One of the key responsibilities of an entrepreneur is the ability to make great decisions. If you choose the right approach, you’ll likely make faster and more effective decisions. But if you choose the wrong decision-making approaches, you could be courting disaster.
One of the most common decision-making approaches to making business decisions is by using data-driven analytics rather than intuition. However, I believe you’ll make better decisions by balancing these styles rather than by choosing one over the other. Take a look at the video Passion and Reality to get an idea of what I mean.
There are times when using analytics is the right call and times when it isn’t. Using data to make decisions is critically important because it reduces the tendency to make poor decisions; however, there are times when you need to trust your gut instincts.
So how exactly do you balance analytics and intuition? If you have the necessary data at your fingertips, then you should analyze that data to identify patterns, obtain actionable insights, and use those insights to make your business decisions. However, you shouldn’t avoid making decisions just because you don’t have all the pertinent data. Rather, this is when you also need to rely on your intuition to get the job done.
The fact is that many of our great innovators were highly intuitive people. In the words of Apple co-founder Steve Jobs, “The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.”
A Flexible Business Plan Is Key
It’s important to develop a business plan that specifies your goals and explains how you plan to achieve those goals. This plan should include sections on your products and/or services, marketing strategy and analysis, and budget.
The fact is that the business world is in a constant state of flux and if you can’t change with it, you’ll be left behind. That’s why it’s critical to ensure that you create a business plan that’s flexible—one that will adapt to market changes and advancements in technologies as this will give your organization a competitive edge.
A flexible business plan lets you keep track of your progress and adjust, when necessary, by showing you where you’re going and how you anticipate getting there. And it also helps you remain focused on what’s important, enabling you to achieve your long-term goals.
In addition, if you need to secure funds from lenders, investors, or other sources, a flexible business plan will help you get the capital you need because these sources want to see that you’re able to adapt and pivot as the market changes. If you have a flexible business plan, you can show them that you’re able to handle whatever the future holds.
The Importance of Understanding Risk
Your life as an entrepreneur involves taking risks that can impact you and your business. So, before you decide to launch a new venture, it’s important that you understand the risks as well as the rewards associated with owning a business.
Every business operates in extremely uncertain environments that can produce significant levels of risk but also generate substantial rewards. Taking risks means identifying, evaluating, mitigating, and experimenting with potential strategies and opportunities that could help you build your company.
It’s also important to understand that while you are focusing on profits and cash flow to ensure your company’s viability, venture capital firms, on the other hand, only expect a fraction of their investments to show good returns, and they frequently focus on growth rather than profits.
In general, entrepreneurs can afford more risk. Consequently, it’s important that you consider that the upsides of many risks are much greater than their limited downsides. Additionally, you need to understand the outcomes and accept failure as part of the process.
Overcoming Decision-Making Bias
For your startup business to succeed, you must make fair and accurate decisions in terms of how you treat your workers and how you serve your customers.
The best entrepreneurs are those who can absorb and analyze all the information available to them to make business decisions that are logical and objective. Of course, you’re going to make some mistakes. But most of the mistakes you’ll make stem from inherent biases that distract you and cause you to make poor decisions and exhibit bad judgment.
Not only that but letting personal preferences affect the objective decision-making process, even unconsciously, can severely undermine your authority and image in your own company.
While experience and expertise can improve results, one of the worst strategies in our changing environment is to stick fast to the “we have always done it this way” mindset.
This mindset simply ignores change, alternatives, and processes and is frequently fueled by those who fear those same things. Sexual harassment, equal wages, and COVID vaccines are some examples where progress has been exceptionally slow because people are not willing to recognize the need for change and accept and implement new ideas.
However, quantitative analysis does not automatically solve bias. On one hand, quantitative measures are objective, measurable, comparable, and easier to document. Still, we must ensure we are using the right measures as well as measure and analyze correctly.
Qualitative data, on the other hand, can measure issues we don’t always consider and allow for intuition. But these processes can be compromised easily or measure wrong factors. In particular, bias occurs much more frequently in qualitative analysis.
Qualitative data can measure issues we don’t always consider and allow for intuition. But they can be easily compromised and measure the wrong factors. In particular, bias occurs much more frequently in qualitative analysis.
Consider Changes in Parameters
You should also give more weight to external parameters than basic plans and strategies when you’re developing programs and making decisions. It’s important that you regularly review and consider changes in parameters, such as population, the economy, political environment, and social values, as many of these variables are changing faster and more often than ever before. So not only do you need to understand parameters, you definitely need to keep up with the latest ones.
You should also consider your target market. Many businesses think everyone needs their products when, in reality, most people don’t need any product. So, if you want to figure out who will buy you goods or services, make decisions based off supported data and hone in on your demographic.
Replace Hierarchy
Most organizations are based on hierarchy but flatter and more collaborative organizations are actually more effective as they encourage more diverse input by enabling employees at all levels to participate and contribute to the objectives of the business. A flatter organization prioritizes collaboration, clear communication, and the free exchange of ideas.
Through collaboration and analysis, businesses can develop more efficient structures that rely on expertise via a variety of resources. And adding new positions and creating functional groups (where individuals or departments are in charge of their own specialties) will encourage more educated decisions and reactive change.
The Bottom Line
Being an entrepreneur should be an exciting and potentially profitable effort. However, it takes time, analysis, capital, and commitment. As an entrepreneur, you need to understand and express your passion. And to succeed, you must use this passion to overcome any obstacles or challenges that might come your way.
However, that doesn’t mean you should ignore reality. Many entrepreneurs overlook key elements in running a successful business, often ignoring details and analysis. It’s no wonder so many startups fail.
If you want to be successful, you must allow your passion to drive you, while letting reality guide you to where you need to be. Using some basic tools, such as planning and operations, the process can become more predictable. And understanding such things as the environment, bias, structure, and demographics, can help you make the best possible decisions for your business.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. Our strategy includes clear steps, and over 150 free articles and templates to facilitate your efforts and guide your process. We’re here to help you get on track and stay there as you move forward. You might start with our quick video here.
We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write us at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at 914-632-6977
Imagine you’re taking a road trip. You’ve planned out your entire route. You know every highway you’re going to take and every stop you’ll make along the way. Now, imagine you’re following the directions you’ve made when suddenly there is a huge detour. A landslide is blocking the road—rocks and debris everywhere. What do you do? Forge ahead on the same dangerous path even though it would utterly ruin your car and cause you injury? No. Of course you wouldn’t do that. That would be dumb. You would find another, safer road to get to your destination successfully.
This is exactly why we need to realize that the best plans are flexible. Too many times, we create a plan and think that it’s final. But, how can something be final when you don’t know what variables will exist down the road (pun intended!)?
And yes, you do need a plan, but it needs to be dynamic and flexible so that it can adapt to changing circumstances. Long detailed business plans designed for a third party like an investor or a plan that has no flexibility are usually not productive because they are too static to be useful in a real-life scenario. A popular alternative, based on a variety of “lean startup principles,” is to skip the plan in favor of an organic plan that tests alternatives, measures, and adapts to changes in your business and the environment. Try to remember that the best plans are flexible.
A dynamic plan has some significant advantages. It allows you to examine options like a good, better, and best forecast. Dynamic plans also allow you to gain some understanding of the interaction of variables. For example, it can show you how variables like growth, marketing, operating expenses, and investment affect sales, profit, and growth. Most importantly, it encourages the exploration of alternatives rather than relying on a fixed model.
Developing a dynamic plan still requires covering traditional basics, such as:
Plans must balance the need to dream with the need to be realistic. The solution is frequently to develop backups, prepare for contingency, and accept failure. In particular, failure is often a requirement for success. Yet, we sometimes fail to recognize its value in the process of achieving success. For example, fear and uncertainty accelerate the concerns about failure. Many studies have shown that we are about twice as likely to avoid losses as pursue gains. We must listen to that little voice that whispers, “How will you know it won’t work if you don’t try?”
And, if it doesn’t work, you have more information to utilize for the next attempt.
Finally, setting clear goals is essential to an effective plan. As Mark Twain said, “If you don’t know where you are going any road will get you there.” The distinction between dynamic and focused are not contradictory. You need a concise summary of what the company is about and how it will achieve its mission. If you’re a human being living on Earth, you probably know that it’s very rare for things to go exactly as planned. Therefore, your business plan needs to focus on how your company will succeed in various circumstances. It should also define the target market, financial parameters, and define operational requirements. Understanding that the best plans are flexible will help you, and your business, succeed.
Remember, your plan is a tool—like a map—that is regularly considered, and modified when you come up against those landslides. Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business & President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. Please visit our website: www.StartupConnection.net for more information.
Have you ever assessed your decision making process? What are the factors you take into consideration? Too often, we neglect parameters and this is a mistake. Parameters must be included in our decision making in order to improve results.
What do I mean by this? Well, understanding risk, rewards, and the importance of various issues can help guide your decision. This includes both analytical and social issues. The realities and changes in parameters like populations, the economy, political environment, and social values should all be reviewed and considered regularly. The most important thing to keep in mind is that many variables are changing faster and more often than ever before. So, not only do you need to understand parameters, you need to keep up with the latest ones!
And while that may sound daunting, it’s the way it’s always been—change is inevitable and we must embrace it. So, don’t allow fear, uncertainty, or tradition to prevent you from trying something new.
For example, here are three different well-known approaches to decision-making. Which one are you and is it working for you?
Nike’s advice: JUST DO IT!
Steve Jobs: “Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.”
Traditional ideology: “We have always done it that way.
Now, here are some considerations to help improve our understanding of parameters and inform how we approach decision making to get better results:
Not making a decision is a decision. If you see the right choice and fail to act on it, that’s a mistake. For example, lots of people think about quitting their jobs, but few actually do. Similarly, we talk a lot about things like health, weight loss, reducing stress, saving money, and being more supportive, but seldom do we take action.
We assume cause and effect when the relationship can be spurious. One of the oldest questions on cause and effect is the proverbial chicken and egg issue. Statistics and other details make it very easy to assume that a relationship among factors is a straight line. However, most relationships involve a variety of factors, as shown in the chart below:
Analytics can produce better results, but intuition, risk, and low probabilities can be effective. We all know the lottery is a bad bet, but some people do win. Similarly, many billionaires like Gates, Bezos, and Jobs have achieved fame by pursuing high risk and out of the box alternatives. It is the outliers that create much of the innovation, excitement, and change in our society.
Forecasting parameters can improve decision making and identify great alternatives. What are you forecasting and how will it affect your actions? For example, the pandemic has altered time perspectives in developing and analyzing forecasts. 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 all have different parameters and need to be considered as such.
The biggest problem with parameters can be bias. Most bias, especially in small businesses, is simply human. Your assumptions, analysis, and data can all unknowingly affect assumptions. Analysis of different age groups like millennials and baby boomers can vary simply by using different starting and ending birth years.
One crucial aspect of parameters is risk and outcome, which are greatly affected by probability and information. Predicting results where there are significant and consistent historical data can be fairly simple; however, predicting results for new programs or with little or inconsistent data requires developing educated estimates.
Beware of confirmation bias. Don’t we want to believe that our ideas are terrific, and thus, focus more on their potential for success? Of course, we do. The challenges associated with the ideas are sometimes given a smaller amount of our attention; it’s just human nature. We bias our analysis towards successes and tend to ignore negatives. One business that has benefited greatly from this concept is the casino business.
Organizations need to be open to measurement and feedback. Observing, understanding, and sharing financials, operations reports, and sales reports are the first step. A management style such as “walking around” and checking in with employees can be priceless.
At the end of the day, you can improve assumptions, results, effort, and process by simply knowing your parameters and understanding the use of analytics and intuition in your decision processes. As the saying goes, “A chain is only as strong as its weakest link.” Make sure to figure out where your weak links are as well as your strengths.
Contact us for a FREE evaluation and get an alternative perspective on your business. We’d love to help you identify ways to adapt to current trends. No one has time for BS—so we’ll cut straight to the point and answer any questions you have. Reach us at:
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business & President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. Please visit our website: StartupConnection.net for more information.
We’ve all been asked the glass half empty or half full question… It’s easy to give this discussion more importance than it deserves, or even make it more complicated than it really is. The bottom line is that the question aims to determine whether someone is an optimist or a pessimist. But, what this question fails to consider is whether someone is a realist. I know people who are optimist realists and some who are pessimistic realists. Both can be effective; it’s simply a matter of approach. The commonality, though, lies in the fact that they look at things from a realistic and, often, analytic lens. And that is why they get results.
Take poker, for example. Professional betters fold about 75% of the time after seeing the first two cards. Amateurs only fold 50% of the time. This has nothing to do with whether they were optimistic or pessimistic about their chances. It has to do with understanding the game and considering statistics from a strategic perspective.
The stock market is another example where assumptions and “opinions” can be dangerous. How many stocks like WeWork, Peloton, Teladoc, and Zoom all grew based on unrealistic expectations and then crashed? In 2021, nearly every new issue is down an average of more than 50%.
Furthermore, analysis and AI are valuable and often help improve results, but we have to also consider the accuracy and validity of the analysis. For example, the pandemic has made much of the data from 2019-2021 less reliable in forecasting. Economic, political, and environmental changes can impact the assumptions and process of our analysis. Case in point: higher winds and higher water temperatures from climate change worsened the impact of Hurricane Ian. Structural changes, like the war in Ukraine, crime, and inflation, can also affect our assumptions and analysis.
Timing and circumstances should also greatly influence our perceptions and predictions. While we may understand product life cycles, we often forget how age, competition, and technology can affect our progress. For example, over 60% of advertising is over the Internet rather than traditional media. And many politicians and managers continue to serve despite waning capabilities and energy.
In general, being optimistic is frequently recommended to keep a positive attitude, understand potential, and motivate maximum efforts. And, while many issues require evaluation, there are plenty of opportunities to capitalize on optimism. The pandemic has stimulated new opportunities like working from home and virtual learning that need to be given time to reach their potential. For example, small Universities are sharing courses with other local Universities to expand the offerings available to students. These need more analysis and objective thought rather than simple opinions to have success—this is where that realism comes back in play. It’s great to be excited about good ideas, but we also need to take a realistic look at whether they are effective.
And, when it comes to decision-making and implementing new ideas, we can all afford more risk. People tend to have a pessimistic view of risk-taking. Or, they believe you need to be optimistic to benefit from risk. But, it’s really more about being realistic and evaluating results and considering alternatives. We need to recognize that the upside of many risks is much greater than the limited downside. Additionally, need to understand outcomes and accept reality. Part of that reality is that failure is always part of the process.
Other culprits that pull us away from reality include denial and bias. Denial can make us avoid potential negative outcomes or ignore facts. Bias causes us to overestimate markets, ignore competition, and not consider the issues in execution. These can be a result of our enthusiasm—we want to believe something is true because we are excited about the possibilities. This is a great example of how unchecked optimism can actually thwart our efforts.
So, how can we make sure we maintain a realistic outlook and approach?
Encourage openness. Organizations need to be open to measurement and feedback. Share financials, operations reports, and sales reports. More eyes equal more feedback. This can reduce oversight and bias.
Search alternatives. Don’t get stuck doing it one way. Try new things and see if you can do it ever better.
Discourage enablers. While experience and expertise can improve results, one of the worst strategies in our changing environment is “we have always done it this way.” It simply ignores change, alternatives, and processes. This mindset is frequently fueled by proponents who fear change and discomfort. Don’t allow people to enable this narrow-minded thinking. It’s not inclusive and not realistic.
Measure correctly. Are you in need of quantitative or qualitative measurements? On one hand, quantitative measures are simpler to document, measurable, objective, and comparable. However, we must ensure we are using the right measurements and analyzing correctly. Qualitative data can measure issues we don’t always consider and allow for intuition. However, qualitative can also be easily compromised and measure wrong factors.
In the end, whether the glass is half empty or half full doesn’t really matter as long as we can see that the glass exists and that there is more than one way to interpret how much water it holds. People will always see things differently—our education, experience, genetics, history, circumstances, and a variety of other factors influence how we view the world. Rather than arguing about the differences in our perceptions, perhaps we can discuss them and learn from each other. Together, we can expand our collective knowledge by considering the potential and opportunity that exists in our unique interpretations of data and circumstances. And with a realistic approach to analysis, and a genuine desire to pursue new, improved, and varying outcomes, we can achieve more together.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. We guide your plans for business success and unlock your profits.Our strategy includes clear steps, and over 150 free articles and templates to facilitate your efforts and guide your process. We’re here to help you get on track and stay there as you move forward.
We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write us at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at 914-632-6977
What does it take to change? As in, truly change? It is said that it takes 3 weeks or more to turn an action into a habit. And, the older we get, the more set in our ways we become. So, how then, do we enact change—within ourselves, our businesses, or even society?
In a time when being adaptable is crucial to success, organizations are changing faster than ever and, yet, it still seems we aren’t changing fast enough to keep up. This may be the result of tools that are designed to limit risk and are unable to accept compromise and open systems. For example, changes in Ukraine, mid-term elections, inflation, Trump investigations, and economic growth seem to modify our decision parameters almost daily—are our tools taking all of these factors into account in their analysis? Doubtful.
That means, in order to “keep up” with the times, we have to pay close attention to these parameters ourselves. We must not only embrace change, but be actively working to create transformative change as well.
Much attention is often given to analytics, expertise, profits, and science. However, these tools sometimes ignore critical requirements for change and better decisions: passion, focus, trust, effort, risk, and commitment. Unchecked, analytics may actually hinder transformative change.
Here are some suggestions to develop and execute more transformative change:
Consider structural changes. Society and business fail to recognize old paradigms and structures are failing. Large corporate structures, like print publications, big banks, and brick and mortar retailers, are all gradual losers, or even worse. Many large companies have tunnel vision, organizational constraints, etc., and ignore emerging technologies and opportunities. They lack the flexibility to respond to the needs of the market and use outdated solutions to new problems.
Imitate small businesses. The success of smaller, more innovative companies shows that many organizations should get smaller, or act smaller, in order to effectively deal with today’s environment. Reducing layers and creating professional cultures are a start. Boards and management need to split up organizations or create more independent groups.
Invest in innovation. Large organizations say they want excellence, entrepreneurship, innovation, risk takers, etc., but, really, they tend to encourage mediocrity. For example, short term goals, testing, and failure, which are critical parts of innovation, are punished more than rewarded. In short, organizations frequently ignore the advice, “you can’t score if you don’t take a shot.”
Look at disrupters. Mackenzie Scott (Jeff Bezos’ ex-wife who has $60 billion) is changing the structure of charitable giving. She is a disrupter in that she focuses on equality, gives only unrestricted gifts (no building or school names), and donates significant funds to lesser-known institutions, like black colleges and community organizations, to help transform their entire organization.
Implement more risk. There are more and greater opportunities. Even in sports, home runs, the three-point play, and passing in football are rapidly increasing as coaching, athletes, and analytics improve. We underestimate the potential of frequently unlimited upsides compared to limited downsides. Test more and accept that failure is frequently a requirement for success. We also need to seek transformative solutions, which may be unknown when we start a decisions process.
Embrace the relative importance of marketing over sales. Digital analysis and marketing, the Internet, and account management are examples of efforts that are replacing the good old days of personal selling and relationships.
Focus on reducing stress. The pandemic and rapid change has caused significant stress and unhappiness and we need to take action to reverse some of that damage.
Remember technology is king. Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple will survive and grow as they become even more innovative and efficient. Traditional retailers with large real estate platforms and margin requirements are at great risk. Consumers are proving to prefer the perks of working at home, fast delivery, and other convenient Internet processes. Virtual offerings will continue to expand and be utilized and, therefore, they must be integrated into our structures.
Don’t forget that service, image, andculture are frequently the biggest (and often least expensive) ways for small companies to develop a brand and differentiate themselves. Some suggestions: Focus on your target market and segment your ideal customer. Be polite, listen, and then act based on what you have learned. Become a trusted resource to your prospects by providing useful information that will help them make a good choice.
The post-pandemic changes we’re seeing should be viewed as a critical opportunity to improve sales, profit, and competitive positioning. Many include transformational change. The current state of organizations and the rapid advancement of technology are stimulating perpetual change that cannot be ignored. But, with the right mentality and a willingness to incorporate tools that will help you successfully adapt, you can thrive in this new normal.
So, where in your life, business, or community do you see a need for transformational change? And what actionable steps are you taking to fuel it? And are you committed to making those actions a habit? Because that is what it takes to truly change.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. We guide your plans for business success and unlock your profits.Our strategy includes clear steps, and over 150 free articles and templates to facilitate your efforts and guide your process. We’re here to help you get on track and stay there as you move forward. We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write us at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at 914-632-6977
When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster.
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