When we discuss misinformation, lying is the most common focus. However, there are numerous other types of misinformation. In particular wrong information, missing information, and unavailable information are key challenges that need to be addressed and possible resolutions provided.
We underestimate the importance of simply wrong information in our decision-making. Sources can change, measurements can be incorrect, and suddenly we’re faced with a bunch of errors that inhibit making accurate conclusions and better decisions.
Economic Forecasting, COVID-19 Impact and Embracing Humility
Many economists and forecasters were mostly wrong in forecasting a recession in 2023. While they understood inflation, they ignored the growth in employment, the economy, and consumer spending. Similarly, we are still adapting to the impact of COVID-19 on current analysis. The shifts from 2020 in almost everything from vaccine practices and death rates to how we consume entertainment to remote work must be considered as we’re considering decisions.
Changes in retail, wars, labor battles, politics, etc. are all causing disruptions in our understanding. And because we lack information and experience on issues like electric cars, A.I. and immigration, we’re in the dark and that makes it far more difficult to be able to make the best decisions.
Critical thinking isn’t just about spotting logical fallacies or identifying bias. It’s about fostering an attitude of intellectual humility, a willingness to admit we don’t know everything and to change our minds when presented with new evidence. It’s about creating a habit of asking, “Is this true? What’s the source? Are there alternate viewpoints?”.
Psychological Constraints in Risk Assessment
Certainty and risk both play a big role in misinformation. We need to understand the probability and value of decisions. We need to understand all the information that is available to us – background, probabilities, and parameters – which can greatly impact outcomes.
Figuring out risks, however, can sometimes be tricky, due to several psychological constraints:
People tend to take more risks to win back losses and less risks to follow up on winnings.
Marketers love to push our pain points and focus on our fears.
We overestimate our skills and luck, as shown in the betting industries, where huge profits are made based on countless people believing that they can beat the odds.
Navigating Bias from Statistical to Social Influences
Bias is one of the greatest complications when it comes to making accurate decisions. Professionals usually focus on statistical problems, but things like demographics, measurement, and timing matter as much, if not more. Remember, your data is only as good as your worst input.
But I think social bias – our preconceived ideas about things – is more misleading than statistical bias. Culture and the environment also factor into bias, affecting how we see things. For instance, in presentations, I’ve learned that having food available to the attendees is a hit. I’ve also learned to never be the last speaker. Past experiences and what we want to see can also cloud our judgment more than future expectations.
Misinformation in Setting Parameters, Taboo Topics and Cause-Effect Confusions
Misinformation also messes with understanding our decision parameters. We tend to see decisions as win-lose but flipping that to a “win-win” mindset can be a game-changer. We often miss out on opportunities because we underestimate the chances of everyone coming out on top.
Misinformation is prevalent in topics we tend to avoid discussing – things like religion, sex and I.Q. Santa Claus is one of the only exceptions where it seems proper to include misinformation.
Cause and effect are frequently misused in reaching decisions as well. Figuring out what really causes what, citing wrong connections, and mixing up relationships with causes – those are all common errors.
Trusting Intuition and Debunking “Bubbbe Meise”
Sometimes you must ignore some of the information and just listen to your gut. In Yiddish, there is the word “bubbbe meise” which basically translates to “old wise tales”. This would include things like chicken soup being a cold cure, or the 5 second rule where it’s safe to eat something that’s fallen on the ground if it hasn’t been there for more than 5 seconds, knocking on wood for luck, and numerous unproven folklore we follow.
My favorite is the 60-40 investment rule which has been wrong for over 10 years. We tend to overthink things or we let fear stop us from taking risks, but there is no gain without trying and no reward without risk. If your intuition is telling you something, it’s usually worth listening.
Measurement Challenges: From Gym Scales to Performance Metrics
Measurement is a clear issue in misinformation. For instance, my scale at the gym had me excited because it showed I’d lost 10 pounds over a few months. However, when I went to the doctor, that scale showed only 4 pounds lost.
So how do we improve goal setting and measurement? The first step is to think about it and consider more details and considerations. Long-term versus short-term, quantitative versus qualitative, risk and caution, objective versus subjective all need to be considered in setting goals. We also need to consider the process and complexity of measurement. For example, do you want specific, general or directional results?
Measurement has become similarly complex. How important are results, speed, motivation, innovation, and quality in measuring performance?
For example, I believe automation has improved the speed and efficiency of many customer service processes. However, customer service and satisfaction are frequently sacrificed for that automation. How many times have we been completely frustrated with ineffective electronic customer service efforts?
Promoting Social Responsibility in Fact-Checking
How do we nurture the social responsibility of fact-checking? First, let’s normalize it. Make fact-checking a routine part of how we interact with information. From the news articles we read to the social media posts we share; each piece of information should go through a fact-checking filter.
Similarly, the bandwagon effect can propel us to jump on board with popular yet baseless narratives. Understanding these psychological tendencies is key to unravelling why misinformation can sometimes be so tricky.
Let’s remember that misinformation isn’t just a problem of the information era; it’s a human problem, rooted in our cognition and emotions. By acknowledging this, we can begin to address misinformation in a more holistic way, weaving psychological insights into our strategies to counter false narratives.
Let’s strive to understand not just the ‘what’ of misinformation, but also the ‘why’. After all, knowing our adversary is half the battle won. And in this fight against misinformation, a solid understanding of the human psyche is a weapon we cannot afford to neglect.
Dr. Bert Shlensky earned a PhD from the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T., mentored a few thousand clients at Score and in his own practice, grew Sure Fit products from $50 million to $150 million in sales, including $60 million of direct internet sales, was President of WestPoint Pepperell’s Apparel Fabrics Business and headed the $400 million Culet Shirt Group. Dr. Bert knows what works and can help lead your company to greater profitability and success. For a free initial consult, reach out at bshlenksy@startupconnection.net or 914-632-6977.
In a world saturated with negativity, particularly in the wake of the pandemic, it’s high time we shift our focus towards opportunities and unlocking our true potential. Let’s explore some straightforward guides that strike a balance between wisdom and relatability.
Begin with a sprinkle of wisdom. Consider these two thought-provoking quotes:
George Bernard Shaw once mused, “Some people see things as they are and say why? I dream things that never were and say, why not?”
Sheryl Sandberg, addressing the self-doubt that still holds many women back, challenges us with, “What would you do if you weren’t afraid?”
The Realities: A Charted Journey
We all crave success, but let’s not be blind to the ups and downs of the journey. Picture this – a chart revealing the common, bumpy ride to success. It’s a visual cue that appearances can be deceiving, much like those optical illusions where all the lines are r the same length.
Diverse Paths of Entrepreneurship
There are different approaches to entrepreneurship that we sometimes fail to recognize.On one side, big company are all about growth and raising capital, as seen in the fact that 83% of IPOs in the last year were in the red. On the flip side, the majority of entrepreneurs are simply hustling to make ends meet year after year.
Much of corporate innovation is focused is on uncovering superior or novel solutions to existing challenges. Picture this: car companies investing years in refining combustible engines, retailers dedicated to enhancing the shopping experience, and giants like IBM striving to build bigger and better computers.
And yet there’s a whole other league of companies carving a different path. Their mission is to develop entirely new solutions. This shift has given birth to groundbreaking innovations like the electric car, the E-Commerce revolution, and the ever-expanding realm of cloud computing – all championed by these visionary new players. It’s a dynamic landscape where established players and fresh faces alike are shaping the future.
Embracing Change: Cooperation and Collaboration
Change is the only constant, and it’s time to adapt. Cooperation, collaboration, and embracing new resources are the keys to evolving. The game-changer is recognizing that taking risks isn’t synonymous with failure. Testing alternatives to find optimal solutions and gaining experience are crucial aspects of success. Risk is a critical part of every decision. And, frankly, I think we all need more of it. We tend to think of risk as a taboo concept when it’s really not—once you understand it.
Balancing Vision and Execution
“Vision without execution is hallucination,” echoes the wisdom of Thomas Edison.
While we celebrate excellence, we often overlook opportunities to do things better. Streamlining processes, cutting unnecessary costs, and tackling bureaucracy can enhance organizations. Customer service is a function where companies can devote new efforts to improve. Pricing is not a dirty word, and there are numerous tools to improve results without deteriorating your brand. All these actions can contribute to progress and improvement if an organization embraces them.
Battling Bias: The Unseen Culprit
Bias lurks in the background, often leading to unreliable results. Here’s the thing. We love to be right and hate to be wrong. Acknowledging and challenging bias is crucial. The “It won’t happen to me” mindset can be a silent contributor to unexpected volatility. Our brain, working surreptitiously in the background, doesn’t alert us too how biased we actually are. Recognize this unseen force, and decisions become more informed.
Injecting Fun: The Secret Sauce
Don’t forget the fun element!
As Steve Jobs wisely stated, “The only way to do great work is to love what you do.”
And Walt Disney’s advice to “Do what you do so well that they will want to see it again and bring their friends” emphasizes the joy in mastering just having fun.
Tools for Excellence: Reaching Higher Potential
Armed with these insights, recognize the toolbox available to enhance excellence and unlock higher potential. Realistic goals, strategic plans, understanding risks, biases, and having the confidence to embrace your potential – it’s all part of the journey. So, strike that balance, enjoy the ride, and let’s embark on the path to unlocking our fullest potential.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. This combination has been the key to client success. We welcome comments, suggestions and questions You can write him at bshlensky@startupconnection .net or call at 914-632-6977
We all recognize the importance of change, but also need to consider volatility in affecting change.
Take the stock market, for example – it’s like a rollercoaster influenced by economic twists, social vibes, and market moods. Recently, in 2023, the S&P 500 went up 17% from January to July, then down 11% from July to October, only to bounce back up by 11% from October to November. Minimally, you should evaluate investing for short-term change or simply investing for the longer term.
Rapid Evolution in Our World
Our world is evolving fast. Technology, our tastes, and what’s considered normal are flipping markets on their heads. Leisure, travel, and entertainment are booming unexpectedly. Even the diet industry is getting a facelift thanks to new drugs helping people shed pounds. It’s a game-changer.
Social, political, and economic events are regularly disrupting our environment. From weather havoc to terrorism, it seems like endless crises.
Managing Unpredictability
How do we handle all this unpredictability? First, we’ve got to understand volatility and figure out how to manage it. When bridges suddenly collapsed in Philadelphia and Los Angeles, they were fixed in record time – thanks to clear goals, teamwork, and innovative solutions. We need the same approach for everything, from health issues as we age to dealing with climate events and political shake-ups.
Take our health, for instance. As the years pile on, it’s a good idea to play offense. Waiting for a health crisis to hit is like playing catch-up. Hitting the gym, eating a bit healthier, and throwing in regular checkups are like the MVPs in the game of avoiding health rollercoasters. Same goes for other bumpy rides, like dealing with the economy, wild weather, or political shake-ups.
Look at how we’ve been stepping up our game in handling weather drama like fires and hurricanes. It’s all about staying on top of things, being ready, and finding solutions. That’s the playbook we can follow for other curveballs that life throws our way.
Emphasizing Communication and Cooperation
Communication, coordination, and cooperation should be our priorities. Fire departments focus on safety and prevention rather than just enforcing laws. Why can’t we do the same for issues like crime, making things better between police and communities?
Rethinking Progress and Success While Being Aware of Bias and Risk
It’s time to rethink progress and success. We’ve made huge strides in areas like reducing smoking and drunk driving. Reviewing plans is important, but we need to do it together and be open to expert advice for better problem-solving.
Don’t forget about bias and risk: Bias is, perhaps, the biggest culprit in unreliable results. “It won’t happen to me” may be the greatest cause of unexpected volatility. Here’s the thing. We love to be right. We hate to be wrong. So, we will go to extraordinary lengths to make sure that we’re proven correct. And we won’t even know we’re doing it. Our brain, working surreptitiously in the background, doesn’t alert us too how biased we actually are.
Creating a Supportive Environment and Setting Specific Goals
Creating a supportive environment, both physically and socially, can help us deal with crises better. This includes a safe, productive and supportive physical space, along with social and businesses practices that are fair, consistent and understood can significantly add to the capability to deal with crises.
Getting specific with goals and solutions is key. We all get the importance of goals, but sometimes we spend too much time pointing fingers instead of finding solutions. Take a cue from success stories like fire safety and emergency highway repairs.
It’s all about staying open and analytical. Businesses need to understand their environment, learn from both wins and losses, and be open to new ideas. In other words, don’t be like Jack Nicholson saying, “You can’t handle the truth.”
Embracing Change for Better Solutions
In a nutshell, recognizing that change and ups and downs happen is the first step to tackling problems. We need tools to understand and predict change – just like we do with things like COVID and flu shots. Being prepared and understanding volatility will lead us to better solutions and alternatives.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. We guide your plans for business success and unlock your profits.Our strategy includes clear steps, and over 150 free articles and templates to facilitate your efforts and guide your process. We’re here to help you get on track and stay there as you move forward.
We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write us at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at 914-632-6977.
Let’s talk about rationality – that concept we all agree is generally a good thing. Thanks to technology and analytics, we’ve got tools like GPS making our lives simpler and less stressful. But, as with most things, rationality comes with its set of challenges that we can’t just overlook.
Now, can we solve these challenges with just rational thought?
It’s a bit like Steve Jobs said, “Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.”
But then again, Thomas Edison adds a dose of reality with, “A vision without execution is hallucination.”
Rationality and analytics can be invaluable when it comes to making decisions based on models, probability, risk, and numbers. Take our firm’s analytics, for instance – it’s been a game-changer, helping clients focus on the 20% of customers or products driving 80% of their sales. Sports managing, betting and coaching decisions, too, have seen significant improvement with better analytics.
But let’s not forget the magic of intuition, creativity, passion, and out-of-the-box thinking. The fast, experiential vibe of these elements considers factors that analysis often misses. They’re almost essential for dealing with change, uncertainty, and creativity, like in supply chain management.
George Bernard Shaw said it best, “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”
When we throw in a curveball like COVID, and rationality gets trickier. Forecasting for 2020 became a special event, shaking up models for everything from workers going back to the office, students going back to the classroom, airline passenger growth, business meetings, to apparel and entertainment trends.
When you’re dealing with complex goals, things can get a bit tricky. One common challenge is figuring out how to balance growth and profit. Lately, venture capital firms have been switching gears, putting more emphasis on profit to get better returns. Then there’s higher interest rates, inflation, and moderation in the growth of technology. In addition, there’s juggling issues like supply chain hiccups, managing teams, dealing with the ever-shifting political scene, and other surprise curveballs. Take, for example, the rise in retail store theft, which has become a critical factor that’s impacting how both individual stores and big chains perform.
Do we have the information to be rational? Assumptions, demographics, time periods – they all play a role. Our perceptions can be deceiving, too. Sample surveys versus actuals show us that what we think might be rational can be way off.
Rational thought must be carefully reviewed for bias. Bias is a tricky player in the rationality game. Right-brain and left-brain thinking are different beasts, and biases are often just human. Our recent experiences can color our decisions, and analysts love their formulas, but most bias is just plain human.
Testing, measurement, and examining alternatives can improve rational analysis. How do we make rational thought work? Test, measure, and explore alternatives. Plans often fall flat because they’re too one-dimensional for our complex world. For example, branding, marketing, pricing and operations must all be viewed as an integrated program rather than separate and isolated activities.
Understanding your data can significantly improve the validity of analysis. Before getting started, be sure to understand your data. Demographics matter – the Southwest is a whole different ball game from the Northeast.
Define your parameters as well. Who’s your audience? With 330 million people in the U.S., about 40% are over 65 or under 18. 164 million are in the labor force, 30% are black and Hispanic and around 50% of most age groups are men. These totals vary considerably by region, age, and ethnic background.
Be sure not to overlook the key elements of success – operations, customer service, and logistics are just as vital as the traditional functions.
Remember that sometimes analytics can trip over its own feet. Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Simony, and Cass Sunstein, in their book Noise, point out that it can miss key metrics like mood, bias, mental state, and the like, can alter judicial decisions. Variables like hunger, how well-rested we are and personal preferences can all affect decisions. As a personal example, I’m diabetic and regular meals is a critical aspect of my lifestyle to avoid excess stress, mood swings, depression and anger.
Rationality can add complexity to simple solutions. Simplify where you can. Predicting the stock market is made overly complex while simple factors may do better, and key players matter more in sports than we often think.
Focus on factors that most affect your decisions so you can understand them and estimate factors that are not as significant. For example, look at aggregate costs and administrative expenses rather than trying to forecast small items like telephone, utility, and insurance costs.
Risk requires more personal factors be considered more than many rational models. Retirement recommendations based solely on drawing down assets might not cut it in our world of growth, low interest rates, and low inflation.
Confidence and emotion alter analytical solutions Nike’s “just do it” mantra and Sheryl Sandberg’s “What would you do if you weren’t afraid?” both speak to the power of emotion in decision-making. We often avoid actions due to fear or public perception rather than assessing potential success.
A lot of the push for giving out “participation prizes” is about making activities less stressful and competitive. On the flip side, watching kids take their first steps or ride a bike is extra special because of the joy they feel in their own success. Our feelings – whether it’s passion, dislike, or bias – really shape how we think, especially in things like love, sports, and just having fun. Sometimes, our perceptions and habits lead us to believe things that aren’t true.
Recently, scientists have been looking into how we make choices and have found that we often play it safe, avoid shaking things up, and stick to what’s comfortable.
More so, our emotions and actions are also influenced by the timing of things. When there’s a big tragedy, like a terror attack, bad weather, or war, there’s this immediate call for action and commitment. But as time passes, the costs and tradeoffs start piling up, and that sense of urgency fades away.
Rationality can be expanded to be more effective. How do we amp up rationality? Be open, embrace change, and be willing to improve and accept outside advice. Organizations need to share, understand, and observe their data. And in the end, let’s maximize rational thought but keep our eyes wide open to alternatives, assumptions, and limitations. After all, more analytics can generally be useful for small businesses, but it’s crucial that the foundation is solid.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. Our strategy includes clear steps, and over 150 free articles and templates to facilitate your efforts and guide your process. We’re here to help you get on track and stay there as you move forward. You might start with our quick video.
We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write us at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at 914-632-6977
When faced with negative feedback our common reaction is to immediately defend ourselves with our own rationale. But what if we took a moment to really dig into that feedback, understand what it’s telling us, and use it as a catalyst for improvement?
Negative feedback is usually a result of disappointment.
Negative feedback typically comes when we’ve fallen short of expectations. But let’s not forget that testing things, making mistakes and learning along the way is a crucial part of solving problems.
Remember Wayne Gretzky’s wise words: “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Let’s embrace the feedback and see where it can take us.
The nature and source of negative feedback needs to be understood and resolved.
Instead of shooting the messenger, let’s focus on what the feedback is saying. Take economists predicting gloom and doom, for instance. They underestimated factors like consumer behavior, post-pandemic recovery, and the increased participation of women in the workforce. Preschool, for example, is a game-changer for working mothers.
The basis of negative feedback needs to be understood.
Understanding the root of negative feedback is key. The pandemic has thrown data into chaos, with more volatility than we’re used to. We need to scrutinize the sources, consistency, demographics, and how we measure it all. Factors like climate change, politics, demographics, and uncertainty affect our data parameters. Does anyone really think Taylor Swift’s attendance at games is boosting the Kansas City Chief’s scores?
How much do bias and opinion affect negative feedback?
Bias and opinion play a big role in how we perceive negative feedback. Entrepreneurs often have unwavering faith in their ventures despite the harsh reality that 90% of startups fail within five years. Sports fans are no different, believing their team can win even when odds are stacked against them. Go Bears!
Bias creeps in when we ignore relevant information, especially when it comes to social and environmental issues. But the simplest things, like saying “please” and “thank you” and asking people “how are you?” can go a long way in building relationships. And bias is highly influenced by circumstances – getting pulled over by a cop feels very different from seeing one protect a place of worship.
Focus on facts rather than opinions or the general nature of the source.
We need to shift our focus from opinions and the source’s general nature to facts. Negative feedback can be valuable and constructive, regardless of how it’s delivered. We must address issues like crime, prejudice, climate change, hatred and safety collaboratively and without political bias. We need to take context into account. For example, when it comes to parenting, supporting toddlers learning to walk is a far cry from teaching teens to drive.
Recognize the existence of the individual agenda.
Let’s take the work-from-home debate. Arguments for and againstoften boils down to personal situations and opinions rather than hard facts. For people with long commutes and individually focused jobs, productivity and satisfaction can be improved by working from home. In contrast, jobs that require significant interaction and collaboration benefit more from working together in an office environment. However, the real question should be about productivity and what it means in each context, a question that often seems to be missing from the conversation.
We need to focus on the positive and not just the negatives.
Let’s also celebrate the positives, not just dwell on the negatives. Drunk driving, heart attacks, women’s rights, civil rights, safety, and smoking have all seen significant improvements in recent years. More women are becoming CEOs (currently 15% at public companies), and road fatalities have declined drastically. We should channel our energy into breaking down barriers and seizing opportunities to do more to support these and similar efforts than focus energy on the negatives.
Focus on solutions and not excuses.
Fear, uncertainty, unrealistic goals, and a reluctance to accept mistakes can all lead to excuses. In contrast, embracing risk, maintaining confidence, learning from errors, accepting the unknown, and setting clear, achievable goals can vastly improve performance.
Understand, monitor and react to negative feedback.
Lastly, we need to understand, monitor, and react to negative feedback. It’s too easy to ignore, forget, or downplay the negatives in areas like health, performance, climate, and safety. We need to acknowledge these issues and continue to support positive practices. For example, staying home when sick is becoming a more accepted practice than spreading illness at work or at school.
In Anne Duke’s book Quit, she discusses how terms like grit, persistence, confidence are common management recommendations. She says, “Grit can get you to stick to hard things that are no longer worthwhile. The trick is figuring out the difference.”
However, terms like quit, fail, lose, etc. all have negative connotations. For example, when I was a new consultant at SCORE, I expressed my disappointment at the large number of people we were unable to help. The response was, “One of the best things we do at SCORE is to help people keep their day jobs”, as if the mere desire to quit a day job to strike out on one’s own was something to squash.
Measurement is also a critical tool for evaluating success, failure and potential. For example, I’m type 2 diabetic and have blood tests done every three months to adjust my behavior and medications. Managing diabetes involves constant monitoring and modifications of diet, exercise and medication. Recently I had added a drug with weight loss potential and have lost over 15 pounds in four months. The next goal is to test how that affects other factors involved.
In the end, it’s about finding solutions to negative feedback and the data that’s been excavated from it. Constructive criticism offers an opportunity for improvement. On the flipside, when feedback is irrelevant, it’s okay to let it go. What long experience has taught me is that getting defensive or ignoring feedback won’t improve anything. Instead, let’s use it to inspire understanding, explore alternatives, and craft better solutions.
Dr. Bert Shlensky, President of www.startupconnection.net, offers experience, skills, and a team devoted to developing and executing winning strategies. Our strategy includes clear steps, and over 150 free articles and templates to facilitate your efforts and guide your process. We’re here to help you get on track and stay there as you move forward. You might start with our quick video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhZ3LvSmZfw
We welcome comments, suggestions, and questions. You can write us at: bshlensky@startupconnection.net or call at 914-632-6977.
When you want to stand out, reach out to Bert for the tools that will build your “sticky” brand. My focus is on understanding and analyzing your dilemmas and challenges, so your company becomes profitable faster.
Call (914) 632-6977 or email me at bshlensky@startupconnection.net. Don’t leave without signing up for our useful free eBook!
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