induce fear by citing all the things that can go wrong. c) We overestimate our skills and luck. Tons of profits are made at casinos and in sports betting based on countless people believing that they can beat the odds.
Think about your decisions and the outcomes. We often perceive decisions as win-lose situations where one-party wins and another loses, but there are different types of decisions. Changing that mentality to “win-win” can have dramatic benefits and we tend to underestimate the opportunities we have to achieve this. For example, who would have believed decades ago that the mergers of Vietnam and Germany would be so successful? So, when making a choice, brainstorm ways to maximize benefits all around.
Rethink your strategy: Zero sum game versus non zero-sum game. Which are you employing? The best negotiations result in both parties winning. This takes collaboration, assessing varying (or even opposing) goals, and increasing the metaphorical “pie.” In particular, try to understand what is important and unimportant for each party involved. For example, many traditional retailers viewed online shopping as a liability in terms of disrupting their regular business. Now, they’re viewing it as a savior, recognizing it’s a safe and effective way to meet the needs of their consumers.
Risk mitigation. The best, simplest, inexpensive, and most effective way to mitigate risk is to gather more information. The more you know about making a decision, the less risk it will involve. Other tools include: insurance, diversification, and leverage. One of the challenges of mitigation is that people often use it to take even more risk and that defeats the purpose.
Listen to your gut. Sometimes you just have to ignore some of the information and go for it. We tend to overthink things or we let fear stop us from taking risks, but there is no gain without trying and no reward without risk. If your intuition is telling you something, it’s usually worth listening.
Risk needs to managed rather than feared. Understanding the risk, the rewards, and the importance of each can help you improve outcomes. Don’t allow fear, uncertainty, or tradition to lower your potential and prevent you from trying something new. Only those who dare to risk going too far can find out how far one can go.
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Startup Connection
When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster.
Call (914) 632-6977 or email me at bshlensky@startupconnection.net. Don’t leave without signing up for our useful free eBook!
Feeling stumped or overwhelmed? Contact Bert at (914) 632-6977 or Email to start the process. Thanks!
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I dedicate this article in memoriam of Daniel Kahneman, a champion of rationality, who recently passed away at the age of 92. This piece reflects on his profound influence on our understanding of rationality. Kahneman's work inspired a critical examination of the...
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These days business just isn’t about playing it safe or going with the status quo. Chances need to be taken. Such is the case for what is commonly called the business outlier, or in other words a professional who doesn’t follow the standard model of business in any given industry or market. Some might even call them trendsetters, whistle blowers, or even “contrarians.” I, of course, call them the hidden gems. The ones who might have an idea that’s never been tried before — and you never know, you just might be the first person to score a new niche, tap into a new market, or penetrate a brand-new revenue source no one ever thought existed.
So Here’s Some Strong Advice for You: Listen to That Business Outlier. And Take Some Chances.
The challenge, though, is the fact that oftentimes the outlier or contrarian might push a few buttons or ruffle a few feathers, because let’s face it: going against the grain can cause issues. And sometimes going against the grain means you’ve got that loud voice that yells out into the crowd that the old way of working just doesn’t work anymore, and you’re all stupid, when that’s also not true.
So exercise caution — and listen to that enthusiastic business outlier. You might pull some really clever golden nuggets out of that business networking conversation.
Think of the landscape we’re currently in. Changes are aplenty. Think of the fact that we have so many ways of borrowing money at 2% to 5% or even no interest on 6-month credit cards, but even now companies are going with 12-20% requirement for returns while passing on other opportunities.
I implore you: don’t. Never assume, especially on outdated stuff. Try something new. You never know if it’ll work if you’re not testing it in your business model.
So Are You, In Fact, Testing Out Any New Business Ideas and Challenges?
If so, fantastic. If not, please reconsider. Chances are pretty darn good that even if it doesn’t work, you just knocked another low card in the deck, which gets you to that ace in there. After all, good business is like a deck of cards. A numbers game. Keep going through all of them until you land the full house.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of The Startup Connection, directs all small business clients toward maximum sales and profit thanks to his 40 years of high-quality experience. He does this through technological, social, and online integration, supercharging your business success into the next level, so don’t hesitate to sign up for a free consultation RIGHT NOW.
Business risk happens to be a wolf in sheep’s clothing. However, if you give all the sheep hockey sticks and a puck like Wayne Gretzky, that wolf will likely hide behind the goal’s net. No one likes getting hit by the puck several dozen times! But we get it, though: we’re afraid of ticking off that wolf, and lo and behold: the wolf might come out from behind that net and start really nasty grunge fights with each sheep, and instead of a hockey game, we have a slaughter on our hands.
Honestly, Business Risk Is a Lot Like That: an Angry Wolf
But here we have the key to taming that wolf — we mentioned Wayne Gretzky.
It turned out he had quite the quote that makes perfect sense in hockey —
“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”
When you think about it, that makes perfect sense! And there’s no way around it. Truthfully, if you’re running a business, you have to accept the fact that you’re always going to be facing risk. And if you run away from it, the risk is even greater.
The key to managing risk is to take those chances — and learn from the historical data. Part of the problem is that we think risk is a lot bigger than it actually is. That wolf does look a lot bigger on the ice rink — until you start chucking pucks at him.
Sadly we’re creatures of habit, and before the innovation of technology — the Internet, mobile, Google, Amazon — we didn’t have a lot of “pucks” to chuck at the wolf like Wayne Gretzky would. So we were stuck on the old methods and didn’t want to try something new. And it’s understandable! — after all, we can’t predict much results with new programs or methods, because there’s nothing as far as historical data for us to analyze.
Thankfully, I Have the Goods Here About How to “Take All the Shots” Like Wayne Gretzky and Manage Risk Without Failure:
Here are some tools to keep in mind as you manage risk head-on while moving forward in your small business:
Measure, Estimate, Prioritize, and Adapt — Testing and experimenting are the keys to taming that wolf. In fact, we once had a client simply focus on key inventory items, eliminating unproductive factors by just looking at the clicks and monitoring the Google Analytics data. It’s simple. That’s one slap shot you can take like Wayne Gretzky.
Follow the 80/20 and 90/30 Rules — Develop your business methodology down to these numbers, and it’ll be a lot easier to forecast results. The 80/20 rule is how you’ll expect 80% of your sales coming from 20% of the offerings you make. So do the math. Likewise, 90% of all perceptions of your product will be realized in your customers’ heads within 30 seconds. So, in other words — make enough shots at the goalie in a short period of time, and you’ll definitely expect a lot of scores.
Lastly…. You Will Make Some Mistakes, and That’s OKAY — Why? Because that gives you the opportunity to adapt. After all, the longer you keep making those shots, the more hits you’ll make over time.
In other words: the more business risk you take, the less risk there will be.
It’s Not Easy, and You Need to Exercise Caution, Obviously
Simply be strategic. Don’t go all out. But balance your efforts. After all, Wayne Gretzky didn’t win on sheer will and tenacity alone; he had the skill.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of The Startup Connection, directs all small business clients toward maximum sales and profit thanks to his 40 years of high-quality experience. He does this through technological, social, and online integration, supercharging your business success into the next level, so don’t hesitate to sign up for a free consultation RIGHT NOW.
Search
Startup Connection
When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster.
Call (914) 632-6977 or email me at bshlensky@startupconnection.net. Don’t leave without signing up for our useful free eBook!
Feeling stumped or overwhelmed? Contact Bert at (914) 632-6977 or Email to start the process. Thanks!
niche, tap into a new market, or penetrate a brand-new revenue source no one ever thought existed.
