Have you ever assessed your decision making process? What are the factors you take into consideration? Too often, we neglect parameters and this is a mistake. Parameters must be included in our decision making in order to improve results.
What do I mean by this? Well, understanding risk, rewards, and the importance of various issues can help guide your decision. This includes both analytical and social issues. The realities and changes in parameters like populations, the economy, political environment, and social values should all be reviewed and considered regularly. The most important thing to keep in mind is that many variables are changing faster and more often than ever before. So, not only do you need to understand parameters, you need to keep up with the latest ones!
And while that may sound daunting, it’s the way it’s always been—change is inevitable and we must embrace it. So, don’t allow fear, uncertainty, or tradition to prevent you from trying something new.
For example, here are three different well-known approaches to decision-making. Which one are you and is it working for you?
Nike’s advice: JUST DO IT!
Steve Jobs: “Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.”
Traditional ideology: “We have always done it that way.
Now, here are some considerations to help improve our understanding of parameters and inform how we approach decision making to get better results:
Not making a decision is a decision. If you see the right choice and fail to act on it, that’s a mistake. For example, lots of people think about quitting their jobs, but few actually do. Similarly, we talk a lot about things like health, weight loss, reducing stress, saving money, and being more supportive, but seldom do we take action.
We assume cause and effect when the relationship can be spurious. One of the oldest questions on cause and effect is the proverbial chicken and egg issue. Statistics and other details make it very easy to assume that a relationship among factors is a straight line. However, most relationships involve a variety of factors, as shown in the chart below:
Analytics can produce better results, but intuition, risk, and low probabilities can be effective. We all know the lottery is a bad bet, but some people do win. Similarly, many billionaires like Gates, Bezos, and Jobs have achieved fame by pursuing high risk and out of the box alternatives. It is the outliers that create much of the innovation, excitement, and change in our society.
Forecasting parameters can improve decision making and identify great alternatives. What are you forecasting and how will it affect your actions? For example, the pandemic has altered time perspectives in developing and analyzing forecasts. 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 all have different parameters and need to be considered as such.
The biggest problem with parameters can be bias. Most bias, especially in small businesses, is simply human. Your assumptions, analysis, and data can all unknowingly affect assumptions. Analysis of different age groups like millennials and baby boomers can vary simply by using different starting and ending birth years.
One crucial aspect of parameters is risk and outcome, which are greatly affected by probability and information. Predicting results where there are significant and consistent historical data can be fairly simple; however, predicting results for new programs or with little or inconsistent data requires developing educated estimates.
Beware of confirmation bias. Don’t we want to believe that our ideas are terrific, and thus, focus more on their potential for success? Of course, we do. The challenges associated with the ideas are sometimes given a smaller amount of our attention; it’s just human nature. We bias our analysis towards successes and tend to ignore negatives. One business that has benefited greatly from this concept is the casino business.
Organizations need to be open to measurement and feedback. Observing, understanding, and sharing financials, operations reports, and sales reports are the first step. A management style such as “walking around” and checking in with employees can be priceless.
At the end of the day, you can improve assumptions, results, effort, and process by simply knowing your parameters and understanding the use of analytics and intuition in your decision processes. As the saying goes, “A chain is only as strong as its weakest link.” Make sure to figure out where your weak links are as well as your strengths.
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Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business & President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. Please visit our website: StartupConnection.net for more information.
When it comes to change, are you focusing on the right issues? Just a few years ago, tech stocks like Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft accounted for over 50% of stock market growth and experienced 20-40% annual gains. Currently, they are experiencing slower growth and, consequently, laying off workers. Additionally, issues like climate change, immigration, and mental health are accelerating in importance and receiving little new attention.
Many businesses as well as political, religious, educational, and other institutions are facing crises because they fail to adapt. For example, it is generally accepted that pre-kindergarten programs dramatically impact education and long-term societal goals. Yet, few school systems nationwide have adapted them. Demographics make matters even more complex: Women will soon represent over 50% of the labor force, workers over 45 have increased from 31% to 41% of the population, and over 50% of births in the U.S. are non-white.
We need new approaches and strategies to properly address these changes.
Pricing is a great place to start when reexamining strategies. In general, companies price by old strategies related mostly to supply and demand. However, there are numerous alternatives available to increase sales, better serve the customer, and impact costs. One of the best examples is bunding and unbundling. Grocery stores like Wegmans have made significant gains in offering customers things like prepared meals, take out, meals to cook etc. that compete with restaurants and provide alternatives to cooking yourself. These are generally special produts at higher margins like all the Super Bowl offerings. The charcuterie board trend with prices ranging from $30-$100 is a great example of this markup. In contrast, marketers like Amazon and Costco are masters at unbundling and offering consumers value offerings with few amenities.
Today, businesses (large, mid-sized, small, and startups) and the business management need to focus more on openness, transparency, brainstorming, and support to stimulate innovation. We have seen and acknowledged the potential positive impact that open systems have on decisions, motivation, and profitability. Unfortunately, the reality is quite different, and they are rarely happening nor are they truly supported. Why is this? I would argue that it’s because business management is lacking a realistic view of many issues and the changing environment we live in.
The management structure of many organizations is what produces a lot of the disappointing results we see. Many seemingly successful companies have tunnel vision, organizational constraints, and ignore emerging technologies and opportunities. They lack the flexibility to respond to the needs of the market and use outdated solutions to new problems. They fail to allow the vision, entrepreneurship, and risk necessary to succeed.
So what is the secret sauce to success? We need to look at what is increasingly emerging as a potential solution: the acceptance and reliance upon open systems and collaboration. Open systems have been around for a long time, but are becoming the norm for success. They reject bureaucracy, authority, hierarchy, and closed decision-making processes. They encourage participation, diversity, new rules, and to some extent, chaos.
Organizations need to be open to measurement and feedback. Understanding and sharing financials, operations reports, and sales reports are the first step. Basic research studies, social media, and other devices can be additional tools. You can also try adjusting management involvement through more inclusive approaches (this could include creating a safe company culture where everyone is encouraged to share ideas without judgment).
Managing probability and risk more efficiently can also provide greater opportunities. This includes both value and probability of success. For example, when lotteries increase, the odds of winning remain constant, but the value of winning increases dramatically. As uncertainty and change accelerate, probabilities can also fluctuate. Many analytical efforts are reduced by the volatility in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, which all need to be considered together. Getting excited or depressed about one year is erroneous. In general, the four years together provide a more positive and reasonable perspective than just one year alone.
When talking about change, we would be remiss not to mention resistance. Because where there is change, there is always varying degrees of resistance. As a result, winning opportunities can often be overlooked. For instance, have you hugged your best customers today? We frequently take our best customers for granted and don’t thank them enough, help them adapt to changes in their needs, or simply listen to their concerns.
Similarly, are you honestly assessing where you are experiencing success and failure? I can’t tell you how many clients are not tracking sales by product or account, measuring Internet results, or even monitoring traffic and success. These are incredible tools for understanding your strengths and acknowledging where there are opportunities to grow. We need to learn from failure rather than deny it and recognized when to abandon programs that aren’t working.
Finally, organizations often find themselves surprised by circumstances rather than consistently managing their environment in order to be prepared for change. On a number of different levels, factors like global warming, aging of the population, product life cycles, technology advancements, and the Internet are highly predictable. What is frequently missing is the acceptance that our world will always be in a constant state of change and the open-mindedness and flexibility required to respond and adapt effectively.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His team of experts will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
Skills are the groundwork for excellence. And the mastery of any skill requires time and commitment. While innovation is necessary for progress, skills are the backbone enabling advancement.
I recently had minor surgery to get a pacemaker. The experience, skills, and attention of the supporting nurses and staff were amazing. They know their jobs and execute the needs of the surgeons superbly. In a similar instance, it appears that Damar Hamlin, the football player, was saved by the skills of the emergency team that cared for him. They integrated knowledge, experience, and teamwork to revive and save him almost immediately.
We frequently underestimate the role of knowledge, experience, and skills in solving many issues. Take the Southwest Airlines holiday disaster as an example. The lack of knowledge, planning, and care led to a system-wide meltdown and the disruption of millions of travelers’ plans, from which they are still trying to recover.
In general, we neglect the importance of balancing planning, skills, and experience with innovation and intuition. The more history, expertise, and data, the more analytical and proven methods are preferred. The more uncertainty, change, and volatility, the more intuition and innovation are required. However, our organizations seem to be moving towards more uncertainty and volatility and, therefore, require more thought in our decision-making.
Utilizing skills to forecast and plan:
While we all value analysis and A.I. to improve results, we sometimes ignore the accuracy and validity of that analysis. The pandemic has made much of the data from 2019-2021 less reliable in forecasting. Economic, political, and environmental changes can impact the assumptions and process of our analysis. For example, higher winds and higher water temperatures from climate changes have worsened the impact of weather. Structural changes like the war in Ukraine, crime, and inflation can also affect our assumptions and analysis.
Timing and situation should also greatly affect analysis versus intuition. While many understand product life cycles, we forget how age, competition, and technology can affect our progress. For example, over 60% of advertising is over the Internet rather than traditional media. Age is another factor we frequently ignore. Many politicians and managers continue to serve despite waning capabilities and energy.
With uncertainty high in many areas, requiring more intuition and innovation in our planning, we can trust that skill and experience will successfully inform intuition.
Capitalizing on innovation:
There are many opportunities to capitalize on the need for intuition and innovation. The pandemic stimulated new opportunities like work from home and virtual learning that need to be allowed to reach their potential. For example, small Universities are sharing courses with other local Universities to expand the offerings to students. These need more analysis and objective thought rather than simple opinions to have success.
When dealing with innovation and change, psychological issues need to be managed rather than feared. Hatred and threats are the tools of the extremists. They need to be managed, understood and not allowed to disrupt our efforts. In particular, we need to build positive relationships and improve communication.
The most frequent issue inhibiting progress is bias. Our enthusiasm or mindset frequently cause us to overestimate markets, ignore competition, and not consider the issues in execution. Again, the more we can rely on skill, the more we can eliminate bias.
So, how can you balance innovation with skill to improve the way you run your business?
Replace Hierarchy.
Most organizations are based on hierarchy, but this system is obsolete and, more often than not, fails. It is a structure that rewards people at the top who may not be competent rather than seeking expertise. We should constantly be striving to improve and that is impossible to do if we rely on an inflexible system. The world is constantly changing and we need to adapt accordingly.
Informed decisions require a variety of input and diverse skills to manage that input. It’s always important to consider various perspectives and options. As technology becomes more complex, additional expertise, teamwork, resources, and responsibilities are required to manage operations.
Pay Attention to Data.
Frequently, we think we know best, even when data tells us otherwise. Too often, analytics are ignored due to pride or a “we’ve always done it this way” mindset. In recent years, data is informing us that consumers want to associate themselves with and buy from socially conscious companies. Taking a stance on social, environmental, and political issues is increasingly becoming a must-have for business success and consumer loyalty.
Focus on Process Not Plan.
Many experts tout that the holy grail of a successful business lies in the plan. However, the process of implementing that plan is far more important than the plan itself. Generally, plans are static, lack insight, and are missing operational details. Not surprisingly, this results in poor execution. For example, plans seldom predict and account for rapid changes in the economy. A successful plan is flexible and can adjust accordingly when those inevitable and unexpected obstacles arise.
Consider dieting. You can design a great weight loss program, but if you can’t properly implement that program into your lifestyle, you aren’t going to lose any weight.
Balancing intuition and skill doesn’t have to be as complicated as we make it out to be. Think about an incredible guitar player. Before they can write an incredible song or play a mind-blowing solo, they need to know the basics of playing the guitar. The same goes for any endeavor. Before you can get creative, you need to master the skills that will make your innovation a success.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His expert team will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
A year or so ago, I wrote about how fast change is occurring and how we needed to adapt faster. At that time the pandemic, unemployment, economic growth, and unequal worldwide wealth were among the key issues. Fast-forward and change is still happening faster than we seem to be able to adapt. However, the issues are also changing. Today, inflation, the war in Ukraine, crime, trust, and mental health seem to have taken over our focus.
In any discussion about change, it’s imperative that we look at the process of managing change as well as the specific issues being affected by it. In particular, we need to consider parameters, institutions, and processes.
When it comes to disruptive change, we must remember that parameters change. For example, inflation (which was a key economic factor, but has been relatively dormant) has suddenly become relevant again. The concern is that we may view inflation as too much of a crisis rather than a parameter to be considered. For example, decades ago, I supervised a company in Mexico that collected payments every day because inflation could eat up their profits.
A critical issue in managing change is the increased impact of social, economic, and political volatility in our institutions. In particular, the social aspects, which are frequently disruptive and somewhat new, have been underestimated. These include the pandemic, partisan politics, increased income inequality, and crime. Commodities like lumber and wheat, which traditionally trade in narrow ranges, are doubling and halving in a few months. Disruptions like supply chain, labor shortages, chips, and baby formula are happening regularly. In addition, these disruptions can take months rather than weeks to resolve.
The pandemic and economic recovery have produced imbalances in processes that analysts have failed to consider adequately in AI and other tools. Timing and reacting to special events have been a major missing element, especially where supply chains have long lead times. In addition, the problems are not recognized early in the process and the extent of fixes is underestimated. We also misjudge the interaction among factors. For example, rates and shipping times are not balanced in considering ocean shipping issues. We also underestimate the impact of virtual monopolies in industries like baby formula and computer chips. Thus, minor disruptions can cause major crises.
AI and other tools also assume you have proper information and can develop accurate analysis. The biggest problem is bias, which is frequently unknown or unintentional. I am reading about Apple after Steve Jobs and finding that the analysis, expertise. and skills are very impressive. However, their efforts are guided by many strategies, expectations, and even, “What would Steve do?” As a result, the analytical decisions can be compromised.
Focusing on the processes and solutions relating to change can improve our responses:
Parameters need to be managed to improve decisions.
Understanding the risk, the rewards, and the importance of interconnected issues can improve outcomes.
Don’t allow fear, uncertainty, or tradition to lower your potential and prevent you from trying something new.
This goes for both analytical and social issues. The realities and changes in parameters like populations, the economy, political environment, and social values should all be reviewed and considered regularly. The most important thing to keep in mind is that many variables are changing faster and more often than ever before. So, not only do you need to understand parameters, you need to keep up with the latest ones!
The bottom line is that change requires management and not just reaction. We can’t predict the future, but we can prepare for the unknown. Because how things change is just as important as what things change. When you have a better understanding of the “how,” you will be better equipped to respond to the “what.”
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. We guide your plans for business success and unlock your profits.Our strategy includes clear steps, and over 150 free articles and templates to facilitate your efforts and guide your process. We’re here to help you get on track and stay there as you move forward. We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write us at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at 914-632-6977
What is success? It’s abstract, really. For some, it could be money and status. For others, it’s finding happiness. In business, we tend to measure success starting with profit.
In talking to entrepreneurs, I am always fascinated with the different perspectives of success. In general, they believe their ideas are incredible and the obstacles they need to overcome are constraints like finance, resources, marketing, and competition.
I argue that their potential barriers are actually achieving excellence in developing and executing great programs. Why do I think this? Well, 90% of new businesses fail withing five years, and that includes IPOs and venture capital efforts.
Consequently, there are several issues that need to be addressed in order for entrepreneurs to reach their full potential. When an entrepreneur thinks about starting a business, there are two distinct concepts that pop up time and again: Passion and Reality. These are both critical to success.
Passion was best described by Steve Jobs when he said, “Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.”
Reality is understanding the problems, limitations, and constraints associated with any undertaking. As Thomas Edison said, “A vision without execution is hallucination.” Passion is what gives us the drive to overcome these obstacles. It is the excitement and energy that drive a start-up. It is crucial to balance these two concepts if you want to execute a successful business.
You also need more than a good idea—they’re a dime a dozen. Your best friend might have the next million-dollar App idea. Ideas are great as they are the true engines of innovation. However, an entrepreneur needs to determine whether they can execute the idea and, ultimately, make enough sales to earn a profit. New businesses frequently fail because small (yet critical) issues are overlooked.
Here are some recommendations to help increase potential:
Plan smartly. Think of planning as a long arduous test with lots of work, incorrect assumptions, and missing analysis. For example, 2022 financial markets haveclearly made prior economic and financial assumptions in any plan highly uncertain. The solution is to make plans simple, flexible, and solely for the entrepreneur and not outside parties. It should be a guide, not a fixed template.
Keep plans current and active. A business plan is not a document to be stored on a shelf; it should establish parameters and be developed, tested, and continuously revised. Even with a “perfect” business plan, there will be hiccups and failures along the way.
Learn from failures. This is a critical component of the ongoing planning process.
Focus on passion. This will keep you going through the failures. Additionally, a successful business plan should express why you think the business is a good idea and why it will succeed. If you need to dress it up in a suit and tie to show to investors, do that later. A business plan should be YOUR vision.
Set realistic goals. While time frames, levels, and processes can vary, you need a plan to show profitability: the when and the how. You may do what you do for a number of reasons (passion, fun, fulfillment), but at the end of the day, a business needs to make money if it’s going to last. Make sure that you set your passion aside for a moment and make sure you’re on the path to profitability. What resources do you have and need? Many entrepreneurs follow guides related to large venture capital ideas while most small businesses earn less than $1 million per year. Be pragmatic in these matters.
Take risks. This is a critical part of every entrepreneurial win. Frankly, I think we all need more of it. We tend to think of risk as a taboo concept and it’s really not—once you understand it. In order to benefit from risk, you need to define what risk is to you. Some people view risk as the potential for harm or hazard (think bungee jumping). I view risk as an uncertain circumstance in which one manages to maximize the gains. But, how do accomplish this?
Utilize analytics. More analytics in sports is creating opportunities to assess strengths/weaknesses and create new winning strategies. It has enabled athletes to take more three-point shots, hit more home runs, longer golf drives, and score more touchdowns. More knowledge = more informed decision = less risk.
Consider value and probability. These should inform your goals and processes. For example, winning the lottery has an extremely high reward, but also has low probability. Purchasing investment bonds has lower return than buying stocks, but the risk and volatility of buying stocks is higher.
Be flexible. There are a lot of moving pieces involved in a business plan. And curve balls are inevitable as our world is constantly changing.
Remember it’s an ongoing process. It takes time, dedication, and consistent effort. Peloton, which was one of the hottest companies in the country, recently experienced over a 25% decline in sales. So, we need to constantly compare goals, risk, and the potential of alternatives.
Listen to your gut. Sometimes you just have to go for it. We tend to overthink things or let fear stop us from challenging the status quo. But, if your intuition is telling you something, it’s usually worth listening.
Just as there is no single definition of success, there isn’t a certain path to achieve it either. But, you can set yourself up to increase your chances by creating clear goals and understand the risk, the rewards, and the importance of developing a smart business plan. And don’t forget your passion—the reason you started your business in the first place. Success isn’t fun if you’re not enjoying what you’re doing.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His expert team will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster.
Call (914) 632-6977 or email me at bshlensky@startupconnection.net. Don’t leave without signing up for our useful free eBook!
Feeling stumped or overwhelmed? Contact Bert at (914) 632-6977 or Email to start the process. Thanks!
