I dedicate this article in memoriam of Daniel Kahneman, a champion of rationality, who recently passed away at the age of 92.
This piece reflects on his profound influence on our understanding of rationality. Kahneman’s work inspired a critical examination of the economic models that too often claim constancy, only to unravel under real-world conditions. He prompted us to reconsider our assumptions and the very notion of rationality.
Rationality and the Real World
Kahneman, his colleagues, and followers led the movement towards questioning rationality. Many of us have listened to economic arguments that start with “ceturus paribus “(all things being equal) and then proceed with all kinds of formulas that ignore that warning.
Kahneman stimulated us to challenge assumptions and what is perceived as rational thought. In particular, changing data, bias, wrong data, and wrong interpretations can greatly alter analysis. One of the best examples is the pandemic where we didn’t – and still don’t – fully understand or consider the disruptions and their impact. It’s been a stark reminder of how unpredictable variables can render our data and logic incomplete.
The Dynamics of Decision-Making
I argue considering issues like bias, probability, time, and value can greatly enhance the rationality of decisions. We often assume that the information behind probability is correct. Stock advisors’ have been wrong far too often particularly as it relates to stocks that continue to increase. Our sports teams’ probabilities are probably the most common example of overestimating the rationality of outcomes. Our perceptions can significantly affect the probabilities we use. We should consider how biases color our forecasts, often painting an unrealistically rosy picture. It’s a reminder that our self-perception can diverge significantly from how others, such as our supervisors, may assess us.
Time is also a crucial factor in our decisions. A small entrepreneur is frequently worried about short-term returns in order to make a living. Venture capitalists expect short-term losses in order to grow businesses and make huge long-term gains. Similarly, the actual value of a lottery jackpot can significantly diminish when the payout time arrives. Acknowledging the importance of timing can guide more rational decisions.
The Pursuit of Better Data
We need more focus on the nature, quantity, and quality of data. The more data, the more reliability – and the less data, the more variability. We need to assure that the variables we consider to predict success are, in fact, reliable. As we navigate through an ever-changing landscape of social, economic, and political shifts, the need for accurate and comprehensive data becomes increasingly apparent.
Confidence in the Face of Uncertainty
Confidence, too, plays a vital role in shaping our strategies. Risk is underestimated by worrying about losses more than gains, ignoring outliers, and not following intuition; the success that can follow initial setbacks.
Confidence is greatly affected by understanding the parameters of decisions. Playing cards with your friends is a zero-sum game because the total winnings equal the total losses except for expenses. Investing in the stock market is over the long-term a win-win because history shows it has increased 5-15% annually. Gambling in total is a lose-lose because the house wins a particular percentage on bets. Yet we continue to lose money on an enormous amount of gambling debts.
Failure is often a requirement for success. As Thomas Edison said, “I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.”
Yet we sometimes fail to recognize its value in the process of achieving success. For example, fear and uncertainty accelerate the concerns about failure. Many studies have shown that we are about twice as likely to avoid losses as pursue gains. For example, we will trade stocks with gains twice as fast as selling stocks with losses despite tax advantages for selling losses. Sports teams consistently take fewer three-point shots, steal fewer bases, and attempt fewer two-point conversions than the odds would dictate.
A key process to mitigate failure is to analyze, test, measure, evaluate and examine alternatives. Why are kids not afraid of failure yet we become more afraid as we age? Just watch kids try things after they fail. I am always impressed with kids who won’t stop riding after they learn to ride a bicycle. It’s this fearlessness in the face of failure provides a valuable lesson in resilience for all of us.
Rationality also includes compromises. We tend to prefer to avoid loses rather than pursue gains. For example, most people will choose to flip a coin to avoid losses rather than do nothing for an equal choice.
Bias and Decision-Making
Bias is a critical issue in disrupting decisions and rationality. In fact, bias is one of the greatest complications when it comes to accuracy in the scientific analysis of decisions. This includes statistical problems like sampling, measurement, and development of information. For example, demographic considerations like aging, ethnic background and geography are not fully considered.
I also believe that social bias can be more impactful than statistical bias. This includes our preconceived perceptions and assumptions. I’m always amazed that many programmed employee selection tools outperform interviews especially in jobs requiring specific skills. Such tests remove things like unconscious age, sex, and racial discrimination.
Cultural Influences on Rationality
Cultural and environmental influences on bias suggest that our backgrounds can both hinder and facilitate understanding. Shared origins can often lead to more harmonious interactions. For example, dress, demographics, weather, location, and culture all affect perceptions in the decision-making process. These can also be used to your advantage. For instance, whenever I meet someone who is also from the Southside of Chicago, agreement on differences becomes much easier.
Climate Change: A Rational Approach Needed
Climate change represents a glaring example of collective inaction in the face of overwhelming scientific consensus, emphasizing the urgent need to shift toward sustainable practices. For the 10th consecutive month, Earth in March set a new monthly record for global heat — with both air temperatures and the world’s oceans hitting an all-time high for the month, according to European Union climate agency.
Climate scientists attribute most of the record heat to human-caused climate change from carbon dioxide and methane emissions produced by gas. “The trajectory will not change until concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere stop rising, which means we must stop burning fossil fuels, stop deforestation, and grow our food more sustainably as quickly as possible. Until then, we expect to break more records.
In summary, the world is far from a place where all factors are equal or decisions purely rational. By deepening our understanding of biases, recognizing the significance of time, scrutinizing probabilities, and demanding better data, we can refine our decision-making process. There is a pressing need to embrace a more nuanced and informed approach to rationality.
Contact us for a FREE evaluation and get an alternative perspective on your business. We’d love to help you identify ways to adapt to current trends. No one has time for BS—so we’ll cut straight to the point and answer any questions you have. Reach us at:
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business & President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. Please visit our website: https://www.startupconnection.net/ for more information.
I recently spoke with two aspiring entrepreneurs about launching new businesses. Unfortunately, their chances of success seemed slim because they were more focused on their dreams of wealth than on the essential groundwork needed to thrive. They were simply unwilling to do the thinking, research and planning to be successful. Try not to be part of the 90% of entrepreneurs who fail within 5 years.
For example, the first requirement is to simply write things down. Let’s break down what’s crucial: first, you need to document your plans. This doesn’t have to be fancy; goals and strategies. Start with a flexible document that evolves as you progress, focusing on substance over style. If you can’t articulate your plans in writing, you probably haven’t thought them through.
The initial requirement to develop a successful business is to be able to describe it. What is your business concept? What do want to do, why are you different and why will you succeed? This will change as the concept evolves, but you need a framework to develop and evaluate the components of your business. This framework further guides your development and evaluation process as your idea evolves. Entrepreneurs who fail frequently don’t do this.
Consider the key components of the business. Pricing, quality, service, variety, distribution and marketing are just some of the considerations. Your approach will vary greatly depending on whether you’re selling high-ticket items or everyday goods. For example, selling Superbowl tickets for thousands of dollars is quite different from the cheap umbrella salesman who suddenly appears when it rains.
Communicate your unique value proposition to your target audience. This is one of the most difficult tasks of launching a new business. We all get excited about our differences, but does anyone understand them? Do enough customers care about your difference to change their behavior, or are they committed to a “we’ve always done it this way” mentality?
Develop, test, measure, and adapt. Business is dynamic, so your approach must be too. Many plans, forecasts, and proposals are done in a static format, with one-dimensional analysis and results. Often, they are flawed because we live in a more dynamic and interactive world.
For example, branding, marketing, pricing, and operations all must be viewed as an integrated program rather than separate and isolated activities. Similarly, businesses need to have alternatives at the ready, and processes in place to adapt. Mistakes will occur. Remember, Thomas Edison tested thousands of light bulbs before succeeding.
Will you make money? Many entrepreneurs who fail start with the wrong question: How do I raise money? But they haven’t worked out the details of why they need money, what they will do with it, and how they will pay it back.
I suggest an almost opposite approach. Develop your needs, resources, plans and cash flow and then execute programs to raise capital. Some tips to improve this:
Develop initial timed estimates that will be continually revised.
How much revenue, expenses and profit will you generate over certain periods?
What assets do you and associates have and how much can you afford to risk?
When it comes to financing, focus on understanding your needs, resources, and cash flow before seeking capital.
There are a number of tools to reduce investment needs. These include borrowing against cash flow, outsourcing, pledging personal assets, and developing investments as the business progresses. Outsourcing efforts like manufacturing, distribution, services, and rent are particularly recommended to reduce requirements and adjust as the business grows.
As a rule, most businesses take six months to a year to even start. Consider how long it will take to get off the ground and calculate your startup expenses accordingly. Have you detailed the startup expenses and investment costs to start the business? Those include overall expenses, equipment, salaries, website development, product development, administration, pre-payments (like rent deposits) and more. Remember that upfront marketing, promotions, public relations, and development costs can affect income and cash on hand.
Digital is a critical aspect of almost any entrepreneurial pursuit today. Digital tools are essential in today’s business landscape, so plan to invest in a website and other tech necessities. Digital marketing, like Google ads, frequently has the advantage of both testing and pay as you go. As a result, revenue can occur much earlier than with traditional marketing efforts.
Can you deliver what you sell? Operations and logistics are frequently viewed as secondary functions that can be outsourced. However, efficient management of inventory and staffing can make or break a business.
Balancing and managing inventory to serve demand and reduce closeouts can be critical to success. Even in service businesses, scheduling staff to meet demand and avoiding time and money wasted can be critical to success. Reducing lead times, improving flexibility, and planning can improve effectiveness and lower costs.
Many operations experts have shown that 80% of sales are derived from 20% of offered products or services. Simplicity is key. Entrepreneurs waste time, money, and frequently add confusion by adding too much complexity to their business models. When and if possible, always go to the KIS Method (Keep it Simple).
In summary, success in entrepreneurship requires careful planning, evaluation, and execution. Many failures could have been avoided with better preparation. As my former manager once said, our low success rate wasn’t due to lack of effort; it was because many entrepreneurs were better off keeping their day jobs.
Starting a business is not easy. An entrepreneur needs to understand and express his/her passion. To do so, means to develop a mission statement and a plan. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Starting a business also requires enthusiasm, energy, and persistence to market your business concepts to suppliers, customers, and investors.
For more information download a free copy of my book, Passion & Reality for Business Success.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His expert team will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
When we discuss misinformation, lying is the most common focus. However, there are numerous other types of misinformation. In particular wrong information, missing information, and unavailable information are key challenges that need to be addressed and possible resolutions provided.
We underestimate the importance of simply wrong information in our decision-making. Sources can change, measurements can be incorrect, and suddenly we’re faced with a bunch of errors that inhibit making accurate conclusions and better decisions.
Economic Forecasting, COVID-19 Impact and Embracing Humility
Many economists and forecasters were mostly wrong in forecasting a recession in 2023. While they understood inflation, they ignored the growth in employment, the economy, and consumer spending. Similarly, we are still adapting to the impact of COVID-19 on current analysis. The shifts from 2020 in almost everything from vaccine practices and death rates to how we consume entertainment to remote work must be considered as we’re considering decisions.
Changes in retail, wars, labor battles, politics, etc. are all causing disruptions in our understanding. And because we lack information and experience on issues like electric cars, A.I. and immigration, we’re in the dark and that makes it far more difficult to be able to make the best decisions.
Critical thinking isn’t just about spotting logical fallacies or identifying bias. It’s about fostering an attitude of intellectual humility, a willingness to admit we don’t know everything and to change our minds when presented with new evidence. It’s about creating a habit of asking, “Is this true? What’s the source? Are there alternate viewpoints?”.
Psychological Constraints in Risk Assessment
Certainty and risk both play a big role in misinformation. We need to understand the probability and value of decisions. We need to understand all the information that is available to us – background, probabilities, and parameters – which can greatly impact outcomes.
Figuring out risks, however, can sometimes be tricky, due to several psychological constraints:
People tend to take more risks to win back losses and less risks to follow up on winnings.
Marketers love to push our pain points and focus on our fears.
We overestimate our skills and luck, as shown in the betting industries, where huge profits are made based on countless people believing that they can beat the odds.
Navigating Bias from Statistical to Social Influences
Bias is one of the greatest complications when it comes to making accurate decisions. Professionals usually focus on statistical problems, but things like demographics, measurement, and timing matter as much, if not more. Remember, your data is only as good as your worst input.
But I think social bias – our preconceived ideas about things – is more misleading than statistical bias. Culture and the environment also factor into bias, affecting how we see things. For instance, in presentations, I’ve learned that having food available to the attendees is a hit. I’ve also learned to never be the last speaker. Past experiences and what we want to see can also cloud our judgment more than future expectations.
Misinformation in Setting Parameters, Taboo Topics and Cause-Effect Confusions
Misinformation also messes with understanding our decision parameters. We tend to see decisions as win-lose but flipping that to a “win-win” mindset can be a game-changer. We often miss out on opportunities because we underestimate the chances of everyone coming out on top.
Misinformation is prevalent in topics we tend to avoid discussing – things like religion, sex and I.Q. Santa Claus is one of the only exceptions where it seems proper to include misinformation.
Cause and effect are frequently misused in reaching decisions as well. Figuring out what really causes what, citing wrong connections, and mixing up relationships with causes – those are all common errors.
Trusting Intuition and Debunking “Bubbbe Meise”
Sometimes you must ignore some of the information and just listen to your gut. In Yiddish, there is the word “bubbbe meise” which basically translates to “old wise tales”. This would include things like chicken soup being a cold cure, or the 5 second rule where it’s safe to eat something that’s fallen on the ground if it hasn’t been there for more than 5 seconds, knocking on wood for luck, and numerous unproven folklore we follow.
My favorite is the 60-40 investment rule which has been wrong for over 10 years. We tend to overthink things or we let fear stop us from taking risks, but there is no gain without trying and no reward without risk. If your intuition is telling you something, it’s usually worth listening.
Measurement Challenges: From Gym Scales to Performance Metrics
Measurement is a clear issue in misinformation. For instance, my scale at the gym had me excited because it showed I’d lost 10 pounds over a few months. However, when I went to the doctor, that scale showed only 4 pounds lost.
So how do we improve goal setting and measurement? The first step is to think about it and consider more details and considerations. Long-term versus short-term, quantitative versus qualitative, risk and caution, objective versus subjective all need to be considered in setting goals. We also need to consider the process and complexity of measurement. For example, do you want specific, general or directional results?
Measurement has become similarly complex. How important are results, speed, motivation, innovation, and quality in measuring performance?
For example, I believe automation has improved the speed and efficiency of many customer service processes. However, customer service and satisfaction are frequently sacrificed for that automation. How many times have we been completely frustrated with ineffective electronic customer service efforts?
Promoting Social Responsibility in Fact-Checking
How do we nurture the social responsibility of fact-checking? First, let’s normalize it. Make fact-checking a routine part of how we interact with information. From the news articles we read to the social media posts we share; each piece of information should go through a fact-checking filter.
Similarly, the bandwagon effect can propel us to jump on board with popular yet baseless narratives. Understanding these psychological tendencies is key to unravelling why misinformation can sometimes be so tricky.
Let’s remember that misinformation isn’t just a problem of the information era; it’s a human problem, rooted in our cognition and emotions. By acknowledging this, we can begin to address misinformation in a more holistic way, weaving psychological insights into our strategies to counter false narratives.
Let’s strive to understand not just the ‘what’ of misinformation, but also the ‘why’. After all, knowing our adversary is half the battle won. And in this fight against misinformation, a solid understanding of the human psyche is a weapon we cannot afford to neglect.
Dr. Bert Shlensky earned a PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T., mentored a few thousand clients at Score and in his own practice, grew Sure Fit products from $50 million to $150 million in sales, including $60 million of direct internet sales, was President of WestPoint Pepperell’s Apparel Fabrics Business and headed the $400 million Culet Shirt Group. Dr. Bert knows what works and can help lead your company to greater profitability and success. For a free initial consult, reach out at bshlenksy@startupconnection.net or 914-632-6977.
At StartupConnection, we’re all about delivering blogs that are not just informative but also packed with actionable insights. We understand that information overload is real. So, we’re testing a new approach – a blog solely dedicated to parameters, giving you the space to prioritize what truly matters. We’d love to hear your thoughts on this, so feel free to drop us some feedback! In this post, we will be discussing optimizing strategies regarding making decisions and taking action.
Developing Programs with Precision
Sometimes, we’re so engrossed in creating programs that we forget about the parameters needed for optimizing strategies. Let’s simplify it. Here are some straightforward tips to consider parameters effectively:
Crafting Your Money-Making Plan
The “Pro Forma Income Statement”
This may sound a bit grand, but it’s your roadmap to cash flow.
Consider how a big marketing budget can affect your income. It may seem counter-intuitive but spending more on marketing might just boost those unit sales.
Investor-Worthy Plans
Investors crave plans but hate wild guesses. Be the entrepreneur who delivers realistic projections using templates. Specific numbers matter, even if they’re just a start. Remember that sales volume goals and pricing strategies are the building blocks of any plan.
Holistic Planning
Comprehensive Considerations
Levels of marketing, overhead, and administrative costs – they all play a role. Analytical, social, and intuitive considerations should also blend seamlessly into your plan.
Adaptability is Key
The world changes fast, and so should your strategy. Regularly review parameters like population, economy, and social values. Stay updated as the latest variables might just be the game-changer.
Navigating Cause and Effect
Decoding Relationships
Cause and effect can be spurious. Relationships involve a mix of factors. Analytics is critical, but don’t ignore intuition, risk, and low probabilities. Just like Gates, Bezos, and Jobs – master the art of thinking outside the box. It is the outliers and risktakers who create much of the innovation, excitement and change in our society.
Managing Bias and Embracing Risk
Navigating the Bias Maze
Bias, especially in small businesses, is human. Be mindful; assumptions, analysis, and data can sway your decisions. Consider different age groups without falling into bias traps.
Risk and Outcomes
Predicting results with historical data is straightforward. However, for new programs or inconsistent data, it’s about educated estimates. Embrace risk as it’s where innovation thrives.
Commit to Action
Nike’s Wisdom: JUST DO IT!
Not making a decision is a decision in itself. Recognize the importance of parameters in your decision processes.
Balancing the 80-20 Rule
Strategic Account Maximization
The 80-20 rule suggests maximizing old accounts with increased potential before reaching out to new accounts. Balance critique with support, collaboration, and teamwork.
The Expertise Quotient
Seeking and using expertise might be the missing link in your strategy. Collaboration enhances effectiveness, so let’s focus on teamwork as well as obtaining expert support.
In summary, understanding and incorporating parameters into your decision-making process is the secret sauce for success. So, let’s navigate these parameters together and remember that optimizing strategies will help to pave the way for effective and strategic decision-making.
Contact us for a FREE evaluation and get an alternative perspective on your business. We’d love to help you identify ways to adapt to current trends. No one has time for BS—so we’ll cut straight to the point and answer any questions you have. Reach us at:
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business & President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. Please visit our website: https://www.startupconnection.net/ for more information.
To effectively gauge opportunities and tackle challenges, take charge – a handy tool is reviewing your past results, current challenges, and potential opportunities down the road. While a bit of analysis and number-crunching can be beneficial, my advice is to keep things informal and swift. The key here is to concentrate on spotting opportunities and embracing change, steering clear of getting bogged down in the intricacies of the review process. Let’s shift the focus to identifying and assessing alternatives instead of merely singing your own praises.
Building on Success
The best opportunities are frequently found by building on success rather than repeating disappointments. Take health, for instance. There’s a world of opportunities to boost your well-being beyond the obvious options of exercise, a balanced diet and annual checkups. In the ever-evolving health scene, there’s a constant flow of new medications to prevent problems that we can take charge of if we stay informed.
Financial Snapshot
Now, let’s ask ourselves the big questions: How are you doing right now, and what do you want to achieve? Get a snapshot of your financial landscape, factoring in your growth, age, wealth, and goals. If retirement is here or peeking around the corner, consider your goals, wealth, income, and maybe leaving a little something for the next generation. Here’s my two cents: take a bit of risk, understand your investments, as well as your financial advisor’s recommendations.
Reality Check
After gathering your data, give your findings a reality check by going over them with someone – a professional, an expert, or a colleague. Trust is key here, so the person you consult with needs to be knowledgeable enough that you can trust their feedback.
Mapping Your Journey
Now let’s talk about career and life. What’s on the horizon for next year? Can you hit your job goals, or is it time to re-evaluate them? Do you need to tweak your work-life balance, maybe dive into some new activities or maybe let go of ones you simply don’t enjoy anymore? This is the time to take charge mapping out your personal GPS for the next leg of your journey.
Communication and Cooperation
When it comes to communication, how do we go about cooperating to create a win-win situation?It is well proven that tactics like collaboration, trust, and listening work better in decision making than dictating, lecturing, and proclaiming false expertise. There’s extensive research supporting the idea that people resist change unless they can see what’s in it for them. When given the opportunity to argue your case, try to emphasize the benefits for the other party. If you can make them, see the positives they’ll reap in the compromise, you’re much more likely to convert them.
Risk and Creativity
Let’s talk risk. Consider when it would be beneficial to break free from the predictable and try something more creative. Making decisions and taking risks are a dance between probability and information. Predicting outcomes with solid data is one thing, but it’s a different ball game when it comes to new ideas. Help take charge of your future. And remember that sharing information often maximizes benefits for everyone.
Fresh Ideas and Strategies for Growth
Below you’ll find links to some recent blogs to help take charge of improvement in all areas. Hopefully, reviewing some of the suggestions from this list inspires you to incorporate some fresh ideas and explore various strategies. We also recommend using the content to develop and test new alternatives and solutions. In your efforts, don’t be afraid of some failures along the way—it’s the best way to learn and grow.
And remember, as the year comes to a close and stress levels tend to increase, be kind to yourself and others, find ways to relax, enjoy time with family, but also make time for yourself. Take deep breaths, cut yourself some slack, and know that your best is enough. Prioritizing can dramatically improve results. Focus on what you are good at and don’t sweat the small stuff. Think about it this way – most sports analytics are based on getting players to focus on the efforts with the greatest probability of success.
In a nutshell, taking stock of your current status can add to the excitement and potential of your efforts. Aim for accomplishment and satisfaction. Prioritize tasks and set realistic goals. Remember that accepting risk and managing change allows you to maximize your efficiency and accomplish more. Don’t shy away from those out-of-the-box opportunities either. And who knows, your next move might be a game-changer in making next year your year.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His expert team will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster.
Call (914) 632-6977 or email me at bshlensky@startupconnection.net. Don’t leave without signing up for our useful free eBook!
Feeling stumped or overwhelmed? Contact Bert at (914) 632-6977 or Email to start the process. Thanks!
