Embrace Uncertainty with Positivity

by | Jan 27, 2021 | Marketing

The word “uncertain” doesn’t usually give us much hope. It implies instability, insecurity, and vulnerability—all things most of us try to avoid. But, perhaps, we can find a way to embrace uncertainty and find a way to make it work in our favor.

"An attitude of positive expectation is the mark of the superior personality." - Brian Tracy

As we forge ahead into 2021, there will certainly be a significant amount uncertainty. Generally, we try to predict future trends based on recent past events. However, 2020 had such immense disruption that it is almost useless to use it as a base. Many argue that this uncertainty causes pessimism and lowers expectations. However, I argue we need to embrace uncertainty, as it creates opportunities and should incite positive expectations.

Why? Well, let’s take a look at the following paragraph describing American economic trends: “Despite this prosperity, major shifts were occurring in American business and the workforce. Preexisting corporations were merging and becoming larger, more powerful conglomerates. Consumers increasingly were doing their shopping at discount chain stores and their dining at inexpensive fast-food restaurants, leading to a decrease in the number of single-proprietor businesses. Meanwhile, manufacturers were relocating from the Northeast and Midwest to nonunion Southern states, taking jobs with them and robbing industrial cities of their vitality. Manufacturers also were opening factories in foreign countries to take further advantage of cheap labor. These shifts led to a decline in the power of unions.” (The 1960s Business and the Economy: Overview | Encyclopedia.com)

[while reading "Economic News" at a news stand] "I'm not as interested in the strength of the economy as in whether it's on my side."

While this could describe much of today’s economy, it’s actually a description of the 1960s. It shows progress after disruption and it’s arguable that the 1960s had even more disruption than we have currently (consider the assassinations, civil rights, wars, and general social change). After major turmoil, we still achieved more growth, technological improvements, and social change than we’ve seen today. I believe that the stress we’re currently experiencing as a country could produce the same excitement that we saw in the 60s. On the other hand, it may be difficult to replicate Kennedy, the Beatles, a moon launch, the computer explosion, Martin Luther King Jr., and some of the other revolutionary changes that took place during that decade. But, history repeats itself…

And, historically, change usually occurs after disruption (and we have most definitely experienced a lot of that). In my own experience with corporate turnarounds, it’s much easier to motivate, innovate, and develop collaboration in troubled or changing organizations than within those whose culture is based on the closed-minded rule of “we’ve always done it this way.” It’s amazing how many individuals and organizations have incorporated new efforts like E-commerce, work-from-home, Zoom, etc. in order to adapt to the times and, as a result, have actually improved their results.

While we tend to focus on the negatives, there are many circumstances that should create a more positive environment if we learn to embrace uncertainty. The most significant may be the coronavirus. I suggest we focus our planning on the potential of the vaccine by spring or summer more than the tragic experiences of today. In other words, rather than just worrying about the possibility of shutting down in the near future, we should be adopting a mindset of: How do we keep a business viable today in order to thrive in the fall? How do we learn to embrace uncertainty?

"Some people bear three kinds of trouble - the ones they've had, the ones they have, and the ones they expect to have." - H.G. Wells

I recommend focusing on these three areas that create significant opportunities for positive thinking: technology, expectations, and analytics. 

While we seem to constantly advocate for technology, I think we underestimate it. For example, financial advisors continue to advocate balanced portfolios with traditional companies and bonds, but here’s the reality:

In 2016, if you had invested $10,000 in each of P&G, G.E., G.M, and Exxon (all among the leading companies of the day), it would be worth $35,000 or a loss of about $5000. If you had invested the same amount in Amazon, Google, Facebook and Microsoft, it would be worth $169,000 or a gain of about $139,000. If you had invested the $40,000 in 3% bonds, it would be worth about $46,000 or a gain of about $6,000. Yet, advisors tout Exxon as a great opportunity for 2021 despite the growth in electric cars, energy saving efforts, and reduced energy consumption.    

Pay attention to areas like E-commerce, A.I., infrastructure, medical research, etc. These will produce dramatic opportunities for growth and investment.

Positive Expectations are a critical cause of growth and success. Venture capital, increased risk, and positive thinking can produce dramatic results. Low interest rates and inflation have had a huge impact on reducing actual risk. My favorite musical has always been My Fair Lady because of the Pygmalion effect, which infers that having positive expectations leads to enhanced performance, which results in a higher probability of success. The implication is that confidence and energy will increase if we believe in ourselves. On the other hand, a negative self-perception results in a significantly lower chance of succeeding. What we think we’re capable of, therefore, basically becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Technology and expectations can be enhanced with improved measurement and analysis. Some simple ways to implement analytics: review goals, probability, risk, and measurement. Basically, ask yourself how you’re doing and where you can improve.

More advanced analysis, testing, and measurement may include creating more dynamic and interactive efforts, which can boost the development of strategies. Allowing for failure and considering alternatives can also be useful. Incorporating operations, customer service, branding, and pricing in decision making can create new, successful approaches. Accept this fact now: Mistakes will occur. So what? Learn from them and move on. Mistakes are only bad if you keep making the same ones.

H.O.P.E. Have Only Positive Expectations

So, you see, positive expectations can have a dramatic impact on success. Yes, there is uncertainty ahead, but when has there ever been zero uncertainty? A feeling of security at any given moment doesn’t actually equate to certainty. We can’t predict the future and we don’t know what tomorrow holds. There will always be uncertainty, so embrace uncertainty and trust that the “unknown” is where possibility lives. Facing unexpected change is the fastest way to determine if you’re a pessimist or an optimist. What will you be? A defeatist or an opportunist? Why not try expecting greatness? Expect it from yourself, from others, and from the universe. Because when you expect it, it’s easier to find.

Please visit our website www.startupconection.net to book a Free Session in which we can help you develop an action plan that will evaluate potential and risk. We always discuss process, expected outcomes, and cost before you make any commitment.

Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His expert team will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.

You can reach Dr. Shlensky at: 914-632-6977

Or email: bshlensky@startupconnection.net

Resources:

“The 1960s Business And The Economy: Overview.” Encyclopedia.com, www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/culture-magazines/1960s-business-and-economy-overview.

It’s a Pandemic: Don’t Underestimate its Impact.

by | Oct 2, 2020 | Marketing

I live in New Rochelle, New York and was part of the first quarantine after the pandemic hit the United States. I think, because we were first, our neighborhood may have learned to cope slightly better than some other areas. We walk, we talk, we shop, we distance. We wear masks and, in general, we seem to be much more supportive of one another than what seems to be happening elsewhere. People were even helping each other during the power outrage that lasted several days. I am diabetic and three of my neighbors with generators offered to store my insulin. I talk to people from other neighborhoods and, from what I’ve heard, many of them could be coping better with the impact of the pandemic. I’m not referring to the poor and the sick, but people who are still working, but stressed out far too much.  

Stressed out by the pandemic

But, how do you improve your coping strategy amidst so much uncertainty and tension? A good place to start is to manage your expectations and focus on the things you have control over. In recent years, the U.S. experienced 9-11 as well as the 2007-2008 economic decline. Both of those events caused short-term disruption and long-term consequences. We are now seeing the same things happening with the pandemic and there are three key pandemic impact areas that I think should be considered as we forge ahead:

1.The most important factor is simply the pandemic itself, which is causing dramatic health, economic, and social consequences that will last through much of 2021, if not longer. There have already been approximately 200,000 deaths in the U.S. and we aren’t even close to a vaccine yet. There’s also been a shift in healthcare with Tele Visits becoming the new norm. Even if a vaccine does become available, healthcare will never be the same. Nursing home protocol, hospital financing, and virtual medical care are among the areas facing significant change. For example, it is even estimated that births in the U.S. will decline by about 500,000 or 10% in the next year.  

2.Another major impact will be economic. While much of the economy is slowly returning, industries like entertainment, travel, restaurants, and sports will undergo dramatic change. We have no idea when and how these businesses will return, but they will certainly be quite different from what they once were. For example, it is estimated that there were 600,000 restaurants in the U.S. before the pandemic. At least 20-30% will probably close within a year. Similarly, most forecasters are predicting 6-10% unemployment next year.

Additionally, working from home has become a major social phenomenon that will definitely impact the economy. People have learned that they can stay home and be more productive while having more time for themselves. This is a result of not having to commute, reducing meetings, and eliminating long lunches. Many are estimating that work-from-home could replace 20-40% of office work, especially for the next two years. This will result in several byproducts including a decline in real estate and urban stores. And as more people move to the suburbs, several other markets could dramatically be affected as well.   

The greatest impact, however, will most likely be the continued growth of income inequality. The thirteen wealthiest Americans increased their wealth almost $1 trillion dollars since the pandemic started. In contrast, the poor have increased hunger, loss of healthcare, and unemployment (especially among minorities).   

3.The third key area is political and many do not want to discuss it because there is too much emotion and uncertainty attached to the subject. However, the election this November will have a dramatic impact on our society. Our lives will be affected drastically based on who is elected—and this applies on a national, state, and local level. Minimally, there could be more diversity and focus on areas like criminal justice, income inequality, health care, and education. While partisan politics will probably increase, it is always important to focus on solutions rather than rhetoric after elections.

Now, how do we deal with all of this pandemic impact when we don’t know the what, when, or how surrounding them? The most important thing you can do is to recognize change and deal with it. Don’t be surprised or stressed out by the changes because they’re not going away. So, consider alternatives and ensure that you relax. Accept that the next several months will be like “flying an airplane while you are building it.” Sure, that might sound scary, but try to shift your thinking. Attempt to approach daunting situations like they’re challenges rather than obstacles.  

Accept the inevitable and search out opportunities. E-commerce, delivery, work at home, and tech are all growing. My local pizza parlor added lobster Wednesday night, a friend in advertising is doing yard signs for drive-by parties, drive-in movies are doing well, and other events—like virtual baby showers—are becoming popular. Companies are developing all kinds of programs in addition to Zoom that will make working from home more effective. Embrace your challenges and set your mind on problem solving.

Consider the increased opportunities for risk during this uncertain period. Basically, everything is pretty much up in the air anyway, so what do you have to lose by taking more risk? Additionally, there are lots of opportunities in areas that are permanently affected by the pandemic. Home delivery, virtual technology, and online shopping are all currently booming businesses. Even the gains in the stock market have shifted to new companies like Zoom and Tel-a-Doc.

“How will you ever know whether you’re a flying squirrel if you don’t give it a shot?”

In this rapidly changing environment, you should also do a brief self-assessment to evaluate your status quo and consider potential changes. The purpose should be to better understand challenges and opportunities rather than simply make changes. This review might include looking over your resume, evaluating your employment status, assessing potential changes in your status, education, and living environment. You should also consider what you like about yourself, your job, and your employer.

Extra Credit: Do something nice and maybe even outrageous for yourself. You probably used to spend gobs of money on restaurants, sports, travel, clothes, gas etc. that you aren’t spending now. Consider an extravagant treat for yourself. A special meal, a trip to the gourmet grocery, a health/spa treatment, a new pair of shoes, or a chauffeured car tour could all be nice distractions during this crazy time. (There are limits, however. I passed on a $50,000 chartered trip to California… and that was before meals and hotels…)

While we’re not sure what the new normal will require, we do know many of the opportunities and challenges. Avoid guaranteed failure with obsolete or doomed activities and, instead, embrace innovation, testing, and new paradigms. These cultural changes must include openness, infrastructure, and measurement. And cut yourself some slack and be kind to your neighbors… these are difficult times for us all.

Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. This combination has been the key to client success.  We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write him at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net  or call at: 914-632-6977