At some point, through everything COVID, we’ve all wondered: when will things return to normal? The short answer is: never. Things won’t (and can’t) return to the way they once were. And, despite extensive planning and attempts to reopen the economy, there will be change and it will usher in a new normal.
Nowhere is this more evident than with the economy. Every day we hear success stories like Peloton and Papa John’s Pizza who are absolutely thriving. However, this drowns out the noise of businesses like Hertz, JCPenney, J. Crew, and Wework who have gone (or are in the process of going) out of business. Everyone is touting the need to preserve and support small businesses with absolutely no idea how to save them. The reality is that hundreds of thousands of small business are no longer viable and will be gone. Industries such as airlines, travel, gyms, hotels, recreation, sports, and restaurants will need completely revamped models in order to survive.
The economic issues are compounded by the integration of social circumstances. Social distancing is the elephant in the room and it’s completely disrupting many industries: 25% to 50% restaurants, hotels, airlines, and theaters cannot function (profitably) this way. Simultaneously, we are learning to like and, perhaps even enthusiastically, incorporate certain aspects of the current situation into our daily lives. Working from home, delivery and take out, and Zoom meetings are all becoming preferred activities.
An obvious game changer would be a vaccine. However, the uncertainty of when and how that might happen leaves us with no choice but to forge ahead with the information we have and the circumstances in which we currently we find ourselves. So, let’s examine some obvious changes that need to be managed to get to a new normal:
- Office space, rush hour, lunchtime eating, and traffic will reduce by at least 15-30% as working from home becomes largely preferred.
- Entertainment, sports, restaurants, and travel will reduce by 15-30% as patronage drops due to capacity limits / spacing requirements, cleaning protocols, and other restrictions.
- 2020 is and will continue to be a chaotic disaster. There is already overwhelming uncertainty regarding a vaccine, the virus itself, the economy, unemployment, education, the upcoming election, and increased social unrest in the form of protests.
- Many forms of stress release have been taken away or changed due to the stay-at-home order (i.e. entertainment, exercise, visiting with friends). Unmanaged stress can lead to depression, unhealthy behaviors, and increased instances of family abuse.
- Other major concerns: absorbing shutdowns, 10% unemployment rate, 100,000 virus deaths, -5% GDP decline, and a few more government stimulus programs.
- As states start the process of reopening the economy and more businesses and schools startup again, we might expect a second wave of the virus followed by another (full or partial) shutdown.
Therefore, amidst all of the uncertainty and change, it’s absolutely necessary to focus on stabilizing, developing alternatives, and accepting that a new normal is inevitable.
In contrast, 2021 could offer some huge opportunities and a turnaround in regard to many of the things above. The election, fewer deaths, 4-7% unemployment, 2-5% economic growth, and a gradual relocation / increase of public activities are fairly reasonable predictions.
So, how do we move forward effectively?
- Hope for a vaccine should not be discarded, but it also shouldn’t be counted on.
- Don’t get distracted looking for quick solutions rather than attempting to implement new paradigms. Drive-in movies and restaurants may be nice temporary activities, but they are not long-term solutions. Meanwhile, opportunities to work-from-home and Zoom calls are providing whole new structural alternatives. The problem, however, is that we need to maximize their potential rather than just settling for their existence.
- The pandemic has shed light on the fact that many of our institutions (such as schools, health care, social services, and retirement homes) are extremely broken and require structural change. We need to learn to focus on developing great programs rather than simply putting Band-Aids on problems. For example, nursing homes should be smaller and more patient-centered instead of resembling an overstocked warehouse. Many nursing homes have very diverse populations grouped together with little hope or expertise to service individual needs.
- Many other businesses and industries (like post offices) are changing as well. Discussions generally focus on close, fund, or shrink, but alternatives (such as changing models, merging, adding programs etc.) should receive more attention. For example, I have an apparel client who is now making masks and safety equipment. Shifting needs requires shifting business models.
- Remote efforts, technology, and innovation are the key trends to keep an eye on. Activities and services that require crowds and/or physical contact will continue to be problematic. I think much of the discussion to follow will be about the technologies regarding issues like social distance in public (i.e. elevators) and how to improve working from home. We have the opportunity to create new work environments and should start by considering the goals, strengths, and constraints. For example, it’s easy to advocate only allowing half the people in an elevator at a time, but that doesn’t get thousands of people up the elevator of a 30-story building in a timely manner.
- Everyone tries to discount politics in forecasting, but it is critical during this period. I believe the Democrats will have a landslide in all areas including state and local government. This would certainly embrace climate change, infrastructure, education, health care, taxing the 1%, immigration, and social rights. Less of a landslide or loss would bring about very different changes. Either way, we must incorporate our assumptions into our actions and not ignore politics simply because it’s an uncomfortable topic.
While we’re still not sure what exactly the new normal will require, we do know many of the opportunities and challenges that will come with it. Avoid engaging in obsolete or doomed activities and, instead, embrace innovation, testing, and new paradigms. All cultural change starts with openness, includes a focus on infrastructure and measurement, and requires an awareness of biases. And, ideally, those steps lead the way to cultural change that ends in positive progress.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. This combination has been the key to client success. We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write him at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at: 914-632-6977