Imagine you’re taking a road trip. You’ve planned out your entire route. You know every highway you’re going to take and every stop you’ll make along the way. Now, imagine you’re following the directions you’ve made when suddenly there is a huge detour. A landslide is blocking the road—rocks and debris everywhere. What do you do? Forge ahead on the same dangerous path even though it would utterly ruin your car and cause you injury? No. Of course you wouldn’t do that. That would be dumb. You would find another, safer road to get to your destination successfully.
This is exactly why we need to realize that the best plans are flexible. Too many times, we create a plan and think that it’s final. But, how can something be final when you don’t know what variables will exist down the road (pun intended!)?
And yes, you do need a plan, but it needs to be dynamic and flexible so that it can adapt to changing circumstances. Long detailed business plans designed for a third party like an investor or a plan that has no flexibility are usually not productive because they are too static to be useful in a real-life scenario. A popular alternative, based on a variety of “lean startup principles,” is to skip the plan in favor of an organic plan that tests alternatives, measures, and adapts to changes in your business and the environment. Try to remember that the best plans are flexible.
A dynamic plan has some significant advantages. It allows you to examine options like a good, better, and best forecast. Dynamic plans also allow you to gain some understanding of the interaction of variables. For example, it can show you how variables like growth, marketing, operating expenses, and investment affect sales, profit, and growth. Most importantly, it encourages the exploration of alternatives rather than relying on a fixed model.
Developing a dynamic plan still requires covering traditional basics, such as:
Plans must balance the need to dream with the need to be realistic. The solution is frequently to develop backups, prepare for contingency, and accept failure. In particular, failure is often a requirement for success. Yet, we sometimes fail to recognize its value in the process of achieving success. For example, fear and uncertainty accelerate the concerns about failure. Many studies have shown that we are about twice as likely to avoid losses as pursue gains. We must listen to that little voice that whispers, “How will you know it won’t work if you don’t try?”
And, if it doesn’t work, you have more information to utilize for the next attempt.
Finally, setting clear goals is essential to an effective plan. As Mark Twain said, “If you don’t know where you are going any road will get you there.” The distinction between dynamic and focused are not contradictory. You need a concise summary of what the company is about and how it will achieve its mission. If you’re a human being living on Earth, you probably know that it’s very rare for things to go exactly as planned. Therefore, your business plan needs to focus on how your company will succeed in various circumstances. It should also define the target market, financial parameters, and define operational requirements. Understanding that the best plans are flexible will help you, and your business, succeed.
Remember, your plan is a tool—like a map—that is regularly considered, and modified when you come up against those landslides. Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business & President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. Please visit our website: www.StartupConnection.net for more information.
Have you ever assessed your decision making process? What are the factors you take into consideration? Too often, we neglect parameters and this is a mistake. Parameters must be included in our decision making in order to improve results.
What do I mean by this? Well, understanding risk, rewards, and the importance of various issues can help guide your decision. This includes both analytical and social issues. The realities and changes in parameters like populations, the economy, political environment, and social values should all be reviewed and considered regularly. The most important thing to keep in mind is that many variables are changing faster and more often than ever before. So, not only do you need to understand parameters, you need to keep up with the latest ones!
And while that may sound daunting, it’s the way it’s always been—change is inevitable and we must embrace it. So, don’t allow fear, uncertainty, or tradition to prevent you from trying something new.
For example, here are three different well-known approaches to decision-making. Which one are you and is it working for you?
Nike’s advice: JUST DO IT!
Steve Jobs: “Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.”
Traditional ideology: “We have always done it that way.
Now, here are some considerations to help improve our understanding of parameters and inform how we approach decision making to get better results:
Not making a decision is a decision. If you see the right choice and fail to act on it, that’s a mistake. For example, lots of people think about quitting their jobs, but few actually do. Similarly, we talk a lot about things like health, weight loss, reducing stress, saving money, and being more supportive, but seldom do we take action.
We assume cause and effect when the relationship can be spurious. One of the oldest questions on cause and effect is the proverbial chicken and egg issue. Statistics and other details make it very easy to assume that a relationship among factors is a straight line. However, most relationships involve a variety of factors, as shown in the chart below:
Analytics can produce better results, but intuition, risk, and low probabilities can be effective. We all know the lottery is a bad bet, but some people do win. Similarly, many billionaires like Gates, Bezos, and Jobs have achieved fame by pursuing high risk and out of the box alternatives. It is the outliers that create much of the innovation, excitement, and change in our society.
Forecasting parameters can improve decision making and identify great alternatives. What are you forecasting and how will it affect your actions? For example, the pandemic has altered time perspectives in developing and analyzing forecasts. 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 all have different parameters and need to be considered as such.
The biggest problem with parameters can be bias. Most bias, especially in small businesses, is simply human. Your assumptions, analysis, and data can all unknowingly affect assumptions. Analysis of different age groups like millennials and baby boomers can vary simply by using different starting and ending birth years.
One crucial aspect of parameters is risk and outcome, which are greatly affected by probability and information. Predicting results where there are significant and consistent historical data can be fairly simple; however, predicting results for new programs or with little or inconsistent data requires developing educated estimates.
Beware of confirmation bias. Don’t we want to believe that our ideas are terrific, and thus, focus more on their potential for success? Of course, we do. The challenges associated with the ideas are sometimes given a smaller amount of our attention; it’s just human nature. We bias our analysis towards successes and tend to ignore negatives. One business that has benefited greatly from this concept is the casino business.
Organizations need to be open to measurement and feedback. Observing, understanding, and sharing financials, operations reports, and sales reports are the first step. A management style such as “walking around” and checking in with employees can be priceless.
At the end of the day, you can improve assumptions, results, effort, and process by simply knowing your parameters and understanding the use of analytics and intuition in your decision processes. As the saying goes, “A chain is only as strong as its weakest link.” Make sure to figure out where your weak links are as well as your strengths.
Contact us for a FREE evaluation and get an alternative perspective on your business. We’d love to help you identify ways to adapt to current trends. No one has time for BS—so we’ll cut straight to the point and answer any questions you have. Reach us at:
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of StartupConnection.net, has an MBA and PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. He served as the President of WestPoint Pepperell’s apparel fabrics business & President and CEO of Sure Fit Products. More than 2,000 clients have benefitted from his business acumen over the course of his long career. He now focuses on working with select startups and small businesses. Please visit our website: StartupConnection.net for more information.
Establishing the value of your business investments can be difficult. While well-known valuation methods can give you a rough idea, ultimately your business is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it.
In 2001, there were over 1,000 public offerings. Few flourished and several lost much of their value or went out of business. The culprit seems to have been excessive forecasts and losses in addition to a decline in the economy and tech forecasts. Greed among many of the participants, including prominent venture capital and investment banking firms, was also a significant factor. As a result, there were few new issues in 2022 and they are only now starting up again in 2023.
In contrast, there are over 1 million new small business startups since the pandemic. While many have achieved their goals, a significant number of them never really became significant or will exit the market within 5 years. These are mostly individual or small entrepreneurial efforts with expectations of less than a few hundred thousand dollars in volume. Their goal is to provide income, growth, and a better lifestyle for the entrepreneur.
These differences illustrate the need to understand goals and parameters when analyzing the value of your business or stock. For example, retirees building a nest egg for their heirs have quite different perspectives from families who need their wealth to fund their own retirement. Additionally, much of our country’s wealth is concentrated in 5-10% of our population. Thus, in 2002, much of the tech stock decline had minimal impact on wealthy individuals while affecting the income of retirees with investments of less than $100,000.
A critical and frequently overlooked factor in evaluating investments is risk. Investors seem to be willing to take higher risks in order to get higher returns. Much of the debacle with the 2001 new issues was due to funding extreme forecasts with high risks. Venture capital firms do mitigate some of the risk by funding many deals and only needing a few successes. In contrast, most individuals are more risk averse, especially people planning retirement.
Tools and criteria to evaluate businesses greatly affect valuations as well. Long-term versus short-term, fixed versus variable streams of income, risk, growth versus income, and earnings can all affect perspectives. Just consider the variations in value between your home, a fixed pension, and tech stocks.
Special features like skilled employees, intellectual property or other special strengths of your business can increase investment value. A few years ago, “tech” was almost holy as an investment. Basic industries like autos, housing, retail, and utilities may have significant fluctuation as they are experiencing little long-term growth. In contrast, A.I. and electric cars seem to be the major hot industries today.
There are several standard techniques that can be used to provide a benchmark to determine the value of your business investments. Using different valuation methods can help you come up with a range of valuations for your business. Values are also affected by social, economic, and psychological environments. For example, values of sports teams have experienced unimaginable growth because of the desires and wealth of many billionaires.
Measures like P.E., present value and discounted cash flow are generally considered the standard for evaluating investments. One of the advantages is they can be analyzed to consider factors like annualized returns in order to compare investments. For example, growth companies will expect higher P.E.’s than stable companies.
Profits and cash are critical factors in evaluation particularly for small entrepreneurial companies. These measures need to be mitigated by benefits, taxes, and investments not apparent in cash benefits. For example, a significant advantage of many tech companies is the minimal investment aside from people and marketing. Thus buildings, factories, equipment etc. are not required. Even manufacturing is frequently contracted out to reduce investment and provide cheaper sourcing. Many public companies have also modified disbursements to owners. In particular, stock buy backs rather than dividends allow more flexibility and tax benefits.
The value of assets and liabilities in your investment is a critical factor in your valuation. These values can be significantly different from book value and need to be considered Real Estate valuations, and the ability to borrow money at reasonable interest rates is a critical consideration.
Startup or entry costs are also significant aspects of valuation. The valuation includes the costs of purchasing assets, developing products or services, recruiting and training staff, and building up a customer base. For example, a pharmaceutical company might want to choose between buying a biotechnology business and investing more in its own research and development operations.
Different industries also have their own rules of thumb that can be used to calculate a value of your business. For example, many retail businesses are valued as a multiple of turnover. Other common valuation methods are based on the number of customers, clicks, or the number of outlets. Industry rules of thumb like these are often used in sectors were buying and selling of businesses is common.
In summary, valuing your business and investments involves a number of considerations. What are your goals, constraints, risk levels, and alternatives? Plan ahead – the more time you have, the easier it will be to show your business in the best possible light. Sort out systems – strong management information and operating systems give the purchaser confidence that there won’t be any unpleasant surprises. Structure the transaction to maximize the price, process, and requirements. Consider issues like taxes, timing, and operations that can have an impact.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His team of experts will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
When it comes to change, are you focusing on the right issues? Just a few years ago, tech stocks like Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft accounted for over 50% of stock market growth and experienced 20-40% annual gains. Currently, they are experiencing slower growth and, consequently, laying off workers. Additionally, issues like climate change, immigration, and mental health are accelerating in importance and receiving little new attention.
Many businesses as well as political, religious, educational, and other institutions are facing crises because they fail to adapt. For example, it is generally accepted that pre-kindergarten programs dramatically impact education and long-term societal goals. Yet, few school systems nationwide have adapted them. Demographics make matters even more complex: Women will soon represent over 50% of the labor force, workers over 45 have increased from 31% to 41% of the population, and over 50% of births in the U.S. are non-white.
We need new approaches and strategies to properly address these changes.
Pricing is a great place to start when reexamining strategies. In general, companies price by old strategies related mostly to supply and demand. However, there are numerous alternatives available to increase sales, better serve the customer, and impact costs. One of the best examples is bunding and unbundling. Grocery stores like Wegmans have made significant gains in offering customers things like prepared meals, take out, meals to cook etc. that compete with restaurants and provide alternatives to cooking yourself. These are generally special produts at higher margins like all the Super Bowl offerings. The charcuterie board trend with prices ranging from $30-$100 is a great example of this markup. In contrast, marketers like Amazon and Costco are masters at unbundling and offering consumers value offerings with few amenities.
Today, businesses (large, mid-sized, small, and startups) and the business management need to focus more on openness, transparency, brainstorming, and support to stimulate innovation. We have seen and acknowledged the potential positive impact that open systems have on decisions, motivation, and profitability. Unfortunately, the reality is quite different, and they are rarely happening nor are they truly supported. Why is this? I would argue that it’s because business management is lacking a realistic view of many issues and the changing environment we live in.
The management structure of many organizations is what produces a lot of the disappointing results we see. Many seemingly successful companies have tunnel vision, organizational constraints, and ignore emerging technologies and opportunities. They lack the flexibility to respond to the needs of the market and use outdated solutions to new problems. They fail to allow the vision, entrepreneurship, and risk necessary to succeed.
So what is the secret sauce to success? We need to look at what is increasingly emerging as a potential solution: the acceptance and reliance upon open systems and collaboration. Open systems have been around for a long time, but are becoming the norm for success. They reject bureaucracy, authority, hierarchy, and closed decision-making processes. They encourage participation, diversity, new rules, and to some extent, chaos.
Organizations need to be open to measurement and feedback. Understanding and sharing financials, operations reports, and sales reports are the first step. Basic research studies, social media, and other devices can be additional tools. You can also try adjusting management involvement through more inclusive approaches (this could include creating a safe company culture where everyone is encouraged to share ideas without judgment).
Managing probability and risk more efficiently can also provide greater opportunities. This includes both value and probability of success. For example, when lotteries increase, the odds of winning remain constant, but the value of winning increases dramatically. As uncertainty and change accelerate, probabilities can also fluctuate. Many analytical efforts are reduced by the volatility in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, which all need to be considered together. Getting excited or depressed about one year is erroneous. In general, the four years together provide a more positive and reasonable perspective than just one year alone.
When talking about change, we would be remiss not to mention resistance. Because where there is change, there is always varying degrees of resistance. As a result, winning opportunities can often be overlooked. For instance, have you hugged your best customers today? We frequently take our best customers for granted and don’t thank them enough, help them adapt to changes in their needs, or simply listen to their concerns.
Similarly, are you honestly assessing where you are experiencing success and failure? I can’t tell you how many clients are not tracking sales by product or account, measuring Internet results, or even monitoring traffic and success. These are incredible tools for understanding your strengths and acknowledging where there are opportunities to grow. We need to learn from failure rather than deny it and recognized when to abandon programs that aren’t working.
Finally, organizations often find themselves surprised by circumstances rather than consistently managing their environment in order to be prepared for change. On a number of different levels, factors like global warming, aging of the population, product life cycles, technology advancements, and the Internet are highly predictable. What is frequently missing is the acceptance that our world will always be in a constant state of change and the open-mindedness and flexibility required to respond and adapt effectively.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His team of experts will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
Skills are the groundwork for excellence. And the mastery of any skill requires time and commitment. While innovation is necessary for progress, skills are the backbone enabling advancement.
I recently had minor surgery to get a pacemaker. The experience, skills, and attention of the supporting nurses and staff were amazing. They know their jobs and execute the needs of the surgeons superbly. In a similar instance, it appears that Damar Hamlin, the football player, was saved by the skills of the emergency team that cared for him. They integrated knowledge, experience, and teamwork to revive and save him almost immediately.
We frequently underestimate the role of knowledge, experience, and skills in solving many issues. Take the Southwest Airlines holiday disaster as an example. The lack of knowledge, planning, and care led to a system-wide meltdown and the disruption of millions of travelers’ plans, from which they are still trying to recover.
In general, we neglect the importance of balancing planning, skills, and experience with innovation and intuition. The more history, expertise, and data, the more analytical and proven methods are preferred. The more uncertainty, change, and volatility, the more intuition and innovation are required. However, our organizations seem to be moving towards more uncertainty and volatility and, therefore, require more thought in our decision-making.
Utilizing skills to forecast and plan:
While we all value analysis and A.I. to improve results, we sometimes ignore the accuracy and validity of that analysis. The pandemic has made much of the data from 2019-2021 less reliable in forecasting. Economic, political, and environmental changes can impact the assumptions and process of our analysis. For example, higher winds and higher water temperatures from climate changes have worsened the impact of weather. Structural changes like the war in Ukraine, crime, and inflation can also affect our assumptions and analysis.
Timing and situation should also greatly affect analysis versus intuition. While many understand product life cycles, we forget how age, competition, and technology can affect our progress. For example, over 60% of advertising is over the Internet rather than traditional media. Age is another factor we frequently ignore. Many politicians and managers continue to serve despite waning capabilities and energy.
With uncertainty high in many areas, requiring more intuition and innovation in our planning, we can trust that skill and experience will successfully inform intuition.
Capitalizing on innovation:
There are many opportunities to capitalize on the need for intuition and innovation. The pandemic stimulated new opportunities like work from home and virtual learning that need to be allowed to reach their potential. For example, small Universities are sharing courses with other local Universities to expand the offerings to students. These need more analysis and objective thought rather than simple opinions to have success.
When dealing with innovation and change, psychological issues need to be managed rather than feared. Hatred and threats are the tools of the extremists. They need to be managed, understood and not allowed to disrupt our efforts. In particular, we need to build positive relationships and improve communication.
The most frequent issue inhibiting progress is bias. Our enthusiasm or mindset frequently cause us to overestimate markets, ignore competition, and not consider the issues in execution. Again, the more we can rely on skill, the more we can eliminate bias.
So, how can you balance innovation with skill to improve the way you run your business?
Replace Hierarchy.
Most organizations are based on hierarchy, but this system is obsolete and, more often than not, fails. It is a structure that rewards people at the top who may not be competent rather than seeking expertise. We should constantly be striving to improve and that is impossible to do if we rely on an inflexible system. The world is constantly changing and we need to adapt accordingly.
Informed decisions require a variety of input and diverse skills to manage that input. It’s always important to consider various perspectives and options. As technology becomes more complex, additional expertise, teamwork, resources, and responsibilities are required to manage operations.
Pay Attention to Data.
Frequently, we think we know best, even when data tells us otherwise. Too often, analytics are ignored due to pride or a “we’ve always done it this way” mindset. In recent years, data is informing us that consumers want to associate themselves with and buy from socially conscious companies. Taking a stance on social, environmental, and political issues is increasingly becoming a must-have for business success and consumer loyalty.
Focus on Process Not Plan.
Many experts tout that the holy grail of a successful business lies in the plan. However, the process of implementing that plan is far more important than the plan itself. Generally, plans are static, lack insight, and are missing operational details. Not surprisingly, this results in poor execution. For example, plans seldom predict and account for rapid changes in the economy. A successful plan is flexible and can adjust accordingly when those inevitable and unexpected obstacles arise.
Consider dieting. You can design a great weight loss program, but if you can’t properly implement that program into your lifestyle, you aren’t going to lose any weight.
Balancing intuition and skill doesn’t have to be as complicated as we make it out to be. Think about an incredible guitar player. Before they can write an incredible song or play a mind-blowing solo, they need to know the basics of playing the guitar. The same goes for any endeavor. Before you can get creative, you need to master the skills that will make your innovation a success.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, president of Startup Connection, prides himself on his ability to define what is unique about each and every business. He works closely with individuals to develop a personalized approach that targets specific areas of concern and offers solutions based on his 40+ years of experience. His expert team will address your particular needs while working to save you time and money.
When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster.
Call (914) 632-6977 or email me at bshlensky@startupconnection.net. Don’t leave without signing up for our useful free eBook!
Feeling stumped or overwhelmed? Contact Bert at (914) 632-6977 or Email to start the process. Thanks!
