I dedicate this article in memoriam of Daniel Kahneman, a champion of rationality, who recently passed away at the age of 92.
This piece reflects on his profound influence on our understanding of rationality. Kahneman’s work inspired a critical examination of the economic models that too often claim constancy, only to unravel under real-world conditions. He prompted us to reconsider our assumptions and the very notion of rationality.
Rationality and the Real World
Kahneman, his colleagues, and followers led the movement towards questioning rationality. Many of us have listened to economic arguments that start with “ceturus paribus “(all things being equal) and then proceed with all kinds of formulas that ignore that warning.
Kahneman stimulated us to challenge assumptions and what is perceived as rational thought. In particular, changing data, bias, wrong data, and wrong interpretations can greatly alter analysis. One of the best examples is the pandemic where we didn’t – and still don’t – fully understand or consider the disruptions and their impact. It’s been a stark reminder of how unpredictable variables can render our data and logic incomplete.
The Dynamics of Decision-Making
I argue considering issues like bias, probability, time, and value can greatly enhance the rationality of decisions. We often assume that the information behind probability is correct. Stock advisors’ have been wrong far too often particularly as it relates to stocks that continue to increase. Our sports teams’ probabilities are probably the most common example of overestimating the rationality of outcomes. Our perceptions can significantly affect the probabilities we use. We should consider how biases color our forecasts, often painting an unrealistically rosy picture. It’s a reminder that our self-perception can diverge significantly from how others, such as our supervisors, may assess us.
Time is also a crucial factor in our decisions. A small entrepreneur is frequently worried about short-term returns in order to make a living. Venture capitalists expect short-term losses in order to grow businesses and make huge long-term gains. Similarly, the actual value of a lottery jackpot can significantly diminish when the payout time arrives. Acknowledging the importance of timing can guide more rational decisions.
The Pursuit of Better Data
We need more focus on the nature, quantity, and quality of data. The more data, the more reliability – and the less data, the more variability. We need to assure that the variables we consider to predict success are, in fact, reliable. As we navigate through an ever-changing landscape of social, economic, and political shifts, the need for accurate and comprehensive data becomes increasingly apparent.
Confidence in the Face of Uncertainty
Confidence, too, plays a vital role in shaping our strategies. Risk is underestimated by worrying about losses more than gains, ignoring outliers, and not following intuition; the success that can follow initial setbacks.
Confidence is greatly affected by understanding the parameters of decisions. Playing cards with your friends is a zero-sum game because the total winnings equal the total losses except for expenses. Investing in the stock market is over the long-term a win-win because history shows it has increased 5-15% annually. Gambling in total is a lose-lose because the house wins a particular percentage on bets. Yet we continue to lose money on an enormous amount of gambling debts.
Failure is often a requirement for success. As Thomas Edison said, “I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.”
Yet we sometimes fail to recognize its value in the process of achieving success. For example, fear and uncertainty accelerate the concerns about failure. Many studies have shown that we are about twice as likely to avoid losses as pursue gains. For example, we will trade stocks with gains twice as fast as selling stocks with losses despite tax advantages for selling losses. Sports teams consistently take fewer three-point shots, steal fewer bases, and attempt fewer two-point conversions than the odds would dictate.
A key process to mitigate failure is to analyze, test, measure, evaluate and examine alternatives. Why are kids not afraid of failure yet we become more afraid as we age? Just watch kids try things after they fail. I am always impressed with kids who won’t stop riding after they learn to ride a bicycle. It’s this fearlessness in the face of failure provides a valuable lesson in resilience for all of us.
Rationality also includes compromises. We tend to prefer to avoid loses rather than pursue gains. For example, most people will choose to flip a coin to avoid losses rather than do nothing for an equal choice.
Bias and Decision-Making
Bias is a critical issue in disrupting decisions and rationality. In fact, bias is one of the greatest complications when it comes to accuracy in the scientific analysis of decisions. This includes statistical problems like sampling, measurement, and development of information. For example, demographic considerations like aging, ethnic background and geography are not fully considered.
I also believe that social bias can be more impactful than statistical bias. This includes our preconceived perceptions and assumptions. I’m always amazed that many programmed employee selection tools outperform interviews especially in jobs requiring specific skills. Such tests remove things like unconscious age, sex, and racial discrimination.
Cultural Influences on Rationality
Cultural and environmental influences on bias suggest that our backgrounds can both hinder and facilitate understanding. Shared origins can often lead to more harmonious interactions. For example, dress, demographics, weather, location, and culture all affect perceptions in the decision-making process. These can also be used to your advantage. For instance, whenever I meet someone who is also from the Southside of Chicago, agreement on differences becomes much easier.
Climate Change: A Rational Approach Needed
Climate change represents a glaring example of collective inaction in the face of overwhelming scientific consensus, emphasizing the urgent need to shift toward sustainable practices. For the 10th consecutive month, Earth in March set a new monthly record for global heat — with both air temperatures and the world’s oceans hitting an all-time high for the month, according to European Union climate agency.
Climate scientists attribute most of the record heat to human-caused climate change from carbon dioxide and methane emissions produced by gas. “The trajectory will not change until concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere stop rising, which means we must stop burning fossil fuels, stop deforestation, and grow our food more sustainably as quickly as possible. Until then, we expect to break more records.
In summary, the world is far from a place where all factors are equal or decisions purely rational. By deepening our understanding of biases, recognizing the significance of time, scrutinizing probabilities, and demanding better data, we can refine our decision-making process. There is a pressing need to embrace a more nuanced and informed approach to rationality.
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Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business & President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. Please visit our website: https://www.startupconnection.net/ for more information.
Let’s talk about rationality – that concept we all agree is generally a good thing. Thanks to technology and analytics, we’ve got tools like GPS making our lives simpler and less stressful. But, as with most things, rationality comes with its set of challenges that we can’t just overlook.
Now, can we solve these challenges with just rational thought?
It’s a bit like Steve Jobs said, “Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.”
But then again, Thomas Edison adds a dose of reality with, “A vision without execution is hallucination.”
Rationality and analytics can be invaluable when it comes to making decisions based on models, probability, risk, and numbers. Take our firm’s analytics, for instance – it’s been a game-changer, helping clients focus on the 20% of customers or products driving 80% of their sales. Sports managing, betting and coaching decisions, too, have seen significant improvement with better analytics.
But let’s not forget the magic of intuition, creativity, passion, and out-of-the-box thinking. The fast, experiential vibe of these elements considers factors that analysis often misses. They’re almost essential for dealing with change, uncertainty, and creativity, like in supply chain management.
George Bernard Shaw said it best, “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”
When we throw in a curveball like COVID, and rationality gets trickier. Forecasting for 2020 became a special event, shaking up models for everything from workers going back to the office, students going back to the classroom, airline passenger growth, business meetings, to apparel and entertainment trends.
When you’re dealing with complex goals, things can get a bit tricky. One common challenge is figuring out how to balance growth and profit. Lately, venture capital firms have been switching gears, putting more emphasis on profit to get better returns. Then there’s higher interest rates, inflation, and moderation in the growth of technology. In addition, there’s juggling issues like supply chain hiccups, managing teams, dealing with the ever-shifting political scene, and other surprise curveballs. Take, for example, the rise in retail store theft, which has become a critical factor that’s impacting how both individual stores and big chains perform.
Do we have the information to be rational? Assumptions, demographics, time periods – they all play a role. Our perceptions can be deceiving, too. Sample surveys versus actuals show us that what we think might be rational can be way off.
Rational thought must be carefully reviewed for bias. Bias is a tricky player in the rationality game. Right-brain and left-brain thinking are different beasts, and biases are often just human. Our recent experiences can color our decisions, and analysts love their formulas, but most bias is just plain human.
Testing, measurement, and examining alternatives can improve rational analysis. How do we make rational thought work? Test, measure, and explore alternatives. Plans often fall flat because they’re too one-dimensional for our complex world. For example, branding, marketing, pricing and operations must all be viewed as an integrated program rather than separate and isolated activities.
Understanding your data can significantly improve the validity of analysis. Before getting started, be sure to understand your data. Demographics matter – the Southwest is a whole different ball game from the Northeast.
Define your parameters as well. Who’s your audience? With 330 million people in the U.S., about 40% are over 65 or under 18. 164 million are in the labor force, 30% are black and Hispanic and around 50% of most age groups are men. These totals vary considerably by region, age, and ethnic background.
Be sure not to overlook the key elements of success – operations, customer service, and logistics are just as vital as the traditional functions.
Remember that sometimes analytics can trip over its own feet. Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Simony, and Cass Sunstein, in their book Noise, point out that it can miss key metrics like mood, bias, mental state, and the like, can alter judicial decisions. Variables like hunger, how well-rested we are and personal preferences can all affect decisions. As a personal example, I’m diabetic and regular meals is a critical aspect of my lifestyle to avoid excess stress, mood swings, depression and anger.
Rationality can add complexity to simple solutions. Simplify where you can. Predicting the stock market is made overly complex while simple factors may do better, and key players matter more in sports than we often think.
Focus on factors that most affect your decisions so you can understand them and estimate factors that are not as significant. For example, look at aggregate costs and administrative expenses rather than trying to forecast small items like telephone, utility, and insurance costs.
Risk requires more personal factors be considered more than many rational models. Retirement recommendations based solely on drawing down assets might not cut it in our world of growth, low interest rates, and low inflation.
Confidence and emotion alter analytical solutions Nike’s “just do it” mantra and Sheryl Sandberg’s “What would you do if you weren’t afraid?” both speak to the power of emotion in decision-making. We often avoid actions due to fear or public perception rather than assessing potential success.
A lot of the push for giving out “participation prizes” is about making activities less stressful and competitive. On the flip side, watching kids take their first steps or ride a bike is extra special because of the joy they feel in their own success. Our feelings – whether it’s passion, dislike, or bias – really shape how we think, especially in things like love, sports, and just having fun. Sometimes, our perceptions and habits lead us to believe things that aren’t true.
Recently, scientists have been looking into how we make choices and have found that we often play it safe, avoid shaking things up, and stick to what’s comfortable.
More so, our emotions and actions are also influenced by the timing of things. When there’s a big tragedy, like a terror attack, bad weather, or war, there’s this immediate call for action and commitment. But as time passes, the costs and tradeoffs start piling up, and that sense of urgency fades away.
Rationality can be expanded to be more effective. How do we amp up rationality? Be open, embrace change, and be willing to improve and accept outside advice. Organizations need to share, understand, and observe their data. And in the end, let’s maximize rational thought but keep our eyes wide open to alternatives, assumptions, and limitations. After all, more analytics can generally be useful for small businesses, but it’s crucial that the foundation is solid.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. Our strategy includes clear steps, and over 150 free articles and templates to facilitate your efforts and guide your process. We’re here to help you get on track and stay there as you move forward. You might start with our quick video.
We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write us at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at 914-632-6977
The word “uncertain” doesn’t usually give us much hope. It implies instability, insecurity, and vulnerability—all things most of us try to avoid. But, perhaps, we can find a way to embrace uncertainty and find a way to make it work in our favor.
As we forge ahead into 2021, there will certainly be a significant amount uncertainty. Generally, we try to predict future trends based on recent past events. However, 2020 had such immense disruption that it is almost useless to use it as a base. Many argue that this uncertainty causes pessimism and lowers expectations. However, I argue we need to embrace uncertainty, as it creates opportunities and should incite positive expectations.
Why? Well, let’s take a look at the following paragraph describing American economic trends: “Despite this prosperity, major shifts were occurring in American business and the workforce. Preexisting corporations were merging and becoming larger, more powerful conglomerates. Consumers increasingly were doing their shopping at discount chain stores and their dining at inexpensive fast-food restaurants, leading to a decrease in the number of single-proprietor businesses. Meanwhile, manufacturers were relocating from the Northeast and Midwest to nonunion Southern states, taking jobs with them and robbing industrial cities of their vitality. Manufacturers also were opening factories in foreign countries to take further advantage of cheap labor. These shifts led to a decline in the power of unions.” (The 1960s Business and the Economy: Overview | Encyclopedia.com)
While this could describe much of today’s economy, it’s actually a description of the 1960s. It shows progress after disruption and it’s arguable that the 1960s had even more disruption than we have currently (consider the assassinations, civil rights, wars, and general social change). After major turmoil, we still achieved more growth, technological improvements, and social change than we’ve seen today. I believe that the stress we’re currently experiencing as a country could produce the same excitement that we saw in the 60s. On the other hand, it may be difficult to replicate Kennedy, the Beatles, a moon launch, the computer explosion, Martin Luther King Jr., and some of the other revolutionary changes that took place during that decade. But, history repeats itself…
And, historically, change usually occurs after disruption (and we have most definitely experienced a lot of that). In my own experience with corporate turnarounds, it’s much easier to motivate, innovate, and develop collaboration in troubled or changing organizations than within those whose culture is based on the closed-minded rule of “we’ve always done it this way.” It’s amazing how many individuals and organizations have incorporated new efforts like E-commerce, work-from-home, Zoom, etc. in order to adapt to the times and, as a result, have actually improved their results.
While we tend to focus on the negatives, there are many circumstances that should create a more positive environment if we learn to embrace uncertainty. The most significant may be the coronavirus. I suggest we focus our planning on the potential of the vaccine by spring or summer more than the tragic experiences of today. In other words, rather than just worrying about the possibility of shutting down in the near future, we should be adopting a mindset of: How do we keep a business viable today in order to thrive in the fall? How do we learn to embrace uncertainty?
I recommend focusing on these three areas that create significant opportunities for positive thinking: technology, expectations, and analytics.
While we seem to constantly advocate for technology, I think we underestimate it. For example, financial advisors continue to advocate balanced portfolios with traditional companies and bonds, but here’s the reality:
In 2016, if you had invested $10,000 in each of P&G, G.E., G.M, and Exxon (all among the leading companies of the day), it would be worth $35,000 or a loss of about $5000. If you had invested the same amount in Amazon, Google, Facebook and Microsoft, it would be worth $169,000 or a gain of about $139,000. If you had invested the $40,000 in 3% bonds, it would be worth about $46,000 or a gain of about $6,000. Yet, advisors tout Exxon as a great opportunity for 2021 despite the growth in electric cars, energy saving efforts, and reduced energy consumption.
Pay attention to areas like E-commerce, A.I., infrastructure, medical research, etc. These will produce dramatic opportunities for growth and investment.
Positive Expectations are a critical cause of growth and success. Venture capital, increased risk, and positive thinking can produce dramatic results. Low interest rates and inflation have had a huge impact on reducing actual risk. My favorite musical has always been My Fair Lady because of the Pygmalion effect, which infers that having positive expectations leads to enhanced performance, which results in a higher probability of success. The implication is that confidence and energy will increase if we believe in ourselves. On the other hand, a negative self-perception results in a significantly lower chance of succeeding. What we think we’re capable of, therefore, basically becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Technology and expectations can be enhanced with improved measurement and analysis. Some simple ways to implement analytics: review goals, probability, risk, and measurement. Basically, ask yourself how you’re doing and where you can improve.
More advanced analysis, testing, and measurement may include creating more dynamic and interactive efforts, which can boost the development of strategies. Allowing for failure and considering alternatives can also be useful. Incorporating operations, customer service, branding, and pricing in decision making can create new, successful approaches. Accept this fact now: Mistakes will occur. So what? Learn from them and move on. Mistakes are only bad if you keep making the same ones.
So, you see, positive expectations can have a dramatic impact on success. Yes, there is uncertainty ahead, but when has there ever been zero uncertainty? A feeling of security at any given moment doesn’t actually equate to certainty. We can’t predict the future and we don’t know what tomorrow holds. There will always be uncertainty, so embrace uncertainty and trust that the “unknown” is where possibility lives. Facing unexpected change is the fastest way to determine if you’re a pessimist or an optimist. What will you be? A defeatist or an opportunist? Why not try expecting greatness? Expect it from yourself, from others, and from the universe. Because when you expect it, it’s easier to find.
Please visit our website www.startupconection.net to book a Free Session in which we can help you develop an action plan that will evaluate potential and risk. We always discuss process, expected outcomes, and cost before you make any commitment.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His expert team will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
“The 1960s Business And The Economy: Overview.” Encyclopedia.com, www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/culture-magazines/1960s-business-and-economy-overview.
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"I'm not as interested in the strength of the economy as in whether it's on my side."](https://i0.wp.com/startupconnection.net/wp-content/uploads/Im-not-as-interested-in-the-strength-of-the-economy.jpg?resize=725%2C236&ssl=1)
